Paragon Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, we probably wouldn't get a bust like April 1997 again these days...that was forecast as a pretty good storm, but nobody was forecasting widespread 30"...or really even half that the day before the storm. We still get some big changes inside of 36 hours though...I do remember the nowcast bust of 1/27/11. Will, what was it about that storm that delivered such historic totals so late in the season? This is a highly energetic storm with widespread foot plus flooding down here with lots of power outages but that storm was in a class by itself. I heard it mentioned that this storm is basically the April Fools Blizzard but shifted further north into Central New England, which is where they'll get the two foot totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 fwiw, rgem has an orgy with orh to snh and nema with the ccb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Will, what was it about that storm that delivered such historic totals so late in the season? This is a highly energetic storm with widespread foot plus flooding down here with lots of power outages but that storm was in a class by itself. I heard it mentioned that this storm is basically the April Fools Blizzard but shifted further north into Central New England, which is where they'll get the two foot totals. This storm is nothing like March 31-April 1, 1997...even displaced to the north....that one was a monster cutoff that was in the process of rapidly deepening. This is a bowling ball, but smaller and less intense. Just a different league. It's an impressive storm no doubt for this time of year, but the '97 storm was just so much more intense, and larger. Anytime you hear about dynamics...'97 is a good poster child and it's why it was so prolific even that late in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 1, 2017 Author Share Posted April 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: 29.5F SN 4.9" new (0.8" past hr) Crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you're surprised its sleeting, you should probably find a new hobby. NBD. Its still doing this in 5 hours, then we'll talk. Hopefully nobody is surprised if they have been following models or this thread. I am surprised we didn't get just a little more snow on the front end because the dynamics were decent here in the early afternoon but now, pleasantly pleased with the current sleet hammer that is in progress. I'll be happy if we flip and throw 3-4" on top of the half inch of pellets. To me that will be a decent late season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 3.0". Mix of sleet and snow grains now. The vis was noticably lower with more flakes mixed in once I got above the MA/NH border on my way home on 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 This could be the biggest event of the season for the seacoast of NH....on April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This storm is nothing like March 31-April 1, 1997...even displaced to the north....that one was a monster cutoff that was in the process of rapidly deepening. This is a bowling ball, but smaller and less intense. Just a different league. It's an impressive storm no doubt for this time of year, but the '97 storm was just so much more intense, and larger. Anytime you hear about dynamics...'97 is a good poster child and it's why it was so prolific even that late in the year. Question is, with the type of storminess that we've seen in late winter seasons and early springs just prior to big el ninos (and the pattern forecasted for the next 10 days bringing more storms), does this give us a hint of a big el nino coming for next winter? Funny winter, 96-97. You were bookended by two huge snowstorms and the middle of the winter was boring. But it was all worth it for the thundersnow of December 1996 and the Fools Day Blizzard in 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Question is, with the type of storminess that we've seen in late winter seasons and early springs just prior to big el ninos (and the pattern forecasted for the next 10 days bringing more storms), does this give us a hint of a big el nino coming for next winter? Funny winter, 96-97. You were bookended by two huge storms and the middle of the winter was boring. But it was all worth it for the thundersnow of December 1996 and the Fools Day Blizzard in 1997. I doubt the storminess itself will tell us much about El Nino next winter. But you're right that some big ones have occurred before super Ninos....April '82 being the notable other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I doubt the storminess itself will tell us much about El Nino next winter. But you're right that some big ones have occurred before super Ninos....April '82 being the notable other. Yep, I wonder if we'll see something like either of those big late season storms in our lifetime again. April 1982 for its extreme cold alone is something I've never experienced outside of that one week period in 4/1982. The dry powdery snow that seemed so out of place for April is something I'm not sure I'll ever experience again either. And 30" for you in April 1997- getting a 30" storm is rare enough, but getting it in April is truly amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 http://www.nhtrafficcams.com/towns/i95_traffic_cam_hampton_nh.htm dumping in hampton tolls nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No it didn't. It's a nowcast thing, but I'm still being conservative for BOS. We'll either get pummeled tomorrow for several hours, or it's a 1-2 hr deal of heavier stuff that gives us 1-3". I'm not really on the pummel train right now. Normally I would be hammering away at the S+ factor...but we got phucked by this stupid warmth aloft. We'll just have to see. Actually, it did... in fact they just adjusted back lol ! 946pm map (ticked ~ 10 miles north from map 3pm today): Then adjusted back 1108pm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Wow, absolute scalp fest. 30F. .8" sleet on cars and lawn .5" on street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 It's really been a remarkably steady state melting layer. It's held pretty much in place for the last several hours, only waffling back and forth a little bit. You can see how close it is to MHT, where they go from 4SM to 1 1/4SM and back to 4SM all within the hour. That's about the northern extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Yeah for eastern MA I was hoping that 0z-2z period would serve as a litmus for tomorrow morning... at least to see flakes mixing in during heavier rates of which we've had plenty, because it was just a sliver of warmth at 775-800-825 mb that spoiled it for a few hours tonight... We'll see. As you said earlier, I would not be shocked to get anything from 2" to 8" in Boston, and that range will also depend on where you are in the city. The other interesting factor is how slow this system takes to exit... 02z HRRR (well out of it's range) absolutely crushes eastern MA tomorrow late morning into early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, jbenedet said: This could be the biggest event of the season for the seacoast of NH....on April 1st. Local TV mets say otherwise. WMUR going 6-10 and Eric Fisher 3-6. I positive bust would be nice...almost never happens that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Keep an eye on that line of higher ZDR from like ORH to EWB, just southwest of the BOX radar hole. It has high correlation (so all same ptype) but higher ZDR which points towards rain drops (flatter hydrometeors not circular). That might be a decent push of WAA that will try and shift the melting layer north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 2.4" 32.0F About 1.4 miles from PWM jetport. Can't wait until those heavier bands make it up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Pretty good slug of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Keep an eye on that line of higher ZDR from like ORH to EWB, just southwest of the BOX radar hole. It has high correlation (so all same ptype) but higher ZDR which points towards rain drops (flatter hydrometeors not circular). That might be a decent push of WAA that will try and shift the melting layer north again. The Derry RWIS flipped back to snow from UP right about the time the sleet washed out on the CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 0z RGEM also trending slower in exiting tomorrow afternoon Slow but steady ramping up guidance of CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Man...that PL line is beginning to exhibit a concerted retreat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 RGEM is pretty ridiculous tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 29.7F SN 5.5" new (0.6" past hr) 6hr core: 3.5" snow / 0.41" w.e. Storm total: 5.5" snow / 0.58" w.e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM is pretty ridiculous tomorrow morning Yeah I liked that it also extends by a few hours 9z-15z drops > 1.5" qpf in Boston... I had to check that again to believe it, but that's really what it's showing Definite ramp up of CCB on guidance, I'm expecting Euro to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: 29.7F SN 5.5" new (0.6" past hr) 6hr core: 3.5" snow / 0.41" w.e. Storm total: 5.5" snow / 0.58" w.e. 8-9:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 8-9:1? Pretty much. Growth has sucked all evening. It's all snow, but mid level temps are shot to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Man...most impressive sleet event since VD 2007. .5" of pure sleet in 3 hours. 2.5" snow/sleet total. 31.9/31 PL+ Zero rain all night that I have seen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Even @ 8-9:1....1.5" of qpf tmw am is like 1'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: Pretty much. Growth has sucked all evening. It's all snow, but mid level temps are shot to hell. Not surprised though with those numbers, 10:1 or higher was going to be a tough task with the way the mids were modeled for this one, Maybe a little better tomorrow if you get into the CCB with some better snow growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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