Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It's hard to get a powder storm this time of year. But April 2016 proved the exception it is ... i was just commenting on this in the other thread, that we're good to go for snow in general (though obviously with dwindling probability to do so) until quite late, but... in the absence of the deeper, fresher cold these late blueberries tend to be elevation dependent. Not sure this thing is of that April 2005, or April 2016 ilk.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 rgem at the end of its range looks decent for nct on north. much colder at the onset than the mam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Not that anyone cares but I've got an eye on it. Every 20 years (approximately) we have a late season bomb. 1956 1977 (May) 1997 2017 i hope it happens because 2037 is no guarantee for me to say the least....lol. Heh, honestly... not that you asked but this isn't a bomb - though it may snow prodigiously ... Particularly, I could see 850' hills of N. Worc. Co cashing in with pine trees caked shut like dormant parasols. But lower els need work from the models and ...well, reality. I think the "bomb" signal might be the late middle/early extended range actually - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottGridley Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Long time lurker, first time poster...thanks for the great discussion here guys. Much more pleasant than some alternatives. I'm at about 1000' MSL in Rutland, MA - while the south-facing slopes have thawed, there's still a decent snow pack in the shadows, in areas that drifted after the last storm, and certainly in the woods. Any thoughts on temperature effects with this system due to existing snowpack? Thanks! sg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Yeah this NAM run gets that initial forcing on Fri morning into CNE rather than CT. This run is all snow here and a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 What's the timing for this? Late Friday-All Saturday? More of a Friday set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah this NAM run gets that initial forcing on Fri morning into CNE rather than CT. This run is all snow here and a lot of it. A real lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, RI Rob said: What's the timing for this? Late Friday-All Saturday? More of a Friday set up? early Fri into evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 48 minutes ago, dryslot said: lol at the 12z NAM well... laugh all you want, it's not an impossible result. Eventually, it won't snow anymore and/or the snow expectation should naturally shift N with the ensuing seasonal change... I know that you're seeing Mets posting these terse trash comments about the NAM; though they may very well be proven right, they would be wrong to suggest those solutions are off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: well... laugh all you want, it's not an impossible result. Eventually, it won't snow anymore and/or the snow expectation should naturally shift N with the ensuing seasonal change... I know that you're seeing Mets posting these terse trash comments about the NAM; though they may very well be proven right, they would be wrong to suggest those solutions are off the table. I do see more of a wide swing in the NAM for this. Compare the last few runs... yesterday it was dumping in S CT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 11 minutes ago, ScottGridley said: Long time lurker, first time poster...thanks for the great discussion here guys. Much more pleasant than some alternatives. I'm at about 1000' MSL in Rutland, MA - while the south-facing slopes have thawed, there's still a decent snow pack in the shadows, in areas that drifted after the last storm, and certainly in the woods. Any thoughts on temperature effects with this system due to existing snowpack? Thanks! sg I would think minimal... A bit right at the surface, but it doesn't affect it much above that this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well... laugh all you want, it's not an impossible result. Eventually, it won't snow anymore and/or the snow expectation should naturally shift N with the ensuing seasonal change... I know that you're seeing Mets posting these terse trash comments about the NAM; though they may very well be proven right, they would be wrong to suggest those solutions are off the table. No its not impossible, But just can't take the Nam serious yet, Its inline with the 0z Euro somewhat as far as the amount of qpf albeit the nam is a little overdone then the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 48 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 850-925 is cold, sure. But on the coastal plain your constantly replacing that mid-level to surface thermodynamic cooling by that 40F fetch off the Atlantic. Sun or not I think the BL in the coastal plain is too warm for a notable wintry impact. I'll buy this event in the interior cp of ne MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well... laugh all you want, it's not an impossible result. Eventually, it won't snow anymore and/or the snow expectation should naturally shift N with the ensuing seasonal change... I know that you're seeing Mets posting these terse trash comments about the NAM; though they may very well be proven right, they would be wrong to suggest those solutions are off the table. I think people were more laughing at the big swings in it's runs. No, of course it's not an impossible result...and neither was yesterdays big dump in CT. All solutions are still on the table as you eluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perlstyle Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 April Fools Day storm 1997. I lived in Woburn. Late in the evening, my roommate noticed the tarp on his motorcycle had gotten loose. So we headed out there to try and get things fixed. The maintenance guy came over to help us. At the time, there was a good 10" new snow and it was coming down like gangbusters, sideways, 2-4" rates. The maintenance guy says to us, "Dudes, I think we're gonna get a blizzid tonight!" And we were like, no sh*t sherlock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 RGEM out through 84 hours snowfall totals precip. Congrats Dendrite. Its ice p-type has like almost an inch of QPF as ice near and just south of ORH and in the Litchfield hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Better RGEM clown map....this is really bad that we're posting these BTW...I mean, it doesn't get much worse than the 84 hour RGEM. Maybe the NAM is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 GFS looks a little colder than 06z through 60 hours...but it's pretty close overall. Maybe a touch less northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Better RGEM clown map....this is really bad that we're posting these BTW...I mean, it doesn't get much worse than the 84 hour RGEM. Maybe the NAM is worse. I'd rather the RGEM than the NAM though for whatever reason. Mind sharing the link to the more zoomed in one? I could only find the "North American" view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 RGEM liking Boston-ORH on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 wow gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'd rather the RGEM than the NAM though for whatever reason. Mind sharing the link to the more zoomed in one? I could only find the "North American" view. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/precipitation-accumulation.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=00&mod=gemreg&hi=000&hf=120&type=PR&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&capa_verif=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: wow gfs The Rev needs to put his eggs in that basket, as much as it pains him to go with the GFS ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I'd rather the RGEM than the NAM though for whatever reason. Mind sharing the link to the more zoomed in one? I could only find the "North American" view. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_12/accum/SN_000-084_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: The Rev needs to put his eggs in that basket, as much as it pains him to go with the GFS :lol:. It's still al ittle warm for him...gets some snow in there, but it's much better north of the MA/CT border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 thats a paste bomb in nct overnight friday, ccb goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The Rev needs to put his eggs in that basket, as much as it pains him to go with the GFS ha. Even further south the then the 06z run, But its the only model that far south so far that i have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Man it got even colder than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It's still al ittle warm for him...gets some snow in there, but it's much better north of the MA/CT border. hmm, thought it looked great nw of 84 and add in elevation, thats snow not rain am i right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: hmm, thought it looked great nw of 84 and add in elevation, thats snow not rain am i right? It's really close, it's like basically 0C in the mid-levels...it looks like maybe some dynamic cooling helps at the very heaviest. If that happened exactly like that, it would probably be a paste job at least for a portion of the storm. But there's def a little more wiggle room once you get up north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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