NJwx85 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Ensembles support an above average precip pattern for at least the first ten days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 big rainstorms on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 3 big rainstorms on the Euro Total QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Total QPF? 2-3+ inches for the metro through 8 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 hour ago, Morris said: 2-3+ inches for the metro through 8 days I wouldn't call that theee big rain storms. But definitely wet and above average precip wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I wouldn't call that theee big rain storms. But definitely wet and above average precip wise He wasn't including the day 10 storm. We have three major systems coming, one Friday, one early next week and then one late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Based on the 06z GEFS, showing substantial threat of minor to moderate flooding on the Passaic River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Regardless of the particulars... let's just say an active pattern at the very least. Looks like moderate temperatures too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 The system for early next week could actually end up even wetter than tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 i can't remember the last time we saw so many 2" rain events in such a short amount of time. even oct 2005 and aug 2011 had longer breaks than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Last dry spring I wished for a change from the boring weather, yeah sorry I did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 This is payback or payoff for last year's bone-dry spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 The reservoir near my house ( Shawangunk Lake) is literally bursting at the seams right now. Complete reversal from this time 6 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 My fear is it will be cold and wet until June like a few years back, i don't remember the exact year but it was cold and rain on Memorial day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, marsplex said: My fear is it will be cold and wet until June like a few years back, i don't remember the exact year but it was cold and rain on Memorial day. 2009...The year that I don't want to relive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 19 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: 2009...The year that I don't want to relive. I do because of the following winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like we have a shot at the wettest 3/31-4/7 on record around the area.That Nino 1+2 spike and fading La Nina are producing more of a wet spring El Nino pattern here. #1 1987 4.83 #2 1984 4.37 #3 1973 3.55 #4 1982 3.45 # 5 1886 3.32 Question is, with the type of storminess that we've seen in late winter seasons and early springs just prior to big el ninos, does this give us a hint of a big el nino coming for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: I do because of the following winter Bingo, I'll take a cool wet spring for another 09/10 winter, a no brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 8 hours ago, Paragon said: Question is, with the type of storminess that we've seen in late winter seasons and early springs just prior to big el ninos, does this give us a hint of a big el nino coming for next winter? While it's too early to guess about the winter, the ensembles continue this more Nino-like stormy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 12 hours ago, marsplex said: My fear is it will be cold and wet until June like a few years back, i don't remember the exact year but it was cold and rain on Memorial day. The Friday of Memorial Day weekend in 2013 was pretty awful. I think the high was about 45 degrees and there was a steady rain all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: While it's too early to guess about the winter, the ensembles continue this more Nino-like stormy pattern. I hope this is the start of the stormier pattern that I was hoping for last fall. Unfortunately a day late and a dollar short for this past winter but hopefully a stormier pattern is on tap for the spring/summer which will lead us into and through the upcoming fall and winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I hope this is the start of the stormier pattern that I was hoping for last fall. Unfortunately a day late and a dollar short for this past winter but hopefully a stormier pattern is on tap for the spring/summer which will lead us into and through the upcoming fall and winter months. Spring is getting off to a wet start with many local stations finishing March with over 5.00" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Spring is getting off to a wet start with many local stations finishing March with over 5.00" of precip. With 2 more heavy rain makers expected for the upcoming week flooding issues a certainly going to start to arise. I had 2.05" of rain yesterday with 3.15" since Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: With 2 more heavy rain makers expected for the upcoming week flooding issues a certainly going to start to arise. I had 2.05" of rain yesterday with 3.15" since Monday. 7th wettest March on record for JFK with 5.79" 1 2010 8.62 0 2 1980 8.17 0 3 2001 7.00 0 4 1993 6.83 0 5 1983 6.66 0 6 1984 5.99 0 7 2017 5.79 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Despite a total fail for the LR Analogs in March, they continue to show the rest of the year AN, almost everywhere in the 48. EURO weeklies at least for April look a little AN for the first 20 days of the month, then show a wicked 10 day cold spell, so who knows how April will turn out. The 2 year run of AN months is history, and the analogs look to start another one, but they better watch the quiet sun and a warming stratosphere that could result in a BN troposphere over a good part of the earth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 First 8 days of April look +3degs. AN (52 vs. 49). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Despite a total fail for the LR Analogs in March, they continue to show the rest of the year AN, almost everywhere in the 48. EURO weeklies at least for April look a little AN for the first 20 days of the month, then show a wicked 10 day cold spell, so who knows how April will turn out. The 2 year run of AN months is history, and the analogs look to start another one, but they better watch the quiet sun and a warming stratosphere that could result in a BN troposphere over a good part of the earth. Rest of the year above normal?..and they couldn't get the next month right..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 tuesday looks mildly interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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