April 2017 Observations and Discussions

[Paragon]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Top 5 warmest minimums this April so far for our local stations. The newly updated ISP data back to 1964 has this April with the warmest min so far. There is the potential for this to be only the 6th year since 64 at Islip without an April freeze. Those other years were some pretty hot summers.

Warmest April monthly mins for ISP

34...2017...2010..1988...

33...1999...1983

 

I like this list!

[IrishRob17]

6 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Wow, you must have the trees budding already.  I actually have some green showing up already on the lower branches of trees here.

Out of the LHV airports (POU, MGJ, SWF, DXR) was MGJ the warmest?

KPOU and KSWF each hit 86 so I'm guessing yes.  Lots of buds of trees here with bushes leafing out.

[dWave]

21 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Wow, you must have the trees budding already.  I actually have some green showing up already on the lower branches of trees here.

Out of the LHV airports (POU, MGJ, SWF, DXR) was MGJ the warmest?

I thought trees were budding everywhere by now. Some past just budding.

[Paragon]

Just now, dWave said:

I thought trees were budding everywhere by now. Some past just budding.

I just noticed the green starting to show up here a couple of days ago.  It was around the time of our first 70 degree day, so that might have had something to do with it.

[Paragon]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Sunday looks like the first 80 of the season from near JFK ENE right across much of LI north of the Southern State parkway. The only areas remaining in 70's will probably be the immediate South Shore and East End.

 

 

That's pretty specific lol.  How do you feel about the Lynbrook area around Sunrise Highway and Broadway?

 

I find that usually we're warmer than JFK because their sensor is right near Jamaica Bay while we are about 2+ miles north of the Atlantic Ocean (including the Long Beach barrier island.)

 

[Paragon]

Just now, bluewave said:

With the WSW flow, areas south of the Southern State may not be able not be able to reach 80 on Long Island. But the normally warmer parts of Long Island should see their first 80 of the season.

 

 

 

Typically WSW does not have much of an ocean influence here, it's usually relegated to the areas that are within a mile or so of the water.  SW and we're in trouble this early in the season.  By the time July hits, even SW winds don't have much of an influence.  By the middle of the summer you need a S or SSW wind to bring in a sea breeze here.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Typically WSW does not have much of an ocean influence here, it's usually relegated to the areas that are within a mile or so of the water.  SW and we're in trouble this early in the season.  By the time July hits, even SW winds don't have much of an influence.  By the middle of the summer you need a S or SSW wind to bring in a sea breeze here.

It's more WSW closer to NYC and SW the further east that you go. Not sure if JFK can make its first 80, but it looks like a good bet from around Jamacia Queens ENE across Northern Nassau to NW Suffolk.

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's more WSW closer to NYC and SW the further east that you go. Not sure if JFK can make its first 80, but it looks like a good bet from around Jamacia Queens ENE across Northern Nassau to NW Suffolk.

That's interesting- I've always wondered what causes the change in wind direction the further east you go- is it because of the delta t- the difference between the land temps and the ocean surface temps?  That would explain why there is much less of an effect once you move to late June and July and onwards.

 

[Paragon]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We really need a strong W to NW flow in order to completely shut down the seabreeze influence. 

I mean you can still get to 90 in July and August even with a SW wind along the coast- at least that has been my experience.  You can't get to triple digits without a downsloping W to NW wind though.  With that downsloping wind, this area is typically warmer than the city is by a few degrees.

 

 

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, Paragon said:

1990 is a prime example, 85 in mid march then snow in early april.

I was looking at late April cold days...1990 was extraordinary with the mid March warmth...a little snow in April...90 degrees at the end of April...

[Paragon]

Just now, uncle W said:

I was looking at late April cold days...1990 was extraordinary with the mid March warmth...a little snow in April...90 degrees at the end of April...

That has to be the the most extreme one I can think of, going from November-December cold and snow to JFM warmth and back to cold and snow in April.

I usually start my plantings here around April 20-21.  I haven't recorded a freezing low later than that.  Was 1977 the last time any of our local airports or the park recorded a low after 4/20 of 32 or below?  JFK specifically hasn't as far as I know.

 

[Fantom X]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just inland from the beaches yes from Sunrise HWAY to Southern State. But areas south of Merrick rd need more of a WSW to N flow in summer to reach 90.

