dmillz25 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 2:43 PM, forkyfork said: Expand Jesus. Thats 90s for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 2:38 PM, NJwx85 said: Forky was mocking posters for saying the pattern looked average to slightly below average temperature wise and then said it would continue trending warmer and warmer for today. Expand Well crash and burn on that, there are people in my office wishing the heat was on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 2:17 PM, IrishRob17 said: For only a couple weeks? I was hearing them before the blizzard, maybe because I live along the water? Expand Yeah, I heard the first Peepers going back 2, maybe 3 weeks ago. It seems they usually show up around very late March into early April around here. Could be your location like you said. The Katy-Dids, or bush crickets, usually wait until it stays consistently warm at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 3:10 PM, JerseyWx said: Yeah, I heard the first Peepers going back 2, maybe 3 weeks ago. It seems they usually show up around very late March into early April around here. The Katy-Dids, or bush crickets, usually wait until it stays consistently warm at night. Expand No crickets here yet either. The night before the blizzard I was outside and heard the peepers and thought how they were in for a rude awakening that week. Such a blah day out there today. Picked up .60 in the bucket as of 8am though which brought me to .81 for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 3:14 PM, IrishRob17 said: No crickets here yet either. The night before the blizzard I was outside and heard the peepers and thought how they were in for a rude awakening that week. Such a blah day out there today. Picked up .60 in the bucket as of 8am though which brought me to .81 for the week Expand Yeah, once you hear the Crickets, Summer has basically arrived. Gloomy here too. That nice soaking rain helped wash away the pollen dust at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 3:12 PM, bluewave said: Whether the warm spots hit 90 or not for the end of the month will down to the location of the high. The EPS has more of a SE flow while the OP Euro goes SSW. You can see the spread between the OP and EPS near the end of the run. Expand Looks like we stay in the 40s/low 50s for the next 4-5 days. Sunday and Monday look particularly chilly. Major heat possible for the final days of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 3:22 PM, nzucker said: Looks like we stay in the 40s/low 50s for the next 4-5 days. Sunday and Monday look particularly chilly. Major heat possible for the final days of month. Expand Don't be surprised if we go right back to the 60 this weekend if we get some breaks of sun. The magnitude of the late month warm up for any given location will depend on whether the flow is more SE or SW in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 some developing el nino years had a 90 degree day in April...1896, 1976, 1991, 2002 and 2009...1896 and 1991 had very warm May's...1976, 2002 and 2009 had cooler May's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 3:30 PM, bluewave said: Don't be surprised if we go right back to the 60's tomorrow as we downslope with some breaks of sun. Later in the month has the potential for the first 90's of the season if the flow becomes SW. It will depend on how HP lingers near the maritimes which would turn the flow more onshore here instead. Expand Tomorrow will probably be the warmest of the upcoming four days with a westerly flow and thus lighter cloud cover. Probably near 60F before we slip back into the mid 50s for Sunday-Tuesday. If I had to guess, tomorrow is the warmest day of the stretch with a high of 61-62F, Monday and today are the coldest with highs around 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 3:33 PM, nzucker said: Tomorrow will probably be the warmest of the upcoming four days with a westerly flow and thus lighter cloud cover. Probably near 60F before we slip back into the mid 50s for Sunday-Tuesday. If I had to guess, tomorrow is the warmest day of the stretch with a high of 61-62F, Monday and today are the coldest with highs around 50F. Expand My guess is that Tuesday may be the coolest of the bunch after today with the low coming up the coast with the stronger onshore flow and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 3:41 PM, bluewave said: My guess is that Tuesday may be the coolest of the bunch after today with the low coming up the coast with the stronger onshore flow and showers. Expand Certainly possible. The forecasts have been WAY off lately...too cold on the AN days and too warm on the BN days. Today was originally forecast to be in the 60s by the NWS, and you and Forky discussed 80s, which verified as 50F overcast with cold NE winds. I definitely think Monday and Tuesday could remain in the 40s with strong enough onshore flow, overcast, and showers. Should be pretty nasty though I tend to enjoy the last vestiges of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 You wonder if a piece of the arctic cold over SE Canada (-25C 850s on the south shore of Hudson Bay) will ever make an appearance in the NYC metro before dissipating later in spring. Those are extreme anomalies for this time of year. There is a decent chance a quick shot of heat is