40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Appreciate the quality analysis along with humility you and Will, Iceberg, S of Pike and a few others are showing here... There was a lot of chest thumping going on last night that was over-confident and may turn out to be incorrect. Who chest-thumped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For this afternoon? I don't see a big deal unless it's a peltfest. I think the precip won't be all that heavy, but sleet disrupts operations. Logan is one of, if not the best in the country to handle snow. If there is one place you need to fly out of in winter wx...it's Logan. They know what they're doing. Good to know regarding Logan's cleanup crew. To be more specific, it's closer to evening, but I'm seeing pretty solid agreement on guidance that heavy frozen precip moves into Boston by 5 p.m. I'd be pretty shocked if there aren't significant delays and/or cancellations by that point....but that's just a guess obviously.... Should make for a hellish evening commute out of Boston metro as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If I look at the big picture....so you look at placement of HP, low track and movement, 850,700, 500 lows etc....if I do that...it's a great argument for snows. Basically everything March 14 did not have on the coast. But then you dig deeper and see this sneaky, shallow warm layer. If I were to use the earlier reasons I stated to sway towards snow....I would say that those reasons are good ones to hedge snowier. However, given the subtle change in those 850-800 temps on guidance...it's definitely a reason to pause and think about it. If Logan got 1" or 8"...I honestly wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless I see guidance cool...tough for me to be bullish....but it's normally a reason to lean bullish given those tracks. Go figure. I am not confident at all.....9/10 times, first call would look great, but this maybe a clinic in Will's rule that meteorology always finds a way to humble.......really contemplating things. Climo says go heavy here, but I hate relaying on last-minute, hail mary CCB in a marginal airmass...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If I look at the big picture....so you look at placement of HP, low track and movement, 850,700, 500 lows etc....if I do that...it's a great argument for snows. Basically everything March 14 did not have on the coast. But then you dig deeper and see this sneaky, shallow warm layer. If I were to use the earlier reasons I stated to sway towards snow....I would say that those reasons are good ones to hedge snowier. However, given the subtle change in those 850-800 temps on guidance...it's definitely a reason to pause and think about it. If Logan got 1" or 8"...I honestly wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless I see guidance cool...tough for me to be bullish....but it's normally a reason to lean bullish given those tracks. Go figure. Any ideas as to what is the source/root cause of that warm layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am not confident at all.....9/10 times, first call would look great, but this maybe a clinic in Will's rule that meteorology always finds a way to humble.......really contemplating things. Climo says go heavy here, but I hate relaying on last-minute, hail mary CCB in a marginal airmass...ugh That's how I feel. Of course I'm the one who needs to decide weather the business I work at stays open all day/tomorrow. It's in Burlington so I'm leaning to just closing tomorrow but we'll see, not an easy one to forecast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: If I look at the big picture....so you look at placement of HP, low track and movement, 850,700, 500 lows etc....if I do that...it's a great argument for snows. Basically everything March 14 did not have on the coast. But then you dig deeper and see this sneaky, shallow warm layer. If I were to use the earlier reasons I stated to sway towards snow....I would say that those reasons are good ones to hedge snowier. However, given the subtle change in those 850-800 temps on guidance...it's definitely a reason to pause and think about it. If Logan got 1" or 8"...I honestly wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless I see guidance cool...tough for me to be bullish....but it's normally a reason to lean bullish given those tracks. Go figure. Thats what has been confusing me, it looks perfect wrt upper level movement then I look at surface and it puzzles me. Im starting to dig deeper at the mid level warming, soundings, etc but just not there yet. Im in the thought now though around the ct border through ma and on east, it will come down to like 1-2 degree when the ccb gets going...micro anlyzing each run today will just bleed my eyeballs at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am not confident at all.....9/10 times, first call would look great, but this maybe a clinic in Will's rule that meteorology always finds a way to humble.......really contemplating things. Climo says go heavy here, but I hate relaying on last-minute, hail mary CCB in a marginal airmass...ugh well looking at HRRR doesn't seem its just CCB for you Ray, take a look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am not confident at all.....9/10 times, first call would look great, but this maybe a clinic in Will's rule that meteorology always finds a way to humble.......really contemplating things. Climo says go heavy here, but I hate relaying on last-minute, hail mary CCB in a marginal airmass...ugh The annoying thing is how cold it is at 925-950mb. Just a phenomenal look in the low levels for an April 1 storm only to have it tainted by H8. I'm not confident either in how far the sleet line moves north/how long it stays there. The setup would argue that it gets to Rt. 2 at most and retreats from there quickly, and there are a lot of models that do