WEATHERBUFF Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: April departures really taking off and should continue to climb with the next 80 degree warm up this weekend. NYC...+4.2 LGA...+5.1 JFK....+2.8 ISP....+3.3 BDR...+3.9 EWR...+4.7 More and more proof that the 1981-2010 averages are useless for today's climate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: More and more proof that the 1981-2010 averages are useless for today's climate! We should probably stick with 15 year average intervals vs. 30 with how rapidly our climate is changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 Just now, SnoSki14 said: We should probably stick with 15 year average intervals vs. 30 with how rapidly our climate is changing. Just now, SnoSki14 said: We should probably stick with 15 year average intervals vs. 30 with how rapidly our climate is changing. Yes I think if we use 15 year averages we would have temps that are much more realistic for normal in today's climate. If we keep going like this it would be difficult to get anywhere near average snow for philly south in about 20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 Sunday looks like a very warm day with temps in the low to mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Sunday looks like a very warm day with temps in the low to mid 80s. Looks like a top 5 warmest Easter. Top 5 warmest Easters in NYC 1)...96...4-18-76 2)...86...4-22-62....4-22-73 3)...85...4-21-57 4)...83...4-9-1871 5)...80...4-24-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 We are making nice progress with the drought. 3 months ago: Now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 What "warm less spell" we've been doing nothing but torching and it looks to continue with the pacific firehose promoting more eastern ridging. Guarantee this April ends up being another top 10 warmest month. Beyond Sunday the models keep temperatures very close to normal. That should ultimately pull down departures. Won't come anywhere close to a +5 departure. Will be 2-3 above at most.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 the ao is forecast to be at its lowest level since October...whether it gets that low remains to be seen...The ao forecasts have been anything but good...If it does get that low we could be seeing some late April or early May freezes in the usual cold spots... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 58 minutes ago, Tekken_Guy said: Beyond Sunday the models keep temperatures very close to normal. That should ultimately pull down departures. Won't come anywhere close to a +5 departure. Will be 2-3 above at most. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk We'll have to average near normal or slightly below from the 17th on for that to occur. We'll be around +6 past the halfway point. It will only take a couple warmups to keep the 2nd half above normal as well. I think we'll finish around +4 to +4.5 possibly higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 Miserable day, 40 this morning, and 55 and windy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 The worst Spring days are the cold damp ones after we had a real warm spell...Here are some of the worst days we had after the first warm spell... 4/25/1976...49 max... 4/25/1955...49 max... 4/26/1976...46 max... 4/26/1955...46 max... 4/29/1964...47 max... 5/02/1962...45 max... 5/09/1977...44 max with snow... 5/09/1972...49 max... 5/12/2010...48 max... 5/17/1915...52 max... 5/18/2002...55 max... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 2 hours ago, uncle W said: The worst Spring days are the cold damp ones after we had a real warm spell...Here are some of the worst days we had after the first warm spell... 4/25/1976...49 max... 4/25/1955...49 max... 4/26/1976...46 max... 4/26/1955...46 max... 4/29/1964...47 max... 5/02/1962...45 max... 5/09/1977...44 max with snow... 5/09/1972...49 max... 5/12/2010...48 max... 5/17/1915...52 max... 5/18/2002...55 max... 4/12/2013? 4/16/2014? 4/30/2014? All those days from last year? They all have got to fit here. Anyway. The latest models seem to all show the same thing. The "heatless spell" is looking far less likely from now, although there are still no signs of a repeat of the last two days beyond Easter. We'll have the Easter heat, a cooler but still warm follow-up day, and then two days of cool. The models tend to diverge from 4/21 on. GFS is running cool, ECMWF and GEFS are going a bit above average with mostly upper 60s. So, yeah, my theory of "April will stay near average after Easter" is now in doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 7 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said: 4/12/2013? 4/16/2014? 4/30/2014? All those days from last year? They all have got to fit here. Anyway. The latest models seem to all show the same thing. The "heatless spell" is looking far less likely from now, although there are still no signs of a repeat of the last two days beyond Easter. We'll have the Easter heat, a cooler but still warm follow-up day, and then two days of cool. The models tend to diverge from 4/21 on. GFS is running cool, ECMWF and GEFS are going a bit above average with mostly upper 60s. So, yeah, my theory of "April will stay near average after Easter" is now in doubt. I was looking at years with some days 85 degrees or higher before it got cold again...I remember a cold day in May 1987 when I had to turn the heat back on in my house...1962 had a two days around 90 in late April and a few days later it was in the mid 40's during the day with drizzle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 Top 5 warmest minimums this April so far for our local stations. The newly updated ISP data back to 1964 has this April with the warmest min so far. There is the potential for this to be only the 6th year since 64 at Islip without an April freeze. Those other years were some pretty hot summers. Warmest April monthly mins for ISP 34...2017...2010..1988... 33...1999...1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 Next 8 days jump to +9 (62 vs. 53). Most of the days are just cloudy with a chance of showers however +4.3 x 13 = +56. + 9 x 8 = +72. or +128/21 = +6.1 by the 22. If rest of month is then just normal, we would finish April @ +4.