gravitylover Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 58 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Yeah so I missed the memo that said it was going to rain up here this morning, I thought today was a dry day and maybe some sun in the afternoon. Me too. Bummed 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looking now like tomorrow will be the nicer day of the weekend with the potential to get back above 60 with some breaks of sun. Forecasts can change on a dime when you have a warm front stall near the area. I sure hope so. My daughter will be racing at the high school mt bike race in Wawarsing tomorrow and standing around outside all day when it's cool/cold and dreary isn't a whole lot of fun. Even 60 can be tough when you're just standing around. 18 minutes ago, Paragon said: You mean that Arctic cold that's causing record snowfall in Caribou, Maine? They had over 4 inches the other day. I changed my travel plans on Tuesday and went to central VT rather than northern NH because I didn't feel like dealing with snow and mush. It was gorgeous in VT, 60+ and not a cloud in the sky, real COC weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 17 hours ago, uncle W said: we got more snow from 2013-16 with a worse 500mb look... For the years with blocking, 2009-11 juxtaposed with 2013-15, the NAO centric blocking of the former period still wins for ny area. 72" and 58" vs. 64" and 53". Close, but if I had my ideal scenario, I would prefer NAO centric blocking due to snowpack retention, which was better in 09 to 11 vs the latter period. I95 tends to be more prone to occasional warming without downstream blocking. The bursts of severe cold might not occur as frequently, but I'd trade that for persistent snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, Isotherm said: For the years with blocking, 2009-11 juxtaposed with 2013-15, the NAO centric blocking of the former period still wins for ny area. 72" and 58" vs. 64" and 53". Close, but if I had my ideal scenario, I would prefer NAO centric blocking due to snowpack retention, which was better in 09 to 11 vs the latter period. I95 tends to be more prone to occasional warming without downstream blocking. The bursts of severe cold might not occur as frequently, but I'd trade that for persistent snow cover. It's pretty close. The 2009-11 period peaked from about the Boxing Day storm in December 2010 to about the late January 2011 snowstorm and we retained snowcover for about six weeks. In 2015, we had that amazing February and March with lots of snow and cold, that was actually a two month period from about January 20th to March 20th. February 2015 was one of the most anomalous months I have ever experienced- even exceeding the cold and snow of the 2003-04 December-January period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 what ever it takes to snow I'm in...the last two years the biggest snowfalls came around the date of the lowest AO number...2016 was very negative...this year was slightly negative compared to most years...the nao also helped both times and was stronger in 2016...2016 needed a strong block to stop the influence of a strong el nino...weak blocks with a weak enso worked this year...the overall positive ao/nao helped make the last two years mild to say the least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: It's pretty close. The 2009-11 period peaked from about the Boxing Day storm in December 2010 to about the late January 2011 snowstorm and we retained snowcover for about six weeks. In 2015, we had that amazing February and March with lots of snow and cold, that was actually a two month period from about January 20th to March 20th. February 2015 was one of the most anomalous months I have ever experienced- even exceeding the cold and snow of the 2003-04 December-January period. The big majority of my favorite snowstorms had a -3 or lower AO drop within a month of the storm. The only snowstorm to make the list since the 10-11 winter was January 2016 following the -4.898 AO drop. 12-13..13-14..14-15..16-17 had a number of second and third tier snow events for me. My most memorable winter event from 12-13 to 14-15 was the February 2015 cold and ice on the local waterways. Other than that, it was the disappointment of missing the jackpot in January 2015 and February 2013. I would much rather have a top tier event like January 2016 than extended snow cover of 13-14 or 14-15 with lesser storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 46 minutes ago, bluewave said: The big majority of my favorite snowstorms had a -3 or lower AO drop within a month of the storm. The only snowstorm to make the list since the 10-11 winter was January 2016 following the -4.898 AO drop. 12-13..13-14..14-15..16-17 had a number of second and third tier snow events for me. My most memorable winter event from 12-13 to 14-15 was the February 2015 cold and ice on the local waterways. Other than that, it was the disappointment of missing the jackpot in January 2015 and February 2013. I would much rather have a top tier event like January 2016 than extended snow cover of 13-14 or 14-15 with lesser storms. my favorite snowstorms are the ones that precede a cold spell and last at least a week before melting away...That's why I'll take Feb. 1978 over Feb. 2006 any day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, uncle W said: my favorite snowstorms are the ones that precede a cold spell and last at least a week before melting away...That's why I'll take Feb. 1978 over