that, but it's still persistent and pesky. Guess there isn't much to do other than wait and see what the dual pol trends look like later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Does anyone want to start and obs thread ? for this - it's snowing here in NW Middlesex co along rt 2. Lightly, with well formed flitting aggregates that might be growing under the warm layer - if that is even factorable still/this early in the game. Not sure on either, heh. too many moving parts in this thing and I have a day job. But, area DPs are still sufficient that given some depths in the 1300' and 850 to surface thickness intervals, we can wetbulb further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Does anyone want to start and obs thread ? for this - it's snowing here in NW Middlesex co along rt 2. Lightly, with well formed flitting aggregates that might growing under the warm layer - if that is even factorable still/this early in the game. Not sure on either, heh. too many moving parts in this thing and I have a day job. But, area DPs are still sufficient that given some depths in the 1300' and 850 to surface thickness intervals, we can wetbulb further. LOl there is one already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I think S VT will be fine. Hopefully the NAM/RGEM are too warm because it does get ugly at Mitch's plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I kind of figured the early onset panic would set in as will predicted yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 hours ago, nzucker said: If the RGEM verifies won't be so many chuckles. RGEM/NAM warm/west consensus is hard to ignore. Really difficult to discount considering how well that blend worked in 3/14. RGEM has been pretty good at seeing how tucked in these can get. This, And yes, The GFS blew chunks in the 3/14 event and probably will again here, Mesos against the Globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 45 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Guidance has heavy snow moving into Boston by early afternoon. Going to be interesting nowcast, to say the least... Rates --lack of visibility and ability to keep up with the cleaning--are going to cause significant delays at Logan this afternoon I think... its spotty all day, Logan should be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: well looking at HRRR doesn't seem its just CCB for you Ray, take a look Not just HRRR. E MA gets thumped good this evening to midnight. The real issue is seeing what happens after that, particularly closer to Boston. Right now in Boston, looks like a thump- 2-4" sleet/snow through midnight then flip to mix rain and then finish with several hours of snow on the backend 1-3". In my opinion biggest wintry impacts will be first half for Boston metro, due to rates, and timing. Total 3-7", but the first half will largely be washed away by end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, qg_omega said: its spotty all day, Logan should be fine Not seeing "spotty" precip field in evening hours...we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 27 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I kind of figured the early onset panic would set in as will predicted yesterday. I'm not panicking....but I think you always have to maintain an open mind because I think that you would agree this science is indeed humbling. You are great about always looking to learn, and that is a trait that you need to have in this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not panicking....but I think you always have to maintain an open mind because I think that you would agree this science is indeed humbling. You are great about always looking to learn, and that is a trait that you need to have in this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Life, really...you aren't learning, you're declining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 42 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Any ideas as to what is the source/root cause of that warm layer? I mentioned earlier it's the srly flow ahead of this thing. As the mid levels close it helps to wrap it in. We eventually shut off the WAA and cool, but that's pretty much the story. Most winter events start off with srly flow at 850-800 anyways, but given time mid year and antecedent airmass...we run into this problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 NAM is still a toaster bath if not worse. We'll have to wait and see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, DomNH said: NAM is still a toaster bath if not worse. We'll have to wait and see I guess. looks colder actually for my area, trying to keep me all snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Looking at that 800mb plot that Brian posted I am right at 0F. Think I am okay with all snow but seems like the heavies QPF stays south.... Brian, what are you thinking for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 12z rpm looks great for bos and esp a couple miles west and north. Quite the gradient to almost nothing towards brockton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: looks colder actually for my area, trying to keep me all snow now Looks colder overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 What a PITA season this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Not that I'm a huge fan of using it, but I'd kind of expect the RPM to be lock step with the NAM in torching us vs. being ice cold. It's interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Nam and rpm are pretty nice tomorrow morning in ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Temps been dropping . Down to 32.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 nam is very good, colder. looks to get the ccb going for king weenieville bos too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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