weathafella Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Like, its good on sniffing trends when comparing its snow maps to each other? Well I was thinking the movement north and south which generally signals warmer or colder. That trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No one knows what happens. No mets , no weenies, no metweenies.. there's not one of us here that can confidently issue a forecast. It's 100% wait and see what happens Only the God knows and he loves his country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 There's so much nervousness , uneasiness, wondering, thinking about what can go wrong/ right. These are the best kind of storms. It's like we're back in the 1930's. Just guessing looking at upper air charts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 GFS MOS is 6 to 8 from Boston To ORH to FIT to North Adam's. Some Mets are going blow this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I've never seen it give the Ct Valley more than advisory snows no matter what month or what set up. It's beyond brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 52 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: I'm thinking 3-6" is a safe middle ground forecast for BOS right now, but I'd be more worried about being low rather than high. Generally I'd say BOX has the right idea with their map and their watches right now - someone in NEMA into NH is going to get smoked though. Going 3-6" for CT hills, 1-3" Hartford north, slush south of there for my forecast tonight. Agree and posted the same. That range includes 6". I do think that's on the conservative side given the trends in guidance today, along with my comments earlier that this setup may favor globals > mesos and is less likely to come northwest compared to the Mar 14 setup. Lots will depend on dynamics Saturday which trended more robust on guidance today. I'd like to see that continue at 0z before going higher. If we don't go wall-to-wall snow/sleet or something like the 18z GFS, defining storm totals with an intermediate rain sloppy mess on Friday afternoon might get tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Upper air charts in the 1930s? That would be a neat trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Well I was thinking the movement north and south which generally signals warmer or colder. That trend. I dont find snow maps that beneficial in depictingwarmer or colder trends. Its the last thing I look at tbh. But I get what youre saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Upper air charts in the 1930s? That would be a neat trick Has your ambiguously famous met friend emailed you his thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Upper air charts in the 1930s? That would be a neat trick They would float up in a zeppelin and whip out their sling psychrometers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Upper air charts in the 1930s? That would be a neat trick Yup . They were there. See 38 cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: They would float up in a zeppelin and whip out their sling psychrometers Actually surprised Tip didn't know that there were radiosondes back then Report of the Chief of the Weather Bureau for 1939 - NOAA https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/wb_reportofthechief/1939.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjlkJqGw__SAhVIYyYKHfo7Ay0QFggqMAI&usg=AFQjCNHDHXlpYs50UyCw6SVbKEKQJTSUDA&sig2=c8UdFMvUMYRZj-BtMj_AFg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I dont find snow maps that beneficial in depictingwarmer or colder trends. Its the last thing I look at tbh. But I get what youre saying. I think they are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Upper air charts in the 1930s? That would be a neat trick I remember using a theodolite in college. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 31, 2017 Author Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Actually surprised Tip didn't know that there were radiosondes back then Report of the Chief of the Weather Bureau for 1939 - NOAA https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/wb_reportofthechief/1939.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjlkJqGw__SAhVIYyYKHfo7Ay0QFggqMAI&usg=AFQjCNHDHXlpYs50UyCw6SVbKEKQJTSUDA&sig2=c8UdFMvUMYRZj-BtMj_AFg Im actually surprised by that...the radiosonde part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Actually surprised Tip didn't know that there were radiosondes back then Report of the Chief of the Weather Bureau for 1939 - NOAA https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/wb_reportofthechief/1939.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjlkJqGw__SAhVIYyYKHfo7Ay0QFggqMAI&usg=AFQjCNHDHXlpYs50UyCw6SVbKEKQJTSUDA&sig2=c8UdFMvUMYRZj-BtMj_AFg http://www.ua.nws.noaa.gov/reqdahdr.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There's so much nervousness , uneasiness, wondering, thinking about what can go wrong/ right. These are the best kind of storms. It's like we're back in the 1930's. Just guessing looking at upper air charts I didn't realize you were that old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think they are Taking the least skilled parameter of a model, the qpf and then putting in some wonk calculation to equate your snow total further decreases the models skill. While flipping through multiple snow maps like a cartoon book, we will see the "trends" but I myself dont want to loose sight of the best way to do so. I guess I should not have said it is not beneficial, just not beneficial for anyone who wants to look under the hood like a good mechanic should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Taking the least skilled parameter of a model, the qpf and then putting in some wonk calculation to equate your snow total further decreases the models skill. While flipping through multiple snow maps like a cartoon book, we will see the "trends" but I myself dont want to loose sight of the best way to do so. I guess I should not have said it is not beneficial, just not beneficial for anyone who wants to look under the hood like a good mechanic should. I only see what someone posts-usually Will. It's all we got-the snow chart and sometimes the total qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, SR Airglow said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Taking the least skilled parameter of a model, the qpf and then putting in some wonk calculation to equate your snow total further decreases the models skill. While flipping through multiple snow maps like a cartoon book, we will see the "trends" but I myself dont want to loose sight of the best way to do so. I guess I should not have said it is not beneficial, just not beneficial for anyone who wants to look under the hood like a good mechanic should. A good mechanic looks over and under the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Another person who doesn't know where Tolland is located Trying to capture the hills and valley yet included Somers as the valley Tolland is due NW of 84 and S Tolland is on 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Please avoid the subject of Connecticut going forward. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Zeus said: Please avoid the subject of Connecticut going forward. Thank you. If it doesn't snow in EMA it didn't snow, we know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: If it doesn't snow in EMA it didn't snow, we know 98% of the talk today has been about BOS. It gets old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: A good mechanic looks over and under the hood. Well, youre a much better mechanic than I am...I'm still trying to figure out how to pop the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Another person who doesn't know where Tolland is located Trying to capture the hills and valley yet included Somers as the valley Tolland is due NW of 84 and S Tolland is on 84 All joking aside, the dynamics in this thing are the elephant in the room...and in a good way. I would say anyone forecasting minimal impact should have Bruce Willis caution flags in the back of their mind...even for your area. It's hard to actually forecast gung ho, but I would be quite uncomfortable. Seeing that bowling ball going right under us is asking for positive bust....but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Well, youre a much better mechanic than I am...I'm still trying to figure out how to pop the hood. I'm a one trick pony ...just sne winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 98% of the talk today has been about BOS. It gets old Wah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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