Agreed. Even my area has a tough time reaching 90 unless I have a West or northwest wind

[uncle W]

JFK minimums for April till last 30's...

4/1	26 in 1969	26 in 1964	27 in 1965
4/2	27 in 1964	32 in 1965	33 in 2015+
4/3	29 in 2008	31 in 1978	31 in 1965
4/4	29 in 1995	29 in 1975	30 in 1964+
4/5	24 in 1995	26 in 2016	28 in 1975+
4/6	20 in 1982	27 in 2016	29 in 1995
4/7	20 in 1982	27 in 1950	28 in 2002
4/8	26 in 1982	28 in 1972	30 in 1977
4/9	26 in 1977	28 in 1950	30 in 2000+
4/10	28 in 1997	29 in 1985	29 in 1974
4/11	32 in 2007	32 in 1976	32 in 1967
4/12	28 in 1976	30 in 1967	33 in 1989
4/13	30 in 1950	31 in 1967	32 in 1992
4/14	27 in 1950	35 in 1990	36 in 2000+
4/15	33 in 1962	33 in 1950	34 in 2014+
4/16	32 in 2014	33 in 1962	35 in 1980+
4/17	33 in 1980	33 in 1962	35 in 2014+
4/18	35 in 2003	36 in 2014	36 in 1997+
4/19	34 in 2001	35 in 1983	37 in 1997+
4/20	36 in 1961	37 in 1983	37 in 1965+
4/21	36 in 1981	37 in 2014	37 in 2013+
4/22	37 in 2013	37 in 1984	37 in 1981+
4/23	34 in 1986	37 in 1989	39 in 2002+
4/24	34 in 1967	37 in 2002	39 in 2015+
4/25	37 in 1971	37 in 1967	38 in 1965
4/26	37 in 1967	38 in 1992	38 in 1987
4/27	34 in 1967	38 in 2002	38 in 2000+
4/28	37 in 1966	39 in 1993	40 in 2012+
4/29	36 in 1966	38 in 1992	39 in 1977
4/30	40 in 1975	42 in 2014	42 in 2008+
5/1	38 in 2008	40 in 2000	40 in 1978+
5/2	39 in 1964	41 in 1963	42 in 1978+
5/3	40 in 1966	40 in 1964	43 in 2005+
5/4	42 in 2005	42 in 1978	42 in 1967
5/5	41 in 2002	41 in 1966	43 in 2005+
5/6	37 in 1992	40 in 1967	41 in 1996
5/7	38 in 1970	39 in 1996	40 in 1967
5/8	40 in 1967	42 in 1981	42 in 1977+
5/9	38 in 1977	39 in 1981	40 in 1966
5/10	34 in 1966	42 in 2010	42 in 1977
5/11	40 in 1966	41 in 1967	42 in 1963
5/12	43 in 1963	44 in 1986	45 in 2010+
5/13	42 in 1962	43 in 2010	43 in 1996+
5/14	39 in 1987	40 in 1996	42 in 1998

[Paragon]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Just inland from the beaches yes from Sunrise HWAY to Southern State. But areas south of Merrick rd need more of a WSW to N flow in summer to reach 90.

I'm going to use 1993 (I know that's a long time ago but still :P)  JFK hit 90 on a SW wind on the first of three straight days that NYC hit 100.  There was a hit because the wind was SW but it wasn't a huge one.  The next two days there was more of a west wind and JFK hit 100+ on both days.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/1993/7/8/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

SSW wind 94 degrees

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/1993/7/9/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

west wind 101 degrees

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/1993/7/10/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

WSW wind 100 degrees

(before that happened it was 96 degrees on a SW wind!)
 

 

[Paragon]

32 minutes ago, uncle W said:

JFK minimums for April till last 30's...

