CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Ray is salivating to put me in his beast of a man shed. The same one I used on him for a few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 That's the H5 look I would want for good snows too late season. Falling heights and closing H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, DomNH said: No I know, my point is that if I'm going to go balls to the wall for an April blue bomb the last thing I want to see is dry midlevels. Ah... I get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Nice run... actually maybe a bit more northern stream interaction hours 54-72, we'll have to watch that in SNE because we can't afford this ticking much further north BOS soundings look really cold... warmest at hour 66 (06z Saturday)... looks like 0C 850T kisses Boston metro and then retreats. Otherwise looks plenty cold. Anyone else have better resolution to see if there is another warm layer in there? How warm was the surface in Boston? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Methinks it's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Nice run... actually maybe a bit more northern stream interaction hours 54-72, we'll have to watch that in SNE because we can't afford this ticking much further north BOS soundings look really cold... warmest at hour 66 (06z Saturday)... looks like 0C 850T kisses Boston metro and then retreats. Otherwise looks plenty cold. Anyone else have better resolution to see if there is another warm layer in there? It's a fine line of dynamics increasing versus too much WAA....northern stream interaction is good the later it occurs. We don't want it occurring too soon or we get skunked with WAA on the front end. But if N stream interaction is increased late once we have already started redeveloping the mid-level center, then it's a good thing as it add dynamic height falls and cooling (along with heavier precip)....so obviously there is a balance to achieve...esp at our latitude. Monadnocks to Greens don't really have to worry about this unless something crazy like the NAM happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 slush to heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: There were actually a bunch of places that got 1.5"-2" of water from that. 17" of beach sand here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: Not here.....lol, GGEM 4", Euro 15", I know where i would lean. You were too fast for me! At first blush the areas hit and amounts looked the same to me but I deleted my post as soon as I saw the difference in the Monadnocks and SENH. I didn't even get as far as ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 8 minutes ago, klw said: You were too fast for me! At first blush the areas hit and amounts looked the same to me but I deleted my post as soon as I saw the difference in the Monadnocks and SENH. I didn't even get as far as ME. lol, That last system on the 14th, The Euro was spot on here, And the GFS was terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 29 minutes ago, dryslot said: There's your classic KORH gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Where was this storm in January? I can't really afford to keep losing yard clean up weekends. The euro tells me to have the generator ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: There's your classic KORH gradient. All from mid-levels...don't see any coastal plain issues on that map where it's cold enough aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 It's easy to see the 850 gradient on that snow map. Places like cstl Essex county will do well where its -2C from 950-850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's easy to see the 850 gradient on that snow map. Places like cstl Essex county will do well where its -2C from 950-850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Ensembles are a hair cooler than 00z and obviously the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: congrats Dendrite That's 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's a fine line of dynamics increasing versus too much WAA....northern stream interaction is good the later it occurs. We don't want it occurring too soon or we get skunked with WAA on the front end. But if N stream interaction is increased late once we have already started redeveloping the mid-level center, then it's a good thing as it add dynamic height falls and cooling (along with heavier precip)....so obviously there is a balance to achieve...esp at our latitude. Monadnocks to Greens don't really have to worry about this unless something crazy like the NAM happens. Yeah it's a tight-rope. You can see how on this 12z run we close off the ULL, vs. 0z where it remains open, and we get better CCB dynamics. The surface low actually does tick further northwest, but the dynamics are better so net benefit. JBenedit I can't see the cross sections but based on 0z cross-sections, surface was warm throughout. We (for Boston metro) really need good dynamics, otherwise it's slush in the air and wet ground. I think this Euro run verbatim has good enough dynamics to get us at least 2-3" in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's 12z yesterday. congrats Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 no one is going to lose power for an extended period, the power outage card is always hyped up. 15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Where was this storm in January? I can't really afford to keep losing yard clean up weekends. The euro tells me to have the generator ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: no one is going to lose power for an extended period, the power outage card is always hyped up. Except in Dec 2008 and Oct 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 The main advantage this time is there are no leaves on the trees unlike in Oct 2011 but still, if this pans out and you get 6''+ of paste people will lose power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 This still reeks of an elevation event to me. I might be wrong, but I'll go to my grave liking this look for mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Except in Dec 2008 and Oct 2011 Ok, well 2011 was full leafs on trees, and people out this way didn't lose much power (so i heard, I lived in Natick at the time). And 2008 was the elusive ice storm. Sooooo, yeah I'm still right. k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Yeah it's a tight-rope. You can see how on this 12z run we close off the ULL, vs. 0z where it remains open, and we get better CCB dynamics. The surface low actually does tick further northwest, but the dynamics are better so net benefit. JBenedit I can't see the cross sections but based on 0z cross-sections, surface was warm throughout. We (for Boston metro) really need good dynamics, otherwise it's slush in the air and wet ground. I think this Euro run verbatim has good enough dynamics to get us at least 2-3" in Boston. Yea. I don't know if this is even something dynamics can overcome. With this stronger system and closer approach, per the 12z euro those east winds at the surface are really going to crank. I think the boundary layer will be flooded with maritime air in Boston, and points north and west of there. The trick is finding where that effect is offset by the dynamics and it's probably somewhere near KORH, and draw a line northeast from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Ok, well 2011 was full leafs on trees, and people out this way didn't lose much power (so i heard, I lived in Natick at the time). And 2008 was the elusive ice storm. Sooooo, yeah I'm still right. k? In Feb 16 we had a small area of complete paste in NE CT with 8 inches of snow, the damage to trees was unreal and yes the power outages were extensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Ok, well 2011 was full leafs on trees, and people out this way didn't lose much power (so i heard, I lived in Natick at the time). And 2008 was the elusive ice storm. Sooooo, yeah I'm still right. k? Not really. Wet snow will take down anything. I have had a bunch of wet snow events in my areas since 2010 and Nemo brought multi-day outages with the wind and snow combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Ok, well 2011 was full leafs on trees, and people out this way didn't lose much power (so i heard, I lived in Natick at the time). And 2008 was the elusive ice storm. Sooooo, yeah I'm still right. k? Thanksgiving a few years ago was a mess here. Dec 96 S NH was wrecked by paste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Ok, well 2011 was full leafs on trees, and people out this way didn't lose much power (so i heard, I lived in Natick at the time). And 2008 was the elusive ice storm. Sooooo, yeah I'm still right. k? W MA and CT had massive power issues in 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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