DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Its really not whether this tucks in or not though. All about the waa push from the primary and how quickly mid levels can cool afterwards when the coastal gets going. This. And I don't agree with models that don't begin a quick and robust cooling trend in the mid-levels once they redevelop south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, DomNH said: Lol RGEM chucks them high and far for the areas I just mentioned. I just don't think those areas have much to be worried about. I can see a lot of sleet getting into S NH tonight. We'll see. The CCB should be really good in that area so I think it would flip back pretty quick but I can see this being pretty mundane for the first half. The precip rates aren't that great until we start getting the CCB involved. It could be the type of thing where 8 hours of snow nets you 2 inches of slop by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah they aren't that far west. It's all about that midlevel warm layer. They are just more aggressive wth it. coming due west to east, the ull goes underneath LI which is sweet for the interior but the stubborness of the warm layers from the primary has me concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I can see a lot of sleet getting into S NH tonight. We'll see. The CCB should be really good in that area so I think it would flip back pretty quick but I can see this being pretty mundane for the first half. The precip rates aren't that great until we start getting the CCB involved. It could be the type of thing where 8 hours of snow nets you 2 inches of slop by midnight. That sounds exciting...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 That warm layer is annoying. Even the GFS gets sneaky warm in SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 This storm is confusing. I have no idea what to expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I can see a lot of sleet getting into S NH tonight. We'll see. The CCB should be really good in that area so I think it would flip back pretty quick but I can see this being pretty mundane for the first half. The precip rates aren't that great until we start getting the CCB involved. It could be the type of thing where 8 hours of snow nets you 2 inches of slop by midnight. Yeah I wouldn't rule it out especially if we have meh lift for a while but I'm not confident in it either. Not sure it makes a ton of difference either way unless you're expecting 12''+. I don't think we'll have any issue with getting most of a 5-10'' range tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 HRRR is PLSN fest after midnight just south of the pike. The warm tongue is at 800mb. That's unusual giving the mid level tracks, but I think the warmer air is getting wrapped in despite the mid levels going under SNE. Basically taking the warmth and then wrapping it in before winds turn east and then cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 It's also like -5C at 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's also like -5C at 900mb. Do we think it still flips back Saturday am to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, RI Rob said: Do we think it still flips back Saturday am to snow? Well I think it will at some point, but the issue is accumulation. Are the mid levels tained to the point where it takes all morning to flip and then we get a coating of slush...or is the warming marginal enough so that when the big lift comes in, we pound paste? That's the question. I'm never a huge fan of relying on dynamics for snow in this case....but it's a tough call. I'm still thinking we stay conservative for snow at Logan. But, if the airmass is 1F cooler...that could mean the difference of 1" or 6". Really tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR is PLSN fest after midnight just south of the pike. The warm tongue is at 800mb. That's unusual giving the mid level tracks, but I think the warmer air is getting wrapped in despite the mid levels going under SNE. Basically taking the warmth and then wrapping it in before winds turn east and then cool off. This is pretty sweet for you Mass guys as the LP is still way down near the Delmarva. Going to be a pretty wild night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 NWS bumped us into the 8-12 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Inches and inches of sleet incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Beware of the warm wet tongue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This is pretty sweet for you Mass guys as the LP is still way down near the Delmarva. Going to be a pretty wild night I hope this is close to verifying. I postponed my trip largely because of my flight time of 8:40 pm out of Logan and anticipating massive delays/cancellations through tomorrow morning. Also figured it would be a good weekend to hit the slopes rather than the beaches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Beware of the warm wet tongue. That's what she said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Beware of the warm wet tongue. Better than a dry one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Beware of the warm wet tongue. Yup, it can lick you in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Not quite heavy, but really good moderate snow with big fatties. I just drove up from Greenfield--my car was reading 36* and rn-/sn- mix at the rotary. 