followed by a sharp cold front and MCS threat...6z GFS suggests this. Later, a high looks to build in to our northeast again, leading to a BDCF pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 4:26 PM, nzucker said: Certainly possible. The forecasts have been WAY off lately...too cold on the AN days and too warm on the BN days. Today was originally forecast to be in the 60s by the NWS, and you and Forky discussed 80s, which verified as 50F overcast with cold NE winds. I definitely think Monday and Tuesday could remain in the 40s with strong enough onshore flow, overcast, and showers. Should be pretty nasty though I tend to enjoy the last vestiges of winter. Expand Most of the time the model runs had the warm front south today. That's why I mentioned last weekend that we may have to wait until the end of April or May for our next 80 which worked out. There were a few runs of the models that got the warm front through for today but that was short lived before they reversed themselves again. There has been a tendency for more high pressure to verify at times near the maritimes like we saw today. It's par for the course in spring especially when we get -AO dips. It's one of the rare times in recent months that the AO actually made it down to -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2017 Author Share Posted April 21, 2017 I'll take the over in terms of rainfall potential early next week. Most modeling showing potential for widespread 1"+ with a cut off low. 12z GGEM is 2"+ for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 5:05 PM, NJwx85 said: I'll take the over in terms of rainfall potential early next week. Most modeling showing potential for widespread 1"+ with a cut off low. 12z GGEM is 2"+ for most. Expand Last week the under paid big, we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 21, 2017 Author Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 5:14 PM, IrishRob17 said: Last week the under paid big, we shall see Expand It was pretty clear from about ten days ago that the wet pattern wasn't going to return until late this week. I could see that before I even left for Vegas. Things are right on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 4:43 PM, bluewave said: Most of the time the model runs had the warm front south today. That's why I mentioned last weekend that we may have to wait until the end of April or May for our next 80 which worked out. There were a few runs of the models that got the warm front through for today but that was short lived before they reversed themselves again. There has been a tendency for more high pressure to verify at times near the maritimes like we saw today. It's par for the course in spring especially when we get -AO dips. It's one of the rare times in recent months that the AO actually made it down to -1. Expand That one ECM run showed the warm front lifting north, but as you say, the majority kept it down by PHL/S NJ. A few miles in the position of the warm front can make a big difference in sensible weather this time of year...80s to the south of front, 40s to its north. AO has been stuck on positive since the SSW in late October. The unusual double +QBO is probably the main reason for the lack of blocking. Hard to see huge blocks with a +QBO, low solar, and La Nina. I suspect blocking returns next fall with a big shift to a weak, west-based Nino, -QBO, with the background of low solar activity and cooler global temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 5:25 PM, nzucker said: That one ECM run showed the warm front lifting north, but as you say, the majority kept it down by PHL/S NJ. A few miles in the position of the warm front can make a big difference in sensible weather this time of year...80s to the south of front, 40s to its north. AO has been stuck on positive since the SSW in late October. The unusual double +QBO is probably the main reason for the lack of blocking. Hard to see huge blocks with a +QBO, low solar, and La Nina. I suspect blocking returns next fall with a big shift to a weak, west-based Nino, -QBO, with the background of low solar activity and cooler global temps. Expand Something changed with the Northern Hemisphere pattern following the record breaking March 2013 -AO. The AO has flipped to a more positive state with only transient negative drops since that time. It's been 4 years since the AO dropped to -2 or lower for a monthly average. Over the same period there hasn't been two consecutive -1 months. The last time we went this long without two -1 months in a row was 2005-2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 the gfs op has a backdoor high while the gfes trended away from one. go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 5:32 PM, bluewave said: Something changed with the Northern Hemisphere pattern following the record breaking March 2013 -AO. The AO has flipped to a more positive state with only transient negative drops since that time. It's been 4 years since the AO dropped to -2 or lower for a monthly average. Over the same period there hasn't been two consecutive -1 months. The last time we went this long without two -1 months in a row was 2005-2009. Expand Same thing with the NAO. We had huge blocking in Winter 09-10 (actually too much as the high heights cut off the cold), December 2010, January 2011, and March 2013. After that, it