CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The only thing that matters in a place like ORH for this system is mid-level temps and precip....boundary layer is a non-starter there for me. If it's heavy precip and cold enough aloft, it's gonna be 29-31F pasting easy. Only way you get 32-34F non-accumulating snow is if the storm got shredded with cruddy precip rates. Right. If 925-850 is cold enough and we get into a CCB..it's 32.0 paste even here. But we need a little more help here obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 37 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We have to watch for another nor easter next weekend go back to bed, wake up in dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Triple bun question, but how's the extended weenie RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 The overnight Euro gives BTV 10" out of this. Can we lock that in to get us to the 100 inch season? (Need 6.5 inches to get there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Right. If 925-850 is cold enough and we get into a CCB..it's 32.0 paste even here. But we need a little more help here obviously. On a persistent boundary level east wind, midday, last day of March? Trees and shrubs paste--maybe.... I dunno. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: On a persistent boundary level east wind, midday, last day of March? Trees and shrubs paste--maybe.... I dunno. We'll see... The best precip rates actually seem to be after dark in this. More of a Friday night event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The best precip rates actually seem to be after dark in this. More of a Friday night event. Good point. That would certainly help. Another thing I don't like with these marginal areas is the fleeting surface high. When a surface high escapes east rather than hold its ground in southern Quebec there's a big difference in low level CAD, particularly in the areas that need it most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: On a persistent boundary level east wind, midday, last day of March? Trees and shrubs paste--maybe.... I dunno. We'll see... I was thinking more overnight. Inland might have more of a NE wind. But the waters are pretty chilly and heavy precip with winds gradually backing to NE overnight with sufficient 925-850 temps...can be done. But, I'm not going nuts here on the coast obviously. The way to go would be conservative for sure...at least as of now. But I certainly would have a better opinion for ORH on north with this one..even during the day. The first spots to change would be grass, shrubs etc. Eventually if heavy enough, roads. But all bets are off once the sun goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: On a persistent boundary level east wind, midday, last day of March? Trees and shrubs paste--maybe.... I dunno. We'll see... I remember the easterly inflow the night of 3/31/97. I also remember running in temperatures approaching 70 3/30/97. Don't get too caught up in model llvl temps in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I remember the easterly inflow the night of 3/31/97. I also remember running in temperatures approaching 70 3/30/97. Don't get too caught up in model llvl temps in this setup. Is that an analog for this? Curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 pope vs the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Is that an analog for this? Curious. Def not...that was way more powerful and dynamic. This one looks more tedious and a needle-threader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Def not...that was way more powerful and dynamic. This one looks more tedious and a needle-threader. Oh yeah..that was on another level..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 i see a warm trend on the last three runs of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Nam still hits interior New England pretty hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: i see a warm trend on the last three runs of the nam 12z is coming in much further north with snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Yeah that's warm in the mid-levels on the 12z NAM. Like sleet even into central VT/RUT to the Lakes Region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 12z is coming in much further north with snows... That map is useless as it includes sleet. NAM looks like hour 66 is IP up to RUT-LCI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's warm in the mid-levels on the 12z NAM. Like sleet even into central VT/RUT to the Lakes Region. ADK to NNE is where you want to be, I am going to hit up Gore on Friday and maybe WF on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Best snows are actually in Maine near Dryslot as it holds off the mid-level warmth and gets cranked with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 lol at the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That map is useless as it includes sleet. NAM looks like hour 66 is IP up to RUT-LCI. I was posting it more to show how far north it shifted regardless-GFS and NAM last night had a good chunk of CT getting in on the action...looks like a cold rain now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: ADK to NNE is where you want to be, I am going to hit up Gore on Friday and maybe WF on Saturday. NAM is sleet up to Whiteface though. Thats a burly mid-level warm layer near 800mb. SLK to RUT to CON axis is like inches of sleet. But it's the NAM at 48hrs+. It's known to be amped but mid-level warmth is also known to fly further north than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 15 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Is that an analog for this? Curious. No. I don't think any of the big historical late season bombs are. NAM way out of their useful range but warm nonetheless. Let's see what the rest of the 12Z suite shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: NAM is sleet up to Whiteface though. Thats a burly mid-level warm layer near 800mb. SLK to RUT to CON axis is like inches of sleet. But it's the NAM at 48hrs+. It's known to be amped but mid-level warmth is also known to fly further north than expected. Its la la land for the NAM, Euro looked good for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: No. I don't think any of the big historical late season bombs are. NAM way out of their useful range but warm nonetheless. Let's see what the rest of the 12Z suite shows. Nam gets a bunch of the northern stream involved...something the other guidance doesn't do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was thinking more overnight. Inland might have more of a NE wind. But the waters are pretty chilly and heavy precip with winds gradually backing to NE overnight with sufficient 925-850 temps...can be done. But, I'm not going nuts here on the coast obviously. The way to go would be conservative for sure...at least as of now. But I certainly would have a better opinion for ORH on north with this one..even during the day. The first spots to change would be grass, shrubs etc. Eventually if heavy enough, roads. But all bets are off once the sun goes down. 850-925 is cold, sure. But on the coastal plain your constantly replacing that mid-level to surface thermodynamic cooling by that 40F fetch off the Atlantic. Sun or not I think the BL in the coastal plain is too warm for a notable wintry impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Just now, qg_omega said: Its la la land for the NAM, Euro looked good for the mountains. Yup, will have to see what the rest of guidance does. Its always hard to completely discount mid-level warmth though as that stuff always seems to surprise us with how far north it makes it. You have to wonder if this turns into a heavy mixed bag storm as there's a lot of cold at 950mb. Rare April sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yup, will have to see what the rest of guidance does. Its always hard to completely discount mid-level warmth though as that stuff always seems to surprise us with how far north it makes it. You have to wonder if this turns into a heavy mixed bag storm as there's a lot of cold at 950mb. Rare April sleet storm. yes it doesn't look like rain or zr to me, would be thump of snow to sleet.....if we do get a big warm push at 800mb. Still should be several inches of snow before that happens if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Nam already won its once a winter trophy with March 14/15 event. It never wins twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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