4/1	26 in 1969	26 in 1964	27 in 1965
4/2	27 in 1964	32 in 1965	33 in 2015+
4/3	29 in 2008	31 in 1978	31 in 1965
4/4	29 in 1995	29 in 1975	30 in 1964+
4/5	24 in 1995	26 in 2016	28 in 1975+
4/6	20 in 1982	27 in 2016	29 in 1995
4/7	20 in 1982	27 in 1950	28 in 2002
4/8	26 in 1982	28 in 1972	30 in 1977
4/9	26 in 1977	28 in 1950	30 in 2000+
4/10	28 in 1997	29 in 1985	29 in 1974
4/11	32 in 2007	32 in 1976	32 in 1967
4/12	28 in 1976	30 in 1967	33 in 1989
4/13	30 in 1950	31 in 1967	32 in 1992
4/14	27 in 1950	35 in 1990	36 in 2000+
4/15	33 in 1962	33 in 1950	34 in 2014+
4/16	32 in 2014	33 in 1962	35 in 1980+
4/17	33 in 1980	33 in 1962	35 in 2014+
4/18	35 in 2003	36 in 2014	36 in 1997+
4/19	34 in 2001	35 in 1983	37 in 1997+
4/20	36 in 1961	37 in 1983	37 in 1965+
4/21	36 in 1981	37 in 2014	37 in 2013+
4/22	37 in 2013	37 in 1984	37 in 1981+
4/23	34 in 1986	37 in 1989	39 in 2002+
4/24	34 in 1967	37 in 2002	39 in 2015+
4/25	37 in 1971	37 in 1967	38 in 1965
4/26	37 in 1967	38 in 1992	38 in 1987
4/27	34 in 1967	38 in 2002	38 in 2000+
4/28	37 in 1966	39 in 1993	40 in 2012+
4/29	36 in 1966	38 in 1992	39 in 1977
4/30	40 in 1975	42 in 2014	42 in 2008+
5/1	38 in 2008	40 in 2000	40 in 1978+
5/2	39 in 1964	41 in 1963	42 in 1978+
5/3	40 in 1966	40 in 1964	43 in 2005+
5/4	42 in 2005	42 in 1978	42 in 1967
5/5	41 in 2002	41 in 1966	43 in 2005+
5/6	37 in 1992	40 in 1967	41 in 1996
5/7	38 in 1970	39 in 1996	40 in 1967
5/8	40 in 1967	42 in 1981	42 in 1977+
5/9	38 in 1977	39 in 1981	40 in 1966
5/10	34 in 1966	42 in 2010	42 in 1977
5/11	40 in 1966	41 in 1967	42 in 1963
5/12	43 in 1963	44 in 1986	45 in 2010+
5/13	42 in 1962	43 in 2010	43 in 1996+
5/14	39 in 1987	40 in 1996	42 in 1998

Thanks, Unc, it looks like the latest last freeze was 4/16/2014 (we actually had 0.5" of snow and sleet that morning!) In 2014 that was an amazing streak of five straight lows of mid 30s or lower in the middle of April!

Also of note are the mid 30s lows on 4/19 and 4/20 in 1983 which was JFK's latest significant snowfall on record and the upper 30s low on 5/9/77 which was their latest trace of snowfall on record.

The back to back 20 degree lows in early April 1982 during and right after the big blizzard are also noteworthy (three record lows in a row) as is the next lowest temp in the first week of April- the 24 from April 1995- which was a dry shot of cold (2 consecutive record lows).  Speaking of dry cold in April, I see that 2016 is in there too, with two consecutive lows in the mid 20s.

1966 and 1967 seem to hold a lot of late season records and I also see 5/6/1992 in there with a low of 37, that was our "year without a summer" when Pinatubo erupted.  I see 1996 in there multiple times also, the cold shot on 5/14/96 was actually preceded by severe thunderstorms in the Poconos which changed over to 1-3 inches of snow the next morning.  When I drove back to NY I saw that there was a heavy frost the following morning on Long Island.  Ironic that we then got into the upper 90s around May 19-20- which happened to be the hottest temps for the entire summer and we didn't touch 90 again until August (just once)!

Latest last frost (assuming that the temp has to be 37 or lower for a frost to occur) was 5/10/1966 (Unc do you have the records from 5/15 to the end of May?)

