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April 2017 Observations and Discussions


NJwx85

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Forecast low was 37, made it down to 33.  Sunshine and deep blue skies out there right now with the current temp at 37, a beautiful morning. 

Nice, made it down to 37.5° here last night.  Like I was telling Bluewave, I think freezing temps are probably done for the metro (excluding you guys), but frost/temps in the mid-30's might make a few more guest appearances.

Classic April day IMO, go from 30's at night to 60's during the day.

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5 hours ago, doncat said:

Measurable rain past three days but only amounted to 0.20" here...looking to get upwards of an inch or so to start the week.

Surprised you're that low, over an inch here. GGEM is 2"+ while GFS is about half that next few days.

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Latest GFSx is +8 (64 vs. 56) for the next 7 days and this would complete the month of April.

22x4.1 = 90  8x7 = 56 and making today neutral, would get us close to the 150deg. surplus we need to finish April  as the warmest ever.

 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

April temperature departures will get a boost when 80's return to close out the month. Be interesting to see if the 90's showing up now down near SNJ can shift further north in later runs.

 

ecmwf_t2max_12_neng_21.thumb.png.79858fee9642c673dc30ab153aac025f.png

ecmwf_t2max_12_neng_25.thumb.png.dbd71a1659ada45e51335acda64151ff.png

ecmwf_t2max_12_neng_29.thumb.png.b3c07683f7aa93c311a5f6c10419dd9a.png

 

 

 

back in April 1976 the day before the heat wave started I was watching the evening weather and I noticed how warm it was in North Carolina...There were no 80's or 90's in our forecast...I wondered to myself is that warmth going to make it up here...It was 25 degrees a few mornings before and the thought of having a heat wave wasn't on any ones radar...

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

back in April 1976 the day before the heat wave started I was watching the evening weather and I noticed how warm it was in North Carolina...There were no 80's or 90's in our forecast...I wondered to myself is that warmth going to make it up here...It was 25 degrees a few mornings before and the thought of having a heat wave wasn't on any ones radar...

 

23 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I remember being surprised at the dramatic turn too.  

Record heat back in the 70's was really short lived. We had 20's before the record April warmth and 30's after. The record heat in the summer of 77 was focused into about 10 days in July.

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13 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Ive only received .25 in the last 18 days..every so called rain event has busted and or underperformed. Let's see what tomorrow brings...

Well it's been relatively dry since about April 10th, but most areas have received over an inch since then, personally I've received over 2". It seems that the rains have been closer to the coast recently and that could be the case again today.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Well it's been relatively dry since about April 10th, but most areas have received over an inch since then, personally I've received over 2". It seems that the rains have been closer to the coast recently and that could be the case again today.

had over 4.5 inches of rain since march 28, over 2.5 since April 4th in Westchester, it hasn't been a dry stretch by any stretch of the imagination. 

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13 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

had over 4.5 inches of rain since march 28, over 2.5 since April 4th in Westchester, it hasn't been a dry stretch by any stretch of the imagination. 

It's relative to ones backyard, so that's not really fair to say. 

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27 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

had over 4.5 inches of rain since march 28, over 2.5 since April 4th in Westchester, it hasn't been a dry stretch by any stretch of the imagination. 

Granted I'm just a little north of you but yeah, it's been plenty wet this year. Hey, all you city people that are counting on having water to drink this year are getting off easy. We're getting doused while you enjoy springtime.

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The best part about this current system is that it's not a quick flip back to wet and then dry again, we literally have rain chances almost every other day for the next two weeks. The ensembles are showing an above average rainfall pattern right through the first week in May.

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Last 6 days of April should average +9 (66 vs. 57)

3.7x24 = 89

9.0x6   = 54       This is still just shy of the 150 estimate we need to be the warmest April ever.

Average April   53.0    April 2010 record is 57.9.    So we need +5x30 = 150degs. surplus.

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45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The best part about this current system is that it's not a quick flip back to wet and then dry again, we literally have rain chances almost every other day for the next two weeks. The ensembles are showing an above average rainfall pattern right through the first week in May.

Maybe for you that's good :P.  I'd prefer a nice stretch of 70+ and sun, with an occasional rainy day to keep us from drying up.

Had about .06" of rain this morning.  We'll see how much the afternoon can produce.

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Just now, JerseyWx said:

Maybe for you that's good :P.  I'd prefer a nice stretch of 70+ and sun, with an occasional rainy day to keep us from drying up.

Had about .06 of rain this morning.  We'll see how much the afternoon can produce.

We just had a nice stretch, Saturday is going to feel like mid June so get out and enjoy it. Saturday night we could have some storm activity, and then Sunday looks cloudy with the warm front ahead of the cold front passage on Monday which at the moment looks rather robust. Then we have another approaching trough with the possibility of a surface low enhancing things towards the end of the week.

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27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We just had a nice stretch, Saturday is going to feel like mid June so get out and enjoy it. Saturday night we could have some storm activity, and then Sunday looks cloudy with the warm front ahead of the cold front passage on Monday which at the moment looks rather robust. Then we have another approaching trough with the possibility of a surface low enhancing things towards the end of the week.

To be honest, as long as it's not a cold rain like today, I don't mind too much.

Some pretty heavy showers came through recently in the form of a couple short bursts.

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