sankaty Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 The warmer mesos (RGEM and NAM) show sleet overnight through much of the central Greens in the Killington/Okemo area but snow in the CT River Valley just to the south east. It also shows snow due west in the lower elevations of NY. This seems to be very counter to climo. Should I disregard this, or is it likely it will be sleeting on Killington Peak while it's snowing in both Springfield, VT, and Glens Falls? What would be the mechanism for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, DomNH said: No wx station. Wunderground station across the street has 35.1/30 Nashua? You should wetbulb around freezing and see it begin accumulating early this afternoon when the heavier precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Radar seems to be gradually filling in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Oh, nice stall on the rgem there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Nashua? You should wetbulb around freezing and see it begin accumulating early this afternoon when the heavier precip moves in. Yep. Going to need +SN or darkness to accumulate much, whichever comes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: A car roof is going to accumulate better than the ground. Yes, yes it will and there is a lot less than that on my car roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, DomNH said: Yep. Going to need +SN or darkness to accumulate much, whichever comes first. +SN first, for sure. Sunset isn't til after 7 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Oh, nice stall on the rgem there lol. RGEM is always the slowest model....weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 18 minutes ago, jbenedet said: What's your temp? Td? temp now 35F. wind 5mph, temp was 39F two hours ago for nashua Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: +SN first, for sure. Sunset isn't til after 7 now. Not confident we rip those rates til tonight or after midnight. Even 1/2sm snow probably isn't going to cut it in lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 The RGEM is pretty sweet towards LWM. Then it really cranks in ern areas tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The RGEM is pretty sweet towards LWM. Then it really cranks in ern areas tomorrow. How about further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: How about further west? I think you ping later, but at least you have latitude. As erly flow develops 85-800 you'll cool off before dawn and should have a snowy morning for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Thats actually a pretty big improvement in the mid level cooling from previous runs. Hints at a pretty dynamic ccb and I am not sure it is finished doing so. The weenie in me thinks nw ct into orh to ne ma can go nuts tomorrow under it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 And the gfs follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Gfs is so close here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Hopefully that ccb gets CT as well. Maybe a few hours anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 This is turning into a sleet ice tonight then pound cakes tomorrow on top for many to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Well definitely a noticeable change in the mid level lows in that they are further north compared to what the GFS had yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 A Pivotal Kuch map...because the weenies love em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone have the 12z RGEM clown? Here's snow equivalent QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 RGEM p-types... Snow. Sleet. Freezing rain. Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well definitely a noticeable change in the mid level lows in that they are further north compared to what the GFS had yesterday. hrrr is really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, educate said: hrrr is really cold. It's gotten colder almost every run...kind of weird. Not sure I buy it, but it would be a game-changer for pike region tonight as it would have a lot of accumulating snow this evening in the strongest part of the WCB as it starts transitioning to a CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Thanks PF, I love that rain jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 HRRR would be 2-4" of sleet here. I think it's too cold Rap is similar but even colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: HRRR would be 2-4" of sleet here. I think it's too cold Rap is similar but even colder Yeah I'm pretty sure HRRR is too cold...but every piece of guidance at 12z has trended colder. So I think the trend is real...what we have to figure out is what was the true baseline. Did we just trend from 2 inches of slop on the pike to 5-6" or did we just trend from 4-6" to 10"? We don't know...because despite all models trending colder, their absolute solutions are still differing. NAM is still pretty awful for snow while something like the HRRR would probably give me 15"+ once you account for the CCB snows tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's gotten colder almost every run...kind of weird. Not sure I buy it, but it would be a game-changer for pike region tonight as it would have a lot of accumulating snow this evening in the strongest part of the WCB as it starts transitioning to a CCB. Check out that surface high position on the HRRR. Doesn't get much better than that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 The balls for me, the shaft for CoastalWX...but the map isn't right obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: The balls for me, the shaft for CoastalWX...but the map isn't right obviously. There's people you can talk to for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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