 

[Paragon]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

It's much easier for places like JFK, FRG, and ISP to reach 90 during the summer on a SW flow. But it's another story from Long Beach out to Gilgo along the beaches. Last summer Gilgo had less than half the number of 90 degrees days than JFK, ISP, and FRG. But even those stations had less than half the number of 90 degree days that Newark did.

warm season 2016 90 degree days

6... Gilgo Beach

15...JFK

14...FRG

15...ISP

40...EWR

This is where I think a place like Valley Stream, the 5 Towns or Lynbrook differ from Long Beach, as it's usually the same or a couple or degrees warmer at those locales vs JFK.  I was actually measuring temps during the July 1993 heatwave, I lived in Lawrence back then and we hit 101 on one day and 102 on the other.  When I go across the bridge to Long Beach it does feel significantly cooler in the summer.  And in the winter, once in awhile, the mix line sets up between Valley Stream and Long Beach (rarely, but I've seen it happen- a notable case was the middle storm in February 2010, which was a very wet snow here vs a mix at Long Beach)- it's more likely for there to be freezing rain in Valley Stream and Oceanside vs plain rain in Long Beach.  That was the case on V-Day 2007.  We had temps below freezing through the entire event, while places just to the south and east of here got above freezing before the event ended.  Another one was January 1994 when we stayed below freezing through the event ( a historic ice storm- we had over 2 inches of ice!), while places east of Oceanside got to above freezing before the event ended (I assume Long Beach did too.)

Another one I remember is the March 1993 superstorm where JFK and Oceanside had 10" of snow but east and south of there there was less.

 

[Paragon]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

It's much easier for places like JFK, FRG, and ISP to reach 90 during the summer on a SW flow. But it's another story from Long Beach out to Gilgo along the beaches. Last summer Gilgo had less than half the number of 90 degrees days than JFK, ISP, and FRG. But even those stations had less than half the number of 90 degree days that Newark did.

warm season 2016 90 degree days

6... Gilgo Beach

15...JFK

14...FRG

15...ISP

40...EWR

This is why I contend that last summer wasn't a "hot" summer   

Incidentally, here's another more recent example from our last really hot summer.

July 4th weekend, 2010

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/2010/7/4/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

July 4th- 101 degrees on a West wind (JFK was 5 degrees warmer than NYC that day, Central Park only hit 96 degrees!)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/2010/7/5/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

July 5th- 97 degrees on a SSW wind  (NYC hit 99)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/2010/7/6/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

July 6th- 101 degrees on a Variable/S/SSW wind  (NYC hit 103) The Valley Stream PNS hit 103

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/2010/7/7/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

July 7th- the real shocker- 100 degrees on a NE wind (with gusts to 25 mph)! (NYC hit 100)

 

 

 

[Paragon]

Here's our last April "heatwave"- 4 straight days of 80+, 1 day of 90 from April 2002

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/2002/4/15/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

April 15th- 80 on a SW wind (NYC, EWR hit 82)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/2002/4/16/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

April 16th- 86 on a SSW wind (NYC, EWR hit 91)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/2002/4/17/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

April 17th- 90 on a due South wind! (That was the day Central Park hit 96, Newark hit 97)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/2002/4/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

April 18th- 86 on a Variable/South/SSW/NNE wind (NYC hit 91, EWR hit 93)

https://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/Kjfk/2002/4/19/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Avoca&req_state=PA&reqdb.zip=18641&reqdb.magic=9&reqdb.wmo=99999&MR=1

April 19th- JFK hit 77 on a S wind (NYC hit 89, EWR hit 91)

 

 

 

 

[Paragon]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Valentine's Day 2007 was a very unusual event for Long Island. I believe it was the only time that the South Shore beaches picked up more freezing rain than areas north of Merrick Road. I took a drive right after that storm ended. Long Beach had an icestorm with moderate freezing rain for a few hours. All the trees were covered in a layer of ice with numerous branches down from the weight. By the time you got north of Merrrick Road, there was nearly no icing on the trees but plenty of sleet instead.

That was a very interesting storm!  What are your memories of the Jan 1994 icestorm?  Over 2 inches of ice in Lawrence and temps hit a high of 31 in the early morning hours before dropping into the 20s by daybreak with flurries.

[Paragon]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Jan 1994 was the greatest ice storm that I ever experienced while living in Long Beach. Early morning glaze followed by periods of steady freezing rain from the afternoon into the evening. All the trees and power lines had a very heavy coating of ice. It was the most severe ice storm on Long Island since January 78. The one in 78 wasn't so bad in Long Beach which managed to get a little above freezing while areas near and north of Sunrise got hit the hardest.

