powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The Extended HRRR is a complete torch in the low levels tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Seems a little odd that BTV does not even have a WWA for Burlington when they show this: Location At least Likely Potential for >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Burlington, VT 0 3 12 87% 82% 75% 60% 47% 34% 16% 3% I know they are only expecting 3 inches with minimal impacts in the CPV per the discussion but if their products say there is a 47% chance of warning snows verifying you would think a Winter Weater Advisory or a watch would at least be upThere is one up now for 3-5.Sent from my VS987 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Taint, some us know where the term origins, some don't Indeed some do wrt ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Eh, That's what makes it entertaining. Its the terrible algorythym thats stupid and some peeps pump fist or grab a box cutter off the outputs. TT sucks shud be banned, pivotal is much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 RGEM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3:AM on April 1st, 1997. Would love a repeat, but I think if you're very lucky you get one of these in lifetime. I'll settle for plowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Its the terrible algorythym thats stupid and some peeps pump fist or grab a box cutter off the outputs. TT sucks shud be banned, pivotal is much better. Its like giving a baby a pacifier when they cry to some on here, Hey, If it makes them feel better...........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The Extended HRRR is a complete torch in the low levels tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow 4pm. Wow near 50 at btv, what is going on... This threat went to sht Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: RGEM anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: RGEM anyone? colder run, deff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: colder run, deff. Out to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: RGEM anyone? ORH south may not like it to much, Not bad in NE MA though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Its like giving a baby a pacifier when they cry to some on here, Hey, If it makes them feel better...........lol True lol. I was just annoyed when I sneak a look during work and see it. Then I hit the hay and check out the run and it looks nothing like the snow map printout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 And RPM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Its a better run, colder in mid levels. 850 is much better imo makes a diff esp for NCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: True lol. I was just annoyed when I sneak a look during work and see it. Then I hit the hay and check out the run and it looks nothing like the snow map printout. Yeah, I mean ea run usually looks different on them, I go where the mid levels are and liquid qpf, Usually can get a good idea by where its tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: Indeed some do wrt ptype. Damn Jerry when does it end? Poor EEK and Happy Hunchie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: 3:AM on April 1st, 1997. Would love a repeat, but I think if you're very lucky you get one of these in lifetime. I'll settle for plowable. Man snow, paste job, birch bender , deck destroyer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 41 minutes ago, JC-CT said: The NAM on Tropical Tidbits says I'm getting 20", my local meteorologist says I'm getting an inch of slush...I just don't know who to believe. I'll probably just split the difference. It's a 'conundrum bomb' more so than a snow one.. seriously. I can see several outcomes to this thing, ...ranging from dystopian misery for snow enthusiasts to an utter bonanza, and confusion in between. I could see you getting 1 inch of slush and buckshot sleeting for what seems like days down there, ...straight rain after some early cat-paws..., or light rain and 'paws over to parachutes, back to sleet and rain, then...flashing to uniform mid sizers down to 1/4 mi vis on Saturday circa noon.. Any of those appear plausible in my mind - sorry... it's a cluster f of scenario. but man Folks, that 18z NAM was a mouth gaper for sure. Unending hours of moderate to heavy fall rates with the 800, 900, and surface T's in the NAM grid all supporting snow and/or sleet and snow mixed for Logan... all the way to almost 3" of liq equiv. Something that also stood out to me is that ALB's sounding has been having trouble cooling off in that 800 mb level on many persistent cycles but suddenly...it's lost those +4's on this run... now, not really even warm enough to completely melt at that level, in this FRH grid. That means the entire column over the range is actually cooling in the run. Plus, I've been speculating all along that the QPF may be overdone - though in my defense... not committing to that. This run simply refuses to back off GIANT numbers. If I take the straight up differential between Logan and ALB and figure that for the interior of Worcester N to the EEN... there'd better be a warm layer way up there or watch out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 WTF GFS won't back down, still amazed the warm bias model is still the coldest, what the hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: WTF GFS won't back down, still amazed the warm bias model is still the coldest, what the hell 18z gfs much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's a 'conundrum bomb' more so than a snow one.. seriously. I can see several outcomes to this thing, ...ranging from dystopian misery for snow enthusiasts to an utter bonanza, and confusion in between. I could see you getting 1 inch of slush and buckshot sleeting for what seems like days down there, ...straight rain after some early cat-paws..., or light rain and 'paws over to parachutes, back to sleet and rain, then...flashing to uniform mid sizers down to 1/4 mi vis on Saturday circa noon.. Any of those appear plausible in my mind - sorry... it's a cluster f of scenario. but man Folks, that 18z NAM was a mouth gaper for sure. Unending hours of moderate to heavy fall rates with the 800, 900, and surface T's in the NAM grid all supporting snow and/or sleet and snow mixed for Logan... all the way to almost 3" of liq equiv. Something that also stood out to me is that ALB's sounding has been having trouble cooling off in that 800 mb level on many persistent cycles but suddenly...it's lost those +4's on this run... now, not really even warm enough to completely melt at that level, in this FRH grid. That means the entire column over the range is actually cooling in the run. Plus, I've been speculating all along that the QPF may be overdone - though in my defense... not committing to that. This run simply refuses to back off GIANT numbers. If I take the straight up differential between Logan and ALB and figure that for the interior of Worcester N to the EEN... there'd better be a warm layer way up there or watch out! I peeked at FOUS and nearly had an accident.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Gfs is sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Damn Jerry when does it end? Poor EEK and Happy Hunchie Not baseball wx...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I don't think anyone here knows what's going to happen with this. We can look at models, soundings..this one just reeks of ending up nothing like one would forecast for said area. Just wait and see what you wake yo tomorrow and that's your likely predominant precipitation type perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: WTF GFS won't back down, still amazed the warm bias model is still the coldest, what the hell GFS takes the SLP and tracks it due east along Lat 39N where the Euro is east along Lat 40N and the Nam east along Lat 40.5N, So its the furthest south along with the GGEM and coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I could see a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 So many in the general public will be going for Sarah McLaughlin CDs and hoses for tailpipes if some of these runs come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I don't think anyone here knows what's going to happen with this. We can look at models, soundings..this one just reeks of ending up nothing like one would forecast for said area. Just wait and see what you wake yo tomorrow and that's your likely predominant precipitation type perhaps Hate to say this but some Wx gurus with their cocky attitudes ( not here) need a comeuppance, I hope this busts super high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 GFS big cut back in precip for the North country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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