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April 2017 Observations and Discussions


NJwx85

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9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Meh, we might get a storm next week, but you'll need a longer lasting -NAO and or -AO for a truly gloomy stretch.   -NAO has come up short just about every time since March 2013

Looks like a fairly prolonged negative -AO/NAO stretch to me coming up. Given another record warm month it wouldn't surprise me to see May pull another March.

We need some balance afterall. 

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I agree.   But the question is sky conditions.   Clear and 60-65 feels quite warm this time of year vs cloudy and 55.

See I don't think it supports 60-65 and clear either. For that we would really need the trough to be Northeast of us. 

The big question is what happens with that big closed low for next week. 

The pattern is going to be blocky, and that supports big closed lows. We just had one. Another one is moving through the Plains today and the one for late next week is poised to close off in a favorable position for us over the TN Valley, with surface low redevelopment off the coast. Think of it like a major miller B during Winter time. 

gfsp_z500_vort_us_31.png

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like a fairly prolonged negative -AO/NAO stretch to me coming up. Given another record warm month it wouldn't surprise me to see May pull another March.

We need some balance afterall. 

tend to agree that we are overdue for some cooler months....and of course we often get a -NAO in the spring when we don't want it!  On the plus side, the drought here has been dented.  Water restrictions eased...

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

tend to agree that we are overdue for some cooler months....and of course we often get a -NAO in the spring when we don't want it!  On the plus side, the drought here has been dented.  Water restrictions eased...

I'm not saying that this is going to verify, but it gives you an idea as to the consensus of the -AO/-NAO block.

jma_z500_mslp_us_8.png

jma_z500_mslp_us_9.png

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28 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Monday thru WeDnesday will be gorgeous...temps 80 75 and 70 with plenty of sun....people were saying no warmth and we will have 3 of 4 days hitting 80 and above. May will be just fine

 

86 my high today

Dude, never said we won't have nicer days mixed in, just speaking about the block that's coming towards the end of next week. NAO Blocking usually leads to slow moving storm systems on the East coast.

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31 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Monday thru WeDnesday will be gorgeous...temps 80 75 and 70 with plenty of sun....people were saying no warmth and we will have 3 of 4 days hitting 80 and above. May will be just fine

 

86 my high today

By the way, we also have a cold front coming Monday night with rain chances increasing.

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9 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

Dude, never said we won't have nicer days mixed in, just taking about the block that's coming towards the end of next week. NAO Blocking usually leads to slow moving storm systems on the East coast.

Welcome to spring on the eastern seaboard...we go through this every year. Last year IT was 48 on May 1 and IT was a cool cloudy month

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