Hoosier Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 New day 2 outlook will be out soon, but the first SWODY2 has a moderate risk into southwestern KY with an enhanced risk into far southern IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Looks like a wind event but there may be a brief windows for tornadoes as far north as i70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 24 minutes ago, tornadohunter said: Looks like a wind event but there may be a brief windows for tornadoes as far north as i70. Yeah, I think there's a shot in the northern target area closer to the warm front, perhaps even north of I-70 if enough destabilization occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 44 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah, I think there's a shot in the northern target area closer to the warm front, perhaps even north of I-70 if enough destabilization occurs. 12z HRRRX has 1500+ cape around northwest indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Storm continues to deepen. Now down to 1002 mb in se KS. Might hold some surprises farther north than anticipated on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Nam 3km... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 HRRR has widespread cape of >2000 around the illinois/indiana/kentucky area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Fairly large 10% tornado area on the new outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Haven't really looked too hard into this event because I can't chase, but not too impressed with many of the forecast soundings in the instability axis for this sub. Low-level wind fields are fairly veered on the HRRR runs that I've seen. 10% tor probs may be a little too robust north of the OH River IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 42 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Haven't really looked too hard into this event because I can't chase, but not too impressed with many of the forecast soundings in the instability axis for this sub. Low-level wind fields are fairly veered on the HRRR runs that I've seen. 10% tor probs may be a little too robust north of the OH River IMHO. 10% tor probs dropped and enhanced risk sized down greatly. Good call on the SPC's part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Based on WV imagery, surface obs and high resolution guidance, southern to central Indiana should destabilize decently this afternoon (1000-1500+ J/kg SBCAPE) with some breaks in the cloud deck. Given the placement of a warm front, backing of low level winds and favorable deep layer shear, some robust convection could fire in the area by mid-afternoon. If any relatively discrete cells can interact with the warm front, a locally elevated tornado threat could develop in central Indiana. This may also extend into far western Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Awesome read Quincy. Seems Murphy's law has come to fruition each day thus far, but certainly a threat remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 59 minutes ago, Quincy said: Based on WV imagery, surface obs and high resolution guidance, southern to central Indiana should destabilize decently this afternoon (1000-1500+ J/kg SBCAPE) with some breaks in the cloud deck. Given the placement of a warm front, backing of low level winds and favorable deep layer shear, some robust convection could fire in the area by mid-afternoon. If any relatively discrete cells can interact with the warm front, a locally elevated tornado threat could develop in central Indiana. This may also extend into far western Ohio. The cloud deck right along the Ohio River is clearing pretty quickly. I agree the area you outlined in S. IN will pose the biggest threat for anything discrete. I can see the potential extending into SW Ohio too depending on where/when the action initiates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Quincy said: Based on WV imagery, surface obs and high resolution guidance, southern to central Indiana should destabilize decently this afternoon (1000-1500+ J/kg SBCAPE) with some breaks in the cloud deck. Given the placement of a warm front, backing of low level winds and favorable deep layer shear, some robust convection could fire in the area by mid-afternoon. If any relatively discrete cells can interact with the warm front, a locally elevated tornado threat could develop in central Indiana. This may also extend into far western Ohio. Thanks Quincy. I mentioned the warm front possibilities in a briefing to my spotters, fire, and law enforcement this morning. The front may not make this far north, but it's nice to know that you concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 SPC must really be deliberating with the new Day 1 Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The HRRR has some of the updraft helicity tracks considerably far into Ohio. That could mean wind or hail in western Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 First svr warning of the day for our subforum nw of St. Louis at Grafton IL and Pere Marquette State Park moving ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Not much of a change from spc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 33 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Thanks Quincy. I mentioned the warm front possibilities in a briefing to my spotters, fire, and law enforcement this morning. The front may not make this far north, but it's nice to know that you concur. Agree on the Huntington area being iffy. In Indiana, I'd watch that LAF-OKK corridor and eastward as that should be near where the frontal zone ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Very complex scenario in the Ohio Valley. If enough destabilization can occur i will not be shocked if there are several tornadoes in Indiana and Ohio today. The warm front might be an big focal point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The possibility of tornadoes with WF t storms is always a concern in these parts especially in early spring. I'm going to be watching broken areas of clearing very closely today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 mini SUP alert ahead of the line for central IL also thisSPC MCD 301755 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-302000- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0379 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CDT THU MAR 30 2017 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IN...FAR NORTHERN KY...WESTERN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 301755Z - 302000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT AS WELL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO COVER THE POTENTIAL THREAT. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN IN OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR, SUGGESTING BOTH AN INCREASE IN THE FORCING FOR ASCENT AS WELL AS SOME DESTABILIZATION. WAVE STRUCTURE TO THE NEW CLOUDS SUGGESTS THE AREA REMAINS STABLE BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AND AN OVERALL ENVIRONMENT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS. STRONG KINEMATIC FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN SAMPLED WELL BY AREA VAD PROFILES. RECENT DATA FROM IND AND ILX REPORTED 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT, WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT HAIL PRODUCTION WITHIN THESE ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN THOSE AREAS WHERE THE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL THREAT, A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..MOSIER/GUYER.. 03/30/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Sun starting to really peak out here in Noblesville. Had some brief showers earlier but not too worried about their influence at the moment. The sun coming back through should help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 WF has passed Indpls. Jumped to 67/58 and feels noticeably more humid outside now than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Things are definitely looking more interesting than they were a few hours ago. Central Indiana appears to have cleared the WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Sun's back out here. WF is on the doorstep. Let's see if we can get some marginal destabilization over the next few hours. After the drought this winter I'm ready for some action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Warm front is pretty well north of Cincy at this point-- air mass here is juiced (mid 70's going on 3+ hours of sun/mixed with thin clouds.....steady winds).... I knew something was cooking...you can just feel it and just took a look at SPC....definitely on my toes now the next 6 hours or so. Dew point only in the mid 50's...seems a touch low but what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 72/63 in Columbus IN. Moisture definitely surging northward now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I think the extent of the clearing was underestimated a bit. Could get interesting for us W OH folks this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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