NJwx85 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Models have been advertising for several days a WAA event transitioning to an intensifying coastal storm. All guidance points towards significant impacts with coastal flooding, strong winds, heavy rain and inland snows possible. The 12z GGEM would bring significant Wintry Weather to the far interior Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Typical early spring noreaster with heavy rain for the coast and snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 This is getting a little more interesting each day. If the mid levels weren't so warm this would have a real shot in the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Mt Holly NWS was honking sleet/freezing rain for the interior Friday night & Saturday in the morning afd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just to be clear---this is not an April fools joke ? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Just to be clear---this is not an April fools joke ? lol No it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The threat for wintry weather even up here in the far interior is very low. You are gonna have to be 100 miles inland with atleast 1000' to have any shot at anything appreciable right now. Im prob looking at 33° and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 49 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Just to be clear---this is not an April fools joke ? lol Nope, big time rain event shaping up for this Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Looks like it's getting a little bit cooler. My p&c shows ~36 hours of mixed precip now, yesterday it was showing all rain. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Bit of a freezing rain signal up in places like Orange County on the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Flooding now seems likely on the Passaic River with a 27% chance according to the MMEFS ensemble forecast model of exceeding major stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 hours ago, gravitylover said: Looks like it's getting a little bit cooler. My p&c shows ~36 hours of mixed precip now, yesterday it was showing all rain. Yuck. Upton seems to be getting concerned for more of a wintry event for the interior. Things have def trended colder Across interior portions of NE NJ/Lower Hud Valley/Southern CT...thermal profiles will be marginally cold enough to complicate the forecast late Tonight through Friday Night. Storm track will be critical...with a farther south track favoring cooler and more wintry mix potential...while a track over NYC/LI favors warmer thermal profile and more in the way of plain rain. At onset of steadier precip lat tonight/Fri am...evap cooling will increase the likelihood for a wintry mix of rain/sleet and snow across interior. Operational models all indicating warming aloft as Fri morning progresses but to differing degrees. With that said...March boundary layer warming should allow for precip in most areas to become mainly rain by afternoon...except elevations above 750-1000 ft or so. Late Fri Aft into Fri night...dynamics increase as closed low energy approaches and frontogenetic banding strengthens over the area to the north of the developing coastal low. At the same time low-level winds backing to the ne/n should allow the boundary layer to slowly cool. The question will be whether diabatic processes can overcome warming aloft from se llj to bring a period of heavier sleet...possibly mixed with snow. 90 percent exceedance snow/sleet forecast covers this low potential for a period of complete changeover to wintry precip. Another concern is that temperatures across interior...particularly higher elevations...could haver around/drop to freezing Fri night...introducing the potential for freezing rain. Marginal temp profiles will not support efficient icing...but the threat of hazardous travel from light icing exists. Based on above...this is a low confidence snow/sleet accum forecast for the interior. At this point the most likely outcome is varying combinations of mixed precip during the period with a light slushy accum of sleet/wet snow/fzra across the interior...especially elevations above 750-1000 ft...by the time everything winds down Sat am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 Could be good enough for snow at UlsterCountySnowz's house. Sounding supports a wet snow as the atmosphere is below freezing except at the very lowest level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 GFS is 1-2 inches region wide for tomorrow and very wet in the days beyond this weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 It's likely with these elevation based storms that NYC/LI gets in on some mixed in frozen precipation too. So many times in late March this happens without it being forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 33 minutes ago, sferic said: It's likely with these elevation based storms that NYC/LI gets in on some mixed in frozen precipation too. So many times in late March this happens without it being forecasted. Highly unlikely, it's not even close for those areas. The GFS says the surface is going to be near 40 degrees during the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 It could be rather windy in places to the North of the SLP track for a few hours tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 58 minutes ago, sferic said: It's likely with these elevation based storms that NYC/LI gets in on some mixed in frozen precipation too. So many times in late March this happens without it being forecasted. Not even remotely close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 The 12z RGEM has 3-4" in places South of Philly a bit closer to the SLP track. If that ends up a bit further North, we could really get walloped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Not even remotely close If there is a cold pocket around 925 we could get some sleet mixing in down to the city. Sleet can fall down to the surface with temps in the low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: If there is a cold pocket around 925 we could get some sleet mixing in down to the city. Sleet can fall down to the surface with temps in the low 40s There in lies the problem, there will be a mid-level warm nose tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Those dry anomalies should get trimmed back Friday afternoon into the evening with the heavy rain potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Euro now on board with next week being extremely wet as well. Some places get 5" between now and next Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro now on board with next week being extremely wet as well. Some places get 5" between now and next Wednesday Hopefully, this very wet period into early April marks the end of the 2 year drought pattern which was the driest here since 01 and 02. I guess we'll find out once we see how the rest of the spring and summer turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 hours ago, sferic said: It's likely with these elevation based storms that NYC/LI gets in on some mixed in frozen precipation too. So many times in late March this happens without it being forecasted. I don't know about the 5 Boroughs, but I can definitely see Westchester, Rockland, and perhaps the N Shore of LI getting some flakes or mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, nzucker said: I don't know about the 5 Boroughs, but I can definitely see Westchester, Rockland, and perhaps the N Shore of LI getting some flakes or mixing. Honestly im not sold on even seeing flakes up here let alone down there. Should be interesting to watch unfold tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, snywx said: Honestly im not sold on even seeing flakes up here let alone down there. Should be interesting to watch unfold tomorrow I'm supposed to be driving 17 to the Poconos tomorrow. However, I've got the stomach thing…may stay home in the Bronx if it doesn't clear up. Really would like to see the precip types up there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, snywx said: Honestly im not sold on even seeing flakes up here let alone down there. Should be interesting to watch unfold tomorrow Even up by you the best you are going to see is sleet mixing in with rain. Look at how far north the 0 degree 850mb line is, plus you have a mid-level warm punch at 750mb, that is not a snow sounding at all, maybe sleet up by you, definitely not snow. The boundary layer is also obviously a major issue. This is an all rain event for everyone south of your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Even up by you the best you are going to see is sleet mixing in with rain. Look at how far north the 0 degree 850mb line is, plus you have a mid-level warm punch at 700mb, that is not a snow sounding at all, maybe sleet up by you, definitely not snow. The boundary layer is also obviously a major issue. This is an all rain event for everyone south of your area I agree.. I don't see anyone south of I-90 seeing anything appreciable. Tomorrow will have that wintry feel up here regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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