Feb. 2006 any day... I care more about the quality of the snowstorm than how long it stays on the ground after. Unless you live out in a rural area, the snow pack gets dirty pretty fast around here. The dirtiest snow piles I ever saw were in Long Beach with that record snowstorms and snowcover in 10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, uncle W said: my favorite snowstorms are the ones that precede a cold spell and last at least a week before melting away...That's why I'll take Feb. 1978 over Feb. 2006 any day... I agree...nothing worse than a nice snowstorm followed by sunny 40 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 1 minute ago, doncat said: I agree...nothing worse than a nice snowstorm followed by sunny 40 degree days. worse than that is a rainstorm a few days later...nothing worse than seeing a nice snow cover melt away during one day of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: I care more about the quality of the snowstorm than how long it stays on the ground after. Unless you live out in a rural area, the snow pack gets dirty pretty fast around here. The dirtiest snow piles I ever saw were in Long Beach with that record snowstorms and snowcover in 10-11. I tend to agree with you. 2016 was a good example, awesome snowstorm around here. I don't like a snowpack that sticks around because it becomes cumbersome. Streets get too narrow and it's hard to even walk around the property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The big majority of my favorite snowstorms had a -3 or lower AO drop within a month of the storm. The only snowstorm to make the list since the 10-11 winter was January 2016 following the -4.898 AO drop. 12-13..13-14..14-15..16-17 had a number of second and third tier snow events for me. My most memorable winter event from 12-13 to 14-15 was the February 2015 cold and ice on the local waterways. Other than that, it was the disappointment of missing the jackpot in January 2015 and February 2013. I would much rather have a top tier event like January 2016 than extended snow cover of 13-14 or 14-15 with lesser storms. January 2016 now tops the list of my favorite snowstorms of all time. The others are April 1982, February 1983, January 1996, PD2, and Boxing Day 2010. I'm not including anything I didn't experience or don't remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 21 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I tend to agree with you. 2016 was a good example, awesome snowstorm around here. I don't like a snowpack that sticks around because it becomes cumbersome. Streets get too narrow and it's hard to even walk around the property. Maybe if I lived out in the country I would feel differently about extended snow cover. 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: January 2016 now tops the list of my favorite snowstorms of all time. The others are April 1982, February 1983, January 1996, PD2, and Boxing Day 2010. I'm not including anything I didn't experience or don't remember. Here's my favorites list in chronological order: Jan 78 surprise....Feb 78...Apr 82....Feb 83...Jan 87 surprise....Jan 96...Feb 03...Dec 10....Jan 11...Jan 16....Christmas 02 honorable mention for the change to heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: Maybe if I lived out in the country I would feel differently about extended snow cover. Here's my favorites list in chronological order: Jan 78 surprise....Feb 78...Apr 82....Feb 83...Jan 87 surprise....Jan 96...Feb 03...Dec 10....Jan 11...Jan 16....Christmas 02 honorable mention for the change to heavy snow That's a good list. The ones I didn't include I don't remember are the 78 storms. I don't remember the January 1987 storm for some reason, what happened? I didn't include January 2011 because there was a huge gap in the middle when nothing was falling. I have this vague memory from the early 90s of a storm that stalled and it snowed all day but it didn't stick because the temp was just above freezing but it just kept snowing and then it started to stick at night and JFK somehow ended up being the jackpot with about 8 inches. There was no snow west of about EWR and no snow east of the Hamptons and it didn't snow in Boston or Philly either. The storm formed along a cold front and just stalled SE of the Hamptons. Do you remember this? I'd include this in my list if I remembered what storm it was- it snowed for 36 hours straight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Today is brutal. Overcast with drizzle, 51. The rain shield looks like it's going to come right on thru north jersey. I was anticipating partly cloudy and 60. 8 packages of bees to get into hives, recipe for stings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 1. Feb 03 Towson MD 33". 2. Boxing Day 11 Long Beach ny 60mph winds and what I would consider "severe blizzard" conditions 22" 3. Jan 2016 upper west side 28" 4. Jan 05 Boston area 24" and true blizzard conditions 5. Jan 96 wantagh ny 24" this one makes the list for being my formative blizzard being 13 one of my big got me into weather events. 