CIK62 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Target for this April to be the warmest ever is a positive surplus of 5x30=150 degrees. So far5.5x18 = 99 GFSx 2.0 x8 = 16 predicted, for a total of 115 through the 26th. So, last four days of the month are going to have to soar at about +8degs. (35/4) to become #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Chilly day here-44 degrees, overcast and a wind off the water....50 will be a stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Target for this April to be the warmest ever is a positive surplus of 5x30=150 degrees. So far5.5x18 = 99 GFSx 2.0 x8 = 16 predicted, for a total of 115 through the 26th. So, last four days of the month are going to have to soar at about +8degs. (35/4) to become #1. Fairly uniform top 4-5 warmest April through the 18th. After this week, the next chance for +10 or greater departures will probably come near the end of the month as the SE Ridge flexes its muscles again. NYC...#5...EWR...#4....LGA....#4.....JFK....#5....ISP....#5....POU....#5....TTN....#5.....PHL...#4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Chilly day here-44 degrees, overcast and a wind off the water....50 will be a stretch Who just said that temps were forecast too high today? I predicted upper 40s to low 50s while NWS had 55-60F. It's currently 49F here in the South Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Target for this April to be the warmest ever is a positive surplus of 5x30=150 degrees. So far5.5x18 = 99 GFSx 2.0 x8 = 16 predicted, for a total of 115 through the 26th. So, last four days of the month are going to have to soar at about +8degs. (35/4) to become #1. We won't get there. Today is going to be cooler than forecast, and Sun-Tues look chilly with high temps around 50F. The second half of the month will be nowhere near as warm as the first. We will probably finish 4th or 5th as Bluewave said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 The fact that we're achieving top 5 warmest months so easily is incredibly alarming. No one bats an eye anymore when another record warm month occurs yet people would go crazy if it was the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 the models are showing another warm surge to end the month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Forecast is 57 for the high, currently at 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Fairly uniform top 4-5 warmest April through the 18th. After this week, the next chance for +10 or greater departures will probably come near the end of the month as the SE Ridge flexes its muscles again. NYC...#5...EWR...#4....LGA....#4.....JFK....#5....ISP....#5....POU....#5....TTN....#5.....PHL...#4 Chris how did you do for temps on Sunday? I've been busy doing my spring plantings the last three days, but I recorded a high of 84.6 at 1:30 PM on Sunday. I knew it got into the 80s, but I thought 84.6 was a trifle high, but it seems to have been confirmed by the Valley Stream PNS (which has a gold star rating) which recorded a high of 84.3 at 1:30 PM I recorded 84.6 at 1:30 PM Valley Streeam PNS recorded 84.3 at 1:30 PM https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KNYVALLE1#history/s20170416/e20170416/mdaily I believe JFK reached a high of 83, so we were a degree or two warmer than them and 80 degree heat reached all the way out to Islip. This area is pretty built up and about as urban as Brooklyn or Southern Queens so we often get higher temps than they do further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the models are showing another warm surge to end the month... chance for 90s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 2:15 AM, nzucker said: The surface map shows how brutal the airmass was: -40F temps in Quebec. That strong high pressure allowed for a coastal hugger to keep the City, and especially LI, below freezing even with the tight track which caused mid-level temps to be well-above freezing. It actually looks a bit like the 3/14/17 storm this year, though with a much better high pressure (and climo is about 10F colder in mid January than mid March). The 500mb map also shows the predominant hemispheric pattern in Winter 1977-78: a western ridge that amplified back into Alaska causing a very -EPO. This strong meridional pattern caused the Cleveland Superbomb, the Blizzard of February 78, and the cold high pressure that followed that major snowfall. Great pattern. Interestingly, 76-77, 77-78, and 78-79 all had a huge -EPO. 76-77 was the coldest winter in the East, especially Jan 1977, and 78-79 was the coldest winter in the CONUS since records began in the late 1800s. Every single state had below normal temperatures in Winter 78-79. From the way you described it, it actually sounds like the St Paddy's day storm from 2007. And the long -EPO stretch reminds me of what we went through between 2013-14 to 2015-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 0:17 PM, psv88 said: That sucks...another reason not to live south of the LIE There's a huge difference between SW Nassau versus SE Suffolk. This is a much more urbanized area and we don't get as much of a sea breeze here- I made it up to close to 85 on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 0:22 PM, bluewave said: 64...Jones Beach....74..Wantagh...80...Farmingdale. We got close to 85 here in SW Nassau. Different climate from Jones Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 1:25 PM, bluewave said: Very close to the water south of 27A. My temperatures have been generally running within a degree or two of the new mesonet station at Cedar Creek Park in Wantagh. Chris, I guess it matters a lot more out where you are, because that far east a SW wind has a much larger trajectory over open water. Out here it got to 84.6 by 1:30 (and I live about a mile south of Sunrise Highway.) Also, it's more urbanized here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 10:51 PM, uncle W said: NYC highest minimums for April... 