I wonder how this area got hit in January 1978? I lived in Brooklyn (Sheepshead Bay) back then but I live near Sunrise Highway/Broadway now.  Do you think that area got more then than they did in January 1994?

What I remember most about January 1994 is that the heaviest freezing rain happened in the late night hours while I was sleeping (and that it happened on top of pre-existing sleet that had accumulated 2-3 inches (which actually made the sleet appear duller) and that north of us up in Newburgh and Poughkeepsie it was heavy freezing rain with like 5 degree temperatures lol.  Couldn't break through this stuff on my driveway, not even with an ice pick lol.

 

[forkyfork]

my family was about to leave for my grandma's house in 1994 for dinner when my dad slipped down the stairs and landed on his @ss. the trip ended right there

[Paragon]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 2010 tied the record for 100 degree days at JFK and was the warmest summer on record.

100 degree summers at JFK and number of days

3...2010...1966

2...2011...1993...1983...1948

1...2013...1999...1972...1963

The amazing thing about 2010 was that JFK had nearly the same number of 90 degrees as Central Park did and that LGA had almost 50 lol.  That's how you know there's a siting issue with the NYC ASOS.  Has that been fixed yet?

By all measures, 2010 should have the most number of 90 degree days at NYC, that record should not belong to any other year.

Did JFK have as many 100 degree days in 2010 as they did in 1966? I know 1966 has their all time record of 104 around the same part of July.  JFK also set the record for most 95 degree days in 2010- it was either 10 or 11.

Did you hit 100 at least twice in July 2010 also?

Ironic thing is, we peaked higher in July 2011 (103, 2 days of 100+)  but the summer wasn't as hot because of the historic deluge we got in August thanks to a stalled front and later Irene.
 

 

 

[Paragon]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

my family was about to leave for my grandma's house in 1994 for dinner when my dad slipped down the stairs and landed on his @ss. the trip ended right there

Well sheesh, I remember that was a Friday night, and Saturday morning when I tried to get out, my door felt like it was superglued shut!  Then it started to get windy and I was worried about power outages.

By the way you should be happy  we're talking about high temperature extremes and ice storms in the same thread lol.

 

[Paragon]

25 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 2010 tied the record for 100 degree days at JFK and was the warmest summer on record.

100 degree summers at JFK and number of days

3...2010...1966

2...2011...1993...1983...1948

1...2013...1999...1972...1963

Interesting that this happened in 5 years between 1948-1983 (a 36 year period), and in 5 years between 1993-2013  (a 21 year period)- including 3 years between 2010-13 (a 4 year period).

[Paragon]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Here's a great page courtesy of Northshorewx on the 78 ice storm:

http://www.northshorewx.com/19780113.asp

 

Each borough is getting a new mesonet station like the one in Wantagh over the coming weeks to perhaps a few month. Looks like the the Queens site is at Queens College. The new one in NYC may also be going in on a college campus. So that could mean maybe it will be placed at a site like Columbia?

Long Beach reached 100 on numerous occasions on the same days that JFK did.

 

 

I think Columbia and Queens College would be excellent locations for new ASOS, hopefully they'll put one near Brooklyn College too.  I'm partial to Prospect Park, but that might have the same issues as Central Park :-P  I'd like one in either Valley Stream or Lynbrook too- those are fairly populated areas.

 

[WeatherFeen2000]

Any chance of severe weather this Easter Sunday?

[Tekken_Guy]

GFS model has been trending warmer for next week, with the cold air mostly staying to the north of us. Euro however still gives us the cold.

[dmillz25]

13 hours ago, Paragon said:

I think Columbia and Queens College would be excellent locations for new ASOS, hopefully they'll put one near Brooklyn College too.  I'm partial to Prospect Park, but that might have the same issues as Central Park :-P  I'd like one in either Valley Stream or Lynbrook too- those are fairly populated areas.

 

I think they should put the brooklyn one by medgar evers. It's an elevated area and no trees in the way

[MJO812]

I love living near the water this time of the year

Seabreeze FTW

[uncle W]

2 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

I think they should put the brooklyn one by medgar evers. It's an elevated area and no trees in the way

I always thought McKinley Park was a great place for a weather obs sight...Prospect Park used to have a weather recording sight years ago...I believe Floyd Benett field did also..