6. March 1993 wantagh ny 10". Just an epic storm all around. Coastal flooding and snow, something you will never ever forget after experiencing ohh and I threw up this list because it's always changing. And also what are 95% of us here to talk about. Though I am personally one of the true weather freaks that's here all year round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Is the Euro still showing hot temperatures coming in late this week into next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, Paragon said: That's a good list. The ones I didn't include I don't remember are the 78 storms. I don't remember the January 1987 storm for some reason, what happened? I didn't include January 2011 because there was a huge gap in the middle when nothing was falling. I have this vague memory from the early 90s of a storm that stalled and it snowed all day but it didn't stick because the temp was just above freezing but it just kept snowing and then it started to stick at night and JFK somehow ended up being the jackpot with about 8 inches. There was no snow west of about EWR and no snow east of the Hamptons and it didn't snow in Boston or Philly either. The storm formed along a cold front and just stalled SE of the Hamptons. Do you remember this? I'd include this in my list if I remembered what storm it was- it snowed for 36 hours straight! Don't really remember that storm. Jan 87 was supposed to start as snow and quickly change over to rain. Instead we got close to 10 inches of snow from 11 am to about 5 pm. Jan 78 was also supposed to be rain and turned out to be close to 15 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 23 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Is the Euro still showing hot temperatures coming in late this week into next weekend? Here's the same time frame of the EPS that forky posted a couple pages back: Wednesday (26th) through next Monday (1st). Seems like it scaled back a little bit from both the 00z and 12z runs from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Here's the same time frame of the EPS that forky posted a couple pages back: Wednesday (26th) through next Monday (1st). Seems like it scaled back a little bit from both the 00z and 12z runs from yesterday. Funny it shows maximum heating for coastal locations lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Don't really remember that storm. Jan 87 was supposed to start as snow and quickly change over to rain. Instead we got close to 10 inches of snow from 11 am to about 5 pm. Jan 78 was also supposed to be rain and turned out to be close to 15 inches of snow. Ah, I think I dimly remember it, we got 8.6 inches or something like that and it changed to freezing drizzle right at the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Funny it shows maximum heating for coastal locations lol. Yeah, Cape Cod is right in the center of it. I'm sure this will continue to fluctuate from day to day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 39 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Today is brutal. Overcast with drizzle, 51. The rain shield looks like it's going to come right on thru north jersey. I was anticipating partly cloudy and 60. 8 packages of bees to get into hives, recipe for stings. Thanks for warning me I am now avoiding Chester, NJ LOL PS that partly cloudy and 60 forecast might be more applicable for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Just now, JerseyWx said: Yeah, Cape Cod is right in the center of it. I'm sure this will continue to fluctuate from day to day. It might be a case of when the cold front that's dividing the nation moves through. So let's say Day 5-7 the heat is centered further west and Day 8 the front moves through and Day 9 we have downsloping winds to keep the coast hot before the cooler air trickles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 6 hours ago, bluewave said: Looking now like tomorrow will be the nicer day of the weekend with the potential to get back above 60 with some breaks of sun. Forecasts can change on a dime when you have a warm front stall near the area. The idea of today being warm failed. 53F and rain here. Heating on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 51 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Today is brutal. Overcast with drizzle, 51. The rain shield looks like it's going to come right on thru north jersey. I was anticipating partly cloudy and 60. 8 packages of bees to get into hives, recipe for stings. Total blown forecast. Yesterday had no mention of rain all weekend. While it's been very light i'm sure it messed up a lot of outdoor plans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 45 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Is the Euro still showing hot temperatures coming in late this week into next weekend? the three day warm spell got split and now it looks like two 2 day warm spells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Apparently the cutoff low for early next week is looking pretty wet (wetter) according to the mid-atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, nzucker said: The idea of today being warm failed. 53F and rain here. Heating on. So tomorrow is the day with breaks of sun and getting back over 60 especially away from the immediate shore. Flip a coin with these where the warm front is stalled nearby. Models originally had Sunday for the cooler day of the two. It will be reversed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Dialed back the max potential a bit with 70's to low 80's away from the sea breeze influence instead of 90's potential it was showing a few days ago. the progged 850's would support mid 80's with enough sun and offshore flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 The new run actually looks closer to a classic cool and wet pattern with that GL low dropping in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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