powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 18z RGEM went way back up on the snow totals...looks like 12z was a blip. It tripled the amount up here from 0.4" to 1.2" between 12z and 18z. More in-line with the ECMWF and NAM up this way. Fascinating storm whatever happens. Fun to have some late season storms to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I remain gung-ho...still like 8-16" here, and 6-12" for KBOS...may not budge from first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remain gung-ho...still like 8-16" here, and 6-12" for KBOS...may not budge from first call. If the NAM's QPF verified... you'd probably half to be snowing 3:1 to get that those totals out of 3" of water ...OT but... the 200 to 240 hour 18Z GFS has a hyper bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 47 minutes ago, qg_omega said: GFS big cut back in precip for the North country Not at all...its pretty close to 12z in precip. It cut back in the Mohawk Valley but at least in BTV's CWA toggling between the 12z and 18z there was very little change. BTV didn't change at all on that run. It looks like the Hudson Valley from ALB to GFL and the CT River Valley from BDL to VSF decreased the most pronounced but it increased moisture in NE VT through NH and ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: If the NAM's QPF verified... you'd probably half to be snowing 3:1 to get that those totals out of 3" of water ...OT but... the 200 to 240 hour 18Z GFS has a hyper bomb I'll take the under on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 In these dynamic fall or spring systems, models can only do so much. They will get the track and redevelopment and hint at where the warm layers lick, but once the fuel kicks in....the shuttle takes off....those on the southern edge esp in elevated terrain in nw and ne ct plus points north will flash over and pile it up. You can look at a snow map up there and meh your 1-3" but no computer simulation can pinpoint every single physics detail like what may transpire, too much back n forth on the soundings Ive looked at for stuff to be that easy to nail. Should be a fun day up north, it will enjoy the fight ringside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NCAR ens are eye opening. I think the worm may be turning south on this biatch. Fascinating to watch this unfold It really won't be the same for me unless you get something Wintory that you really enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I remain gung-ho...still like 8-16" here, and 6-12" for KBOS...may not budge from first call. I agree with your totals there. I like an axis from central VT to central/southern NH to northern and eastern Mass for best snows. Eastern Mass may be the winner in Essex/Middlesex/N.ORH counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I agree with your totals there. I like an axis from central VT to central/southern NH to northern and eastern Mass for best snows. Eastern Mass may be the winner in Essex/Middlesex/N.ORH counties. Been taking a lot of crap from folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Been taking a lot of crap from folks... On here or FB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: On here or FB? FB from DT, and some people at work lol Cant wait to own b*tches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: FB from DT, and some people at work lol Cant wait to own b*tches. crap from DT? thats shocking. And tell the peeps at work to go out fri night and enjoy the roads, run some errands saturday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: crap from DT? thats shocking. And tell the peeps at work to go out fri night and enjoy the roads, run some errands saturday too. DT has zero familiarity with sne climo.....its so evident from the boundaries on many of his maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: FB from DT, and some people at work lol Cant wait to own b*tches. DT just hates when New England gets snow ;). These are the events and set-ups you've been touting on the boards since early Easternwx...late season, low SSTs, and easterly flow bringing the moisture, if there is a time for NE Mass to shine its in these set-ups. You have always been saying that late season is when the marginal events can go big even on the coastal plain of eastern Mass. You also have a SWFE appeal where the last place mid-level warmth will reach in SNE is NE Mass as that southwest flow aloft pushes it from SW to NE. Plenty of positives for NE Mass back to the ORH Hills...and plenty of case studies showing how it can work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: DT just hates when New England gets snow ;). These are the events and set-ups you've been touting on the boards since early Easternwx...late season, low SSTs, and easterly flow bringing the moisture, if there is a time for NE Mass to shine its in these set-ups. You also have a SWFE appeal where the last place mid-level warmth will reach in SNE is NE Mass as that southwest flow aloft pushes it from SW to NE. Plenty of positives for NE Mass back to the ORH Hills...and plenty of case studies showing how it can work out. Oh, man...+100. Great post...I'm almost aroused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Oh, man...+100. Great post...I'm almost aroused. Ha, I feel like this is one of those set-ups you and Will have discussed for years, which is why I personally am pretty bullish there. From reading you guys talk about why late-season events are good in that zone. Climo agrees, more than other SNE areas (no hate to other regions, just going by the past events that can blast the NE coastal plain there almost as well as the hills). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 MAV snow numbers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Ha, I feel like this is one of those set-ups you and Will have discussed for years, which is why I personally am pretty bullish there. From reading you guys talk about why late-season events are good in that zone. Climo agrees, more than other SNE areas (no hate to other regions, just going by the past events that can blast the NE coastal plain there almost as well as the hills). The reason why ne Mass does will in these late season events is because of a combination of lower ssts, latitude and the lack of a downslope element, which is absolutely fatal in late season events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 DT is hands down one of the worst mets I've ever encountered. The guy knows zero..and I mean zero about forecasting NE snowstorms. Whatever he says assume exactly the opposite and you'll walk away a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Anyone have the latest RPM. Did it trend colder like NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Link to the new NCAR you are talking about? I can't seem to find mine. That did not even get the precip very far east on that 0z run last night, Tonight's 0z run should be more telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I like the NAM. N Weymouth FTW. S Weymouth FTL. What's 8-10" between ends of town? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Pete B sticking to 1-2" most of EMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 43 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Not at all...its pretty close to 12z in precip. It cut back in the Mohawk Valley but at least in BTV's CWA toggling between the 12z and 18z there was very little change. BTV didn't change at all on that run. It looks like the Hudson Valley from ALB to GFL and the CT River Valley from BDL to VSF decreased the most pronounced but it increased moisture in NE VT through NH and ME. GFL was 2 inches at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, PeabodyFlood said: Pete B sticking to 1-2" most of EMA. I feel like DT is a good met, but just lacks any semblance of a grasp of NE climo, therefore he sucks here. I think Pete B is an awful met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The reason why ne Mass does will in these late season events is because of a combination of lower ssts, latitude and the lack of a downslope element, which is absolutely fatal in late season events. I feel like this is a bit more longitudinal than usual. The stereotypical event is high elevation and NE MA, but it's possible high spots of CT lose out to coastal Essex county. That's definitely a little more unusual I think. However the benefits of NE MA still are valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, PeabodyFlood said: Pete B sticking to 1-2" most of EMA. Maybe this will be his March 2013 all over. Give the man credit, he went down with the Titanic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Nice to come home and see the RGEM tick colder and the GFS hold serve while getting a little wetter. Time to start chucking 'em for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I feel like this is a bit more longitudinal than usual. The stereotypical event is high elevation and NE MA, but it's possible high spots of CT lose out to coastal Essex county. That's definitely a little more unusual I think. However the benefits of NE MA still are valid. Yes, as PF said, there is a bit of a SWFE element here bc the mid levels wash out and redevelop late....not disputing that, just didn't highlight it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Maybe this will be his March 2013 all over. Give the man credit, he went down with the Titanic. Just thinking the same, exact thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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