Rtd208 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Picked up 0.85" of rain for the day. Total rainfall since Monday 3/27: 5.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 We are getting some ripping SW winds right now. Shaking the building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 looks like thats the end of the wet pattern for now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: looks like thats the end of the wet pattern for now.... Drier and warmer as our old friend the SE ridge is making a comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: looks like thats the end of the wet pattern for now.... Yeah, we dry out for a bit, which is a good thing. Next week should have some classic April weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Next 8 days to be +6 (57 vs. 51). Mostly AN till 20th. April looks like it wants to erase the -102 . degrees from March, [-3.3×31] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Yeah looks like it should be fairly dry until maybe around the 20th or so at least according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 Mother nature has a way of balancing itself out. After a very wet 10-14 day period, the next two weeks look fairly dry on the ensembles. One period that needs to be watched is the end of next week. The GFS, ECMWF and GGEM all swing a trough through New England and then deepen it just to our East. If that ends up further West it could throw a fly into the ointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Mother nature has a way of balancing itself out. After a very wet 10-14 day period, the next two weeks look fairly dry on the ensembles. One period that needs to be watched is the end of next week. The GFS, ECMWF and GGEM all swing a trough through New England and then deepen it just to our East. If that ends up further West it could throw a fly into the ointment. It's tough to maintain a record rainy week pattern like we just saw. JFK just set a new record rainiest 3/31-4/06 week. The Nino 1+2 spike and convection is fading a bit now as models dry things out. Impressive how we beat those other El Nino weeks. Time to enjoy some nice spring weather coming up. wettest 3-31-04-06 JFK 1 2017-04-06 4.12 2 1973-04-06 3.31 3 1987-04-06 3.23 4 1960-04-06 2.98 5 1984-04-06 2.89 6 1982-04-06 2.51 7 1977-04-06 2.47 8 1980-04-06 1.90 9 1997-04-06 1.88 10 1993-04-06 1.66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: It's tough to maintain a record rainy week pattern like we just saw. JFK just set a new record rainiest 3/31-4/06 week. The Nino 1+2 spike and convection is fading a bit now as models dry things out for now. Time to enjoy the warm spring weather coming up this week. 1 2017-04-06 4.12 2 1973-04-06 3.31 3 1987-04-06 3.23 4 1960-04-06 2.98 5 1984-04-06 2.89 6 1982-04-06 2.51 7 1977-04-06 2.47 8 1980-04-06 1.90 9 1997-04-06 1.88 10 1993-04-061.660 It's perfect timing for me. I'm headed to Vegas for a week on Wednesday so I'm glad I'll be missing a boring pattern. Hopefully when I get back the pattern will be flipping again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's perfect timing for me. I'm headed to Vegas for a week on Wednesday so I'm glad I'll be missing a boring pattern. Hopefully when I get back the pattern will be flipping again. The weeklies change up the pattern that we have seen since the beginning of March. They now go to more of a familiar Western trough Eastern ridge pattern until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The weeklies change up the pattern that we have seen since the beginning of March. They now go to more of a familiar Western trough Eastern ridge pattern until further notice. I'm sure the pattern will breakdown eventually. I'd rather have a stormy early and mid Spring and a nice dry end of Spring and Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 The coming warmth and sun will really wake up the grass and trees (and weeds).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: The coming warmth and sun will really wake up the grass and trees (and weeds).... Was just about to say the same thing. If we do get a warmer and sunnier week things will green up in a hurry. Even though I have allergies, I still love it. Get the Claritin ready.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm sure the pattern will breakdown eventually. I'd rather have a stormy early and mid Spring and a nice dry end of Spring and Summer. We'll probably still have to be on the lookout for backdoor cold fronts following the warmest days coming up. The weeklies build the HP over Canada along with the SE ridge. But above normal temps will probably win out in the means as the warmer days will have bigger departures than the cooler ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It's tough to maintain a record rainy week pattern like we just saw. JFK just set a new record rainiest 3/31-4/06 week. The Nino 1+2 spike and convection is fading a bit now as models dry things out. Impressive how we beat those other El Nino weeks. Time to enjoy some nice spring weather coming up. wettest 3-31-04-06 JFK 1 2017-04-06 4.12 2 