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 Upton forecasting 79 for NW Suffolk for sunday...wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: Upton forecasting 79 for NW Suffolk for sunday...wow! Whats has been your highest temp this spring so far? I hit 90 earlier this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Whats has been your highest temp this spring so far? I hit 90 earlier this week. 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 On 4/9/2017 at 8:47 AM, dmillz25 said: Funny I was watching that game on YES yesterday the Matsui grand slam I was too- great memories. It was actually snowing a little bit during the later innings. 35 degrees game time temperature on the day after the snowfall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 On 4/9/2017 at 7:25 AM, bluewave said: First 80 or greater potential this week in the warmer parts of the area away from the ocean influence. This is very close to the current 15 year average for TTN-EWR corridor. Could see some stronger Ambrose Jet activity near the South Shore of Long Island with the big temperature differential. 15 year average first 80 dates around the area TTN...4-8 EWR...4-9 NYC...4-18 LGA...4-20 JFK...4-30 BDR..5-4 ISP...5-4 Well at least we got our first 70 degree temp out here, who knows when we'll get our first 80- maybe Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 44 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Whats has been your highest temp this spring so far? I hit 90 earlier this week. You hit 90?! When lol, and what location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 12 hours ago, uncle W said: I was looking at years with some days 85 degrees or higher before it got cold again...I remember a cold day in May 1987 when I had to turn the heat back on in my house...1962 had a two days around 90 in late April and a few days later it was in the mid 40's during the day with drizzle... 1990 is a prime example, 85 in mid march then snow in early april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 On 4/13/2017 at 10:39 AM, bluewave said: Looks like a top 5 warmest Easter. Top 5 warmest Easters in NYC 1)...96...4-18-76 2)...86...4-22-62....4-22-73 3)...85...4-21-57 4)...83...4-9-1871 5)...80...4-24-11 When was Easter in 2002 when we had that big April heatwave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 On 4/12/2017 at 2:52 PM, psv88 said: With SWFE's for example, many times the south shore changes over or mixes while the north shore stays all frozen right to the end of the storm. Jim from Long Beach will tell you his experiences with that... The Snowicane i believe comes to mind as another example, where the south shore mixed but LIE north stayed all snow and we dumped, got like 16" or some crazy amount. I believe it was the snowicane. The difference between Commack and ISP and even FRG in marginal events is huge. Once you go even further north towards Caumsett its like a different climate altogether. Snowicane- you mean the late Feb 2010 storm right? That was more of a west to east thing, where western areas changed over first. JFK got 10-12" with that because they changed over to snow before Suffolk County did. Also, it depends on when the SWFE occurs- if it occurs in December, the south shore changes over early on, if it happens in February we all stay mainly snow (like February 2008 which dumped 8 inches here.) Snowicane wasn't an SWFE anyway it was a retrograding coastal storm. SWFE are usually boring windless west to east type storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: You hit 90?! When lol, and what location? Tuesday afternoon, about 2 miles south of KMGJ which hit 88 that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 On 4/12/2017 at 10:36 AM, bluewave said: It's actually better down here during the summer since we get great seabreezes to take the edge off the heat. The only exception are the very hot offshore flow days when the seabreeze is cutoff. I know you like your 100s too for their historical nature ;-) We did hit the 70s here on Wednesday. I hope we make it to 80 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 On 4/12/2017 at 11:09 AM, psv88 said: Agree to disagree I guess. I had about 44" inches of snow this winter, about the same as Upton. South Shore areas got less. It's also the LI sound effect. I think it was January blizzard this year where the north shore cashed in on a sound enhanced inverted trough, which didnt make it south of the LIE for the most part. The north shore from Bayside, Queens east often add to their totals due to this effect. In marginal events, which there were a few this winter, you were "snowing" but not sticking, while we had a snow covered roads. So its more complicated than the south shore areas staying all snow. For example, in the sleet storm, blizzard bust, i was sleeting for 2-3 hours below freezing after ISP had turned to rain already. That January storm was my favorite storm of the entire winter, we got around 11" here, and the February storm was about 10" Our two double digit storms here in SW Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 On 4/12/2017 at 3:06 PM, bluewave said: The Euro has a slightly slower frontal passage on Sunday with 80's again. With more of a WSW flow, parts of Long Island may see their first 80 of the year. 80 possible for JFK on Sunday? Great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Tuesday afternoon, about 2 miles south of KMGJ which hit 88 that afternoon. Wow, you must have the trees budding already. I actually have some green showing up already on the lower branches of trees here. Out of the LHV airports (POU, MGJ, SWF, DXR) was MGJ the warmest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 12 hours ago, uncle W said: I was looking at years with some days 85 degrees or higher before it got cold again...I remember a cold day in May 1987 when I had to turn the heat back on in my house...1962 had a two days around 90 in late April and a few days later it was in the mid 40's during the day with drizzle... There was a day in the 60s in late May where LGA had ice pellets- had it again back in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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