76 4/18/2002 74 4/17/2002 70 4/18/1976 69 4/16/2002 69 4/28/1990 69 4/28/2009 My two favorite Aprils of this century are 2002 and 2003, 2002 for the heatwave and 2003 for the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 1:42 PM, doncat said: 85 here...Was probably mentioned but today was the start of the great April heat wave of 2002, with highs here of 91.96.91 and 91 thru the 19th. I'm surprised Newark or Teterboro didn't get to 90. (Or maybe Poughkeepsie in the hudson valley.) The highest I saw was Toms River at 89. In 2002 we just missed getting 4 straight 90 degree highs at NYC as Central Park hit 89 on the fourth day (the 19th). Newark got that fourth straight 90+ day and peaked at 97 on the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 1:13 PM, Cfa said: That's true for Suffolk, but it isn't as bad further west in my experience. I'm practically in the Atlantic and it's in the 80's. Absolutely. All you have to do is look at a map to see that SW winds only have a very short trajectory over water as far west as SW Nassau and that's why we made it into the mid 80s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 On 4/16/2017 at 6:07 PM, pazzo83 said: I think the latest Easter can be is 4/22. I wonder when it was in 2002 (I'm not religious so I don't care about religious holidays) when we had a big heatwave in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 40 minutes ago, Paragon said: Chris how did you do for temps on Sunday? I've been busy doing my spring plantings the last three days, but I recorded a high of 84.6 at 1:30 PM on Sunday. I knew it got into the 80s, but I thought 84.6 was a trifle high, but it seems to have been confirmed by the Valley Stream PNS (which has a gold star rating) which recorded a high of 84.3 at 1:30 PM I recorded 84.6 at 1:30 PM Valley Streeam PNS recorded 84.3 at 1:30 PM https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KNYVALLE1#history/s20170416/e20170416/mdaily I believe JFK reached a high of 83, so we were a degree or two warmer than them and 80 degree heat reached all the way out to Islip. This area is pretty built up and about as urban as Brooklyn or Southern Queens so we often get higher temps than they do further east. I only made it into the low 70's with the ocean-bay influence. Temps fell back closer to 60 with the rains and then rose at night into the upper 60's on the wind shift before falling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: I only made it into the low 70's with the ocean-bay influence. Temps fell back closer to 60 with the rains and then rose at night into the upper 60's on the wind shift before falling again. I have a feeling that Long Beach might have been somewhat warmer- although how much I'm not sure. Do you remember back in April 2010 when NYC hit 92 and JFK was in the upper 80s? We got close to 90 here but I heard Long Beach was only in the upper 60s?! A 20+ degree difference over a few miles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 35 minutes ago, Paragon said: Chris, I guess it matters a lot more out where you are, because that far east a SW wind has a much larger trajectory over open water. Out here it got to 84.6 by 1:30 (and I live about a mile south of Sunrise Highway.) Also, it's more urbanized here. You could also see how much warmer Breezy Point was on the hourly obs than further east along the shore due to the shorter path across the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, Paragon said: I have a feeling that Long Beach might have been somewhat warmer- although how much I'm not sure. Do you remember back in April 2010 when NYC hit 92 and JFK was in the upper 80s? We got close to 90 here but I heard Long Beach was only in the upper 60s?! A 20+ degree difference over a few miles! I believe Long Beach was only in the low 60's that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: You could also see how much warmer Breezy Point was on the hourly obs than further east along the shore due to the shorter path across the water. Yes, exactly. Too bad this doesn't work as well in the winter. I mean, sometimes we stay snow longer than places further to the east (although I've also seen the reverse), but often the entire southern part of the island changes over around the same time. It depends though, if the changeover is weak or slow it could still stay below freezing here while it is above freezing south and east of here (Jan 94, Feb 07, etc.) Sometimes the changeover line is longitudinally oriented and it's snowing here while it's raining on the north shore of Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: You could also see how much warmer Breezy Point was on the hourly obs than further east along the shore due to the shorter path across the water. In some ways SW Nassau is climatologically more like the Jersey Shore than the rest of the south shore (this applies to the winter too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 We might see major temp differences with the late month warm surge for the interior vs the coast especially if the ridging is more overhead than a classic Bermuda high. The ocean is still quite cold this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Forecast is 57 for the high, currently at 56 Hit 58, glad I bet the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: We might see major temp differences with the late month warm surge for the interior vs the coast especially if the ridging is more overhead than a classic Bermuda high. The ocean is still quite cold this time of year. If it's more like what we had on Sunday, we'll all be in the 80s unless you can actually see the ocean. From what I've profiled of past warm streaks, if the airmass is warm enough, it'll overpower the ocean regardless of the time of year. It might not be as hot as interior locations, but the difference will be less than 10 degrees unless you're within visual range of the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Been dry again past couple of weeks with only 0.04" here during that time....did receive 5.50" prior ten days though. Seems these dry patterns keep trying to come back as we've seen past couple of years... Will see how much rain we actually see next few days...may not be much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, doncat said: Been dry again past couple of weeks with only 0.04" here during that time....did receive 5.50" prior ten days though. Seems these dry patterns keep trying to come back as we've seen past couple of years... Will see how much rain we actually see next few days...may not be much. That week with the 3 major rain events was as big a fluke as the cold pattern in mid-March. The Nino 1+2 spike and convection associated with that shift in the pattern faded pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: That week with the 3 major rain events was as big a fluke as the cold pattern in mid-March. The Nino 1+2 spike and convection associated with that shift in the pattern faded pretty quickly. This weather is yucky right now, I hate having to run my heat this late. I can't wait for late April lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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