1973-04-06 3.31 3 1987-04-06 3.23 4 1960-04-06 2.98 5 1984-04-06 2.89 6 1982-04-06 2.51 7 1977-04-06 2.47 8 1980-04-06 1.90 9 1997-04-06 1.88 10 1993-04-06 1.66 Wow I didn't realize early April 1982 had this much liquid equivalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Drier and warmer as our old friend the SE ridge is making a comeback. That could be underdone if anything, mid 70s could make it quite far out on the Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 29 minutes ago, Paragon said: Wow I didn't realize early April 1982 had this much liquid equivalent. There was actually a big rainstorm a few days before the blizzard with nearly 2 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 All this rain really helped reservoir levels. NYC is close to 100% and we're near 90% out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: We'll probably still have to be on the lookout for backdoor cold fronts following the warmest days coming up. The weeklies build the HP over Canada along with the SE ridge. But above normal temps will probably win out in the means as the warmer days will have bigger departures than the cooler ones. The trough towards the end of next week trended deeper on the last three runs of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Looks like the old GFS cold bias at work since the EPS has a weaker trough following the warm up next week. That's not really accurate, the ECMWF and the EPS deepen the trough too, it's a bit further East than the GFS but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's not really accurate, the ECMWF and the EPS deepen the trough too, it's a bit further East than the GFS but it's there. They are all weaker than the OP GFS. But we still probably get a backdoor for a few days before the warm front surges back north again. Warmer than normal pattern with occasional backdoors after the warmest days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: They are all weaker than the OP GFS. But we still probably get a backdoor for a few days before the warm front surges back north again. Warmer than normal pattern with occasional backdoors after the warmest days. If you dig that trough into the SE US instead of just offshore you get a completely different pattern. Looks like the NAO falls mid month and the PNA moves back towards positive which would support a return to a stormier pattern in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 The 12z GGEM actually cuts off the low late next weekend inducing a backdoor pattern. I'm not taking the model verbatim, but I don't think dry and warm is by any means a slam dunk after day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 Off topic a bit but that NAO just does not want to go negative outside of a dip here or there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z GGEM actually cuts off the low late next weekend inducing a backdoor pattern. I'm not taking the model verbatim, but I don't think dry and warm is by any means a slam dunk after day 6. It's a progressive cool shot after the warm up next week since the trough and firehose jet is returning to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Off topic a bit but that NAO just does not want to go negative outside of a dip here or there.... We just had that big storm with a positive NAO, but that's likely what prevented the ULL from digging further Southeast. I'm more interested the PNA going back to more positive territory after the upcoming dip. That will at least keep the trough out the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 7, 2017 Author Share Posted April 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's a progressive cool shot after the warm up next week since the trough and firehose jet is returning to the West. You're taking the model verbatim. It's certainly possible that the trough ends up less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You're taking the model verbatim. It's certainly possible that the trough ends up less progressive. The big wet pattern is shifting back to the West Coast. Vigorous & significant storm system bearing down on the U.S. west coast & #California captured by Suomi NPP #VIIRS today. #CAwxpic.twitter.com/d5sJXKKarx NWS Sacramento @NWSSacramento 17h #CAstorm impacts begin tonight. Widespread power outages & downed trees, hazardous weather conditions, travel delays all possible. #CAwx pic.twitter.com/mFlM2ubUcR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2017 Share Posted April 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Off topic a bit but that NAO just does not want to go negative outside of a dip here or there.... Same old story since March 2013. The strong drops since then have been transient like July 2015, January 2016, and October 2016. Big AO regime flip from the record negative pattern June 2009 -March 2013 to the mostly positive April 2013 - present. Luckily, the -EPO has been there to help us out. But we saw how the lack of a -AO cost the coast an historic late season blizzard back in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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