CT Rain Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: The sensor and study was based off flat surface accretion, which obviously doesn't have the same runoff issues. So they correlated it to radial accretion because that's what we measure. Ah that makes sense. I see the I group from ASOS make it in all the LSRs around here so it looks like there's a bunch of different measurement techniques going in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Given the crappy front end and change to sleet that appears very likely within hours and the real snow maybe 3 to noon. I would be absolutely thrilled with 8" Ive liked 6-12 for the last 24hrs in LWM but id be satisfied with 6-8" of mashed potatoes here from 3-4 am to 11 Very light snow currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Will could you please post the current dual pol radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 GFS goes apesh*t in ern ma tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will could you please post the current dual pol radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Hammering sleet now, good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Ah that makes sense. I see the I group from ASOS make it in all the LSRs around here so it looks like there's a bunch of different measurement techniques going in there. I mean technically speaking, I don't think we differentiate what is being measured when we report ice accretion. And that study suggests that it really shouldn't be radial, since ice rarely perfectly accumulates around a cylindrical object. What about all those icicles that hang off? They add to the weight but aren't counted. I know I typically like to see the automated sensors approach a third of an inch (so radial is around 0.10") before we start getting serious impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, OceanStWx said: I mean technically speaking, I don't think we differentiate what is being measured when we report ice accretion. And that study suggests that it really shouldn't be radial, since ice rarely perfectly accumulates around a cylindrical object. What about all those icicles that hang off? They add to the weight but aren't counted. I know I typically like to see the automated sensors approach a third of an inch (so radial is around 0.10") before we start getting serious impacts. Is WSW criteria of 0.5" really 0.5" of radial accretion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 20z HRRR consistently hits EMA hard between 0z-2z tonight... should be some nice snowfall rates if that holds up, verbatim maybe enough to stick at least 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Man that sleet line is just hammering NE. Didn't think we'd come close til after 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: 20z HRRR consistently hits EMA hard between 0z-2z tonight... should be some nice snowfall rates if that holds up, verbatim maybe enough to stick at least 1"? I'm skeptical of the dynamic flip to snow this evening, but it will be something to watch. The warm layers even on the ugly NAM really aren't that thick...it's like this intense thin band located near 850mb. So we'll have to see if some of this gets washed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Is WSW criteria of 0.5" really 0.5" of radial accretion? That's what I mean, I think technically it's 0.5" of non-specific ice accretion. We don't define it, and we don't define our reports either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That's what I mean, I think technically it's 0.5" of non-specific ice accretion. We don't define it, and we don't define our reports either. 0.5" of radial... i.e. 0.5" on both sides of a branch is a sh*t ton of ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 hour ago, wxsniss said: Ahhhh busy Friday at work FTL for following disco / guidance... Lots to catch up on. I posted yesterday early thoughts of Boston 3-6" and mostly from CCB, have no idea how that's trended and won't opine until I review stuff. Replies to my prior posts early this morning: Ray: excellent FINAL map. For Boston (sorry for mby focus... it's the climo I have most experience with), 4-8" is very reasonable. Definite +bust potential if CCB trends more robust. It all comes down to the 6am-1p-ish period and how quickly we can wash out the junk warmth that comes in tonight, and if the mature system lingers a bit more Saturday. Same for northeast MA where 14" might bust low along MA/NH border into northeast MA if CCB really goes to town. Iceberg: I know you're "just" a hobbyist as am I, but you have sure stepped up your game this season with great posts. I amended last minute to 8-12 Boston...potentually less right at shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm skeptical of the dynamic flip to snow this evening, but it will be something to watch. The warm layers even on the ugly NAM really aren't that thick...it's like this intense thin band located near 850mb. So we'll have to see if some of this gets washed out. It'll definitely be close. 20z HRRR (and GFS) is frozen the entire column 0z-2z... NAM kisses > 0C 800-850mb... it will be an interesting early litmus of the NAM soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: 0.5" of radial... i.e. 0.5" on both sides of a branch is a sh*t ton of ice! Oh I see what you're saying, yeah that would be. In that case it would be 0.25" on each side of the branch. 0.5" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm skeptical of the dynamic flip to snow this evening, but it will be something to watch. The warm layers even on the ugly NAM really aren't that thick...it's like this intense thin band located near 850mb. So we'll have to see if some of this gets washed out. Go hard and heavy...Im feeling tmw AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, wxsniss said: It'll definitely be close. 20z HRRR (and GFS) is frozen the entire column 0z-2z... NAM kisses > 0C 800-850mb... it will be an interesting early litmus of the NAM soundings Latest RAP re-cools the BOS column too...it has sleet but then back to snow around 7-8pm and then it snows for about 3-4 hours before re-flipping back to sleet/rain around 12-1am. I'm still skeptical of this but it will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: 0.5" of radial... i.e. 0.5" on both sides of a branch is a sh*t ton of ice! See I always thought that was how you measure ice? Isn't it maximum radius off the branch or object? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 nteresting that the NWS seems to be quite a bit higher (as well as Ray) with snow totals in Northern MA and NH than Mets on air that I saw. max I saw on fox 25 and WMUR were 6-10". are they underselling the heavy stuff tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 GFS is too cold already. Sleet into BOS area now and the soundings don't even show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 43 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: ASOS says straight FZRA there now. 0.04" on the FZRA sensor so far (I think the general rule of thumb is take about a third of that value for the radial accretion). Just about!!! I forgot who derived it, but radial ice accumulation is equal to 'ice thickness' multiplied by '0.394.' The FRAM SM, in particular, uses the conversion to go from ice thickness over to radial ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Go hard and heavy...Im feeling tmw AM. I'd ease off the gas . Sleet has gotten much farther north than thought . Maybe it's temporary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS goes apesh*t in ern ma tomorrow morning. Look at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: See I always thought that was how you measure ice? Isn't it maximum radius off the branch or object? Sorry, yes. I misspoke. You measure everything (minus the cylindrical object) and divide by two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'd ease off the gas . Sleet has gotten much farther north than thought . Maybe it's temporary Nah, this was always warm. I was wrong about the slush, but solid on the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Sorry, yes. I misspoke. You measure everything (minus the cylindrical object) and divide by two. It'd be nice if there was a universal "snowboard" to measure ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'd ease off the gas . Sleet has gotten much farther north than thought . Maybe it's temporary I don't think it means much for tmw...not much is expexted tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 This may be a good pelt fest overnight for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, MegaMike said: It'd be nice if there was a universal "snowboard" to measure ice accumulation. Once I really dug into that study I realized how all over the place ice measurements are. We'll accept 0.5" radial on a wire, but also on your deck or car. But 0.5" on a car only correlates to about 0.15" on a wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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