30.9* here at the Pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well I think it will at some point, but the issue is accumulation. Are the mid levels tained to the point where it takes all morning to flip and then we get a coating of slush...or is the warming marginal enough so that when the big lift comes in, we pound paste? That's the question. I'm never a huge fan of relying on dynamics for snow in this case....but it's a tough call. I'm still thinking we stay conservative for snow at Logan. But, if the airmass is 1F cooler...that could mean the difference of 1" or 6". Really tough. Yea. That was my concern yesterday. If you warm from the surface up to 800 ish, that's going to take time to cool and mix out to the point that it doesn't greatly hinder ratios. How much precip falling as snow is "lost"? Tough question to answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yup, it can lick you in the end. This storm is gonna suck for many in this Forum S of the Pike I feel. W MA and CT Hills should do ok but wagons N on this. N ORH county up into SNH and W into VT will be prime spots. NE MA is a wildcard to me given general proximity to the ocean but I do think they see a solid storm. I'm looking forward to the rains. We really need to replenish the reservoirs and ground water and this pattern is looking like it will deliver over the next 10-14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Yea. That was my concern yesterday. If you warm from the surface up to 800 ish, that's going to take time to cool and mix out to the point that it doesn't greatly hinder ratios. The warmth is marginal which makes it tough. If it was a large area at 3C then forget it. But if you have a narrow area hugging 0.2C...it can be washed out. Tough to really say, but I think overnight won't do a whole lot in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhaela Houston Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Typical late season mess just to push the Ones Who Can't Take It Anymore to Florida.... to experience weather like hurricanes.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The warmth is marginal which makes it tough. If it was a large area at 3C then forget it. But if you have a narrow area hugging 0.2C...it can be washed out. Tough to really say, but I think overnight won't do a whole lot in the city. Guidance has heavy snow moving into Boston by early afternoon. Going to be interesting nowcast, to say the least... Rates --lack of visibility and ability to keep up with the cleaning--are going to cause significant delays at Logan this afternoon I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Guidance has heavy snow moving into Boston by early afternoon. Going to be interesting nowcast, to say the least... Rates --lack of visibility and ability to keep up with the cleaning--are going to cause significant delays at Logan this afternoon I think... For this afternoon? I don't see a big deal unless it's a peltfest. I think the precip won't be all that heavy, but sleet disrupts operations. Logan is one of, if not the best in the country to handle snow. If there is one place you need to fly out of in winter wx...it's Logan. They know what they're doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: For this afternoon? I don't see a big deal unless it's a peltfest. I think the precip won't be all that heavy, but sleet disrupts operations. Logan is one of, if not the best in the country to handle snow. If there is one place you need to fly out of in winter wx...it's Logan. They know what they're doing. Just landed at Logan. Looks like they are prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Well I think it will at some point, but the issue is accumulation. Are the mid levels tained to the point where it takes all morning to flip and then we get a coating of slush...or is the warming marginal enough so that when the big lift comes in, we pound paste? That's the question. I'm never a huge fan of relying on dynamics for snow in this case....but it's a tough call. I'm still thinking we stay conservative for snow at Logan. But, if the airmass is 1F cooler...that could mean the difference of 1" or 6". Really tough. Appreciate the quality analysis along with humility you and Will, Iceberg, S of Pike and a few others are showing here... There was a lot of chest thumping going on last night that was over-confident and may turn out to be incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Appreciate the quality analysis along with humility you and Will, Iceberg, S of Pike and a few others are showing here... There was a lot of chest thumping going on last night that was over-confident and may turn out to be incorrect. Thats kind. those guys are great and on their own tier, so I dont belong in the same sentence though. I just virtually pick their brains when I can...I kinda feel like an internet thief at times ha. I always enjoy your analysis, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 If I look at the big picture....so you look at placement of HP, low track and movement, 850,700, 500 lows etc....if I do that...it's a great argument for snows. Basically everything March 14 did not have on the coast. But then you dig deeper and see this sneaky, shallow warm layer. If I were to use the earlier reasons I stated to sway towards snow....I would say that those reasons are good ones to hedge snowier. However, given the subtle change in those 850-800 temps on guidance...it's definitely a reason to pause and think about it. If Logan got 1" or 8"...I honestly wouldn't be shocked either way. Unless I see guidance cool...tough for me to be bullish....but it's normally a reason to lean bullish given those tracks. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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