disappeared. May be a result of the QBO or the recovery from the previous low solar cycle (Cycle 24). We've had some great periods of -EPO/NPAC blocking that have allowed us to stay cold and snowy...13-14 and 14-15 both had powerful blocks. The record 27" on 1/24/16 was also a result of a favorable Pacific combining with a Kara Sea ridge. It would be nice if we saw a weak El Nino with traditional blocking next winter. Could be the coldest and snowiest winter in three years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 6:10 PM, nzucker said: Same thing with the NAO. We had huge blocking in Winter 09-10 (actually too much as the high heights cut off the cold), December 2010, January 2011, and March 2013. After that, it disappeared. May be a result of the QBO or the recovery from the previous low solar cycle (Cycle 24). We've had some great periods of -EPO/NPAC blocking that have allowed us to stay cold and snowy...13-14 and 14-15 both had powerful blocks. The record 27" on 1/24/16 was also a result of a favorable Pacific combining with a Kara Sea ridge. It would be nice if we saw a weak El Nino with traditional blocking next winter. Could be the coldest and snowiest winter in three years. Expand Grand shift in the blocking regime from Greenland to NW Canada. You can see how the circulation change was associated with the PDO going positive. 2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53 0.09 0.52 0.27 -0.40 0.08 2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21 2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79 2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48 2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67 1.08 1.49 1.72 2.51 2015** 2.45 2.30 2.00 1.44 1.20 1.54 1.84 1.56 1.94 1.47 0.86 1.01 2016** 1.53 1.75 2.40 2.62 2.35 2.03 1.25 0.52 0.45 0.56 1.88 1.17 2017** 0.77 0.70 0.74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 6:44 PM, bluewave said: Grand shift in the blocking regime from Greenland to NW Canada. You can see how the circulation change was associated with the PDO going positive. 2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53 0.09 0.52 0.27 -0.40 0.08 2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21 2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79 2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48 2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25 -1.04 -0.48 -0.87 -0.11 -0.41 2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67 1.08 1.49 1.72 2.51 2015** 2.45 2.30 2.00 1.44 1.20 1.54 1.84 1.56 1.94 1.47 0.86 1.01 2016** 1.53 1.75 2.40 2.62 2.35 2.03 1.25 0.52 0.45 0.56 1.88 1.17 2017** 0.77 0.70 0.74 Expand we got more snow from 2013-16 with a worse 500mb look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 9:08 PM, uncle W said: we got more snow from 2013-16 with a worse 500mb look... Expand The -EPO substituted for the the AO on many occasions. But to really deliver the goods for the historic January 2016 blizzard we needed the -AO. The lack of the -AO in early March prevented that big 20-30" jackpot from being along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 21, 2017 Share Posted April 21, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 2:43 PM, forkyfork said: Expand MOTHER OF GOD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Top 10 warm April through the 21st across the area. NYC...#5...LGA....#2....EWR...#7....BDR...#3...ISP....#5...JFK...#5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 Yeah so I missed the memo that said it was going to rain up here this morning, I thought today was a dry day and maybe some sun in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 On 4/22/2017 at 12:06 PM, IrishRob17 said: Yeah so I missed the memo that said it was going to rain up here this morning, I thought today was a dry day and maybe some sun in the afternoon. Expand Looking now like tomorrow will be the nicer day of the weekend with the potential to get back above 60 with some breaks of sun. Forecasts can change on a dime when you have a warm front stall near the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 On 4/22/2017 at 12:25 PM, bluewave said: Looking now like tomorrow will be the nicer day of the weekend with the potential to get back above 60 with some breaks of sun. Forecasts can change on a dime when you have a warm front stall near the area. Expand No doubt on that but let's lock up a 10 day map that shows the heat coming though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 2:43 PM, forkyfork said: Expand Ah, this is MUCH better- I was a bit concerned about the other one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 22, 2017 Share Posted April 22, 2017 On 4/21/2017 at 4:34 PM, nzucker said: You wonder if a piece of the arctic cold over SE Canada (-25C 850s on the south shore of Hudson Bay) will ever make an appearance in the NYC metro before dissipating later in spring. Those are extreme anomalies for this time of year. There is a decent chance a quick shot of heat is followed by a sharp cold front and MCS threat...6z GFS suggests this. Later, a high looks to build in to our northeast again, leading to a BDCF pattern. Expand You mean that Arctic cold that's causing record snowfall in Caribou, Maine? They had over 4 inches the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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