DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 We simply aren't pinging to Lake Champlain with an 850 mb low center going south of Long Island. That's a POS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Are all of the models overdoing qpf on this system? I know the dynamics are still coming together but national radar and water vapor don't seem that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Are all of the models overdoing qpf on this system? I know the dynamics are still coming together but national radar and water vapor don't seem that impressive. I'm always skeptical of widespread 2"+ amounts unless there is a really good reason for them. Doesn't mean there won't be pockets of big QPF, but usually I play it more conservative. I'd kind of assume something in the 1-1.4 range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 It's also on an island wrt being so late to develop the 700mb low while you have a stacked system at 500mb and 850mb ripping through the Atlantic south of Long Island. Into the garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Are all of the models overdoing qpf on this system? I know the dynamics are still coming together but national radar and water vapor don't seem that impressive. I usually take the 2/3 to 3/4 approach around here unless I see something in the dynamics, mid levels etc., that leads me to believe the models are underestimating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm always skeptical of widespread 2"+ amounts unless there is a really good reason for them. Doesn't mean there won't be pockets of big QPF, but usually I play it more conservative. I'd kind of assume something in the 1-1.4 range right now. After all was said and done last time the only areas overdone during the blizzard were NE Mass. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Jerry will like the new RPM though. Inquiring minds,,.,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Not much talk about the uk around these parts, usually those maps fly up when bos is under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: After all was said and done last time the only areas overdone during the blizzard were NE Mass. We will see I'd say central MA was overdone too and a chunk of RI. CT was generally fine, but you often get better QPF near the low level warm front which was more pronounced down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 UK must still suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: Inquiring minds,,.,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: UK must still suck Too early for Ukie. We can get a peak to 36h though in about 30-40 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Thanks Will! Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 25 minutes ago, weathafella said: Thanks Will! Stay the course. Cue Garth with a commodore 64 graphics comment. Actually Tandy Andy made the RPM in his basement about the same time he designed the BTV WRF graphics, speaking of which what's the BTV have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lunenburg would be pa-rouwd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 There are similarities to an event around opening day 1972. I was at opening day-we had about it 4 inches that night. Yankees lost to Red Sox 2-1 but I was sitting behind the plate with the wind in my face and Horace Clarke was safe with the tying run despite being called out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I feel like in this event, the front end could disappoint while the CCB portion could be good if I have to pick a spot for expectation busts to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: There are similarities to an event around opening day 1972. I was at opening day-we had about it 4 inches that night. Yankees lost to Red Sox 2-1 but I was sitting behind the plate with the wind in my face and Horace Clarke was safe with the tying run despite being called out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Prefect color scheme. TT and WXbell can use some advise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Doesn't look like we're getting much help from the RGEM this run. It looks a hair warmer early on but it's def better with the CCB early Saturday...looks like it's going to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I hope we dont start pinning all hopes on a last minute CCB in a marginal airmass... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 RGEM actually looks a hair colder to me than 18z through 33. Yeah, that's a colder run than 18z. Certainly looks nothing like the NAM. Fairly similar to the Euro thermally as far as I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, DomNH said: RGEM actually looks a hair colder to me than 18z through 33. It was really choppy in terms of when it looked colder/warmer...that really tells me it didn't change too much and we're looking at timing noise. The one feature it did have a notable change on for our general region was the CCB...it was def more robust on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel like in this event, the front end could disappoint while the CCB portion could be good if I have to pick a spot for expectation busts to occur. That would certainly favor N ORH Co to Ray and S NH. I'm pretty comfortable with 4-6" here 8" up at MPM's place with much less S of Franklin Co. Dave to Ray seem like the possible 10"+ zones. That area up to Exeter NH could actually be better than Mobadnock region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, Amped said: Prefect color scheme. TT and WXbell can use some advise. Up all night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 There's a coastal flood component to watch too, not that anyone cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Nice run on the 0z RGEM, But i'm skeptical, Looks to jack PSM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It was really choppy in terms of when it looked colder/warmer...that really tells me it didn't change too much and we're looking at timing noise. The one feature it did have a notable change on for our general region was the CCB...it was def more robust on Saturday. Yeah not Earth shattering but definitely a touch colder in this area down to Route 2 and maybe a little south of Route 2. Actually closes off the H7 low a little later than the 18z but definitely a better look there than the NAM. That RGEM run makes me fairly confident that we can chuck the NAM as hard as we possibly can into the nearest dumpster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 GFS caves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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