powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Throws up a 20"-spot at MPV... lol I mean that's like ARW territory from what I saw on the SREFS. 15" from ORH to Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Almost sounds like the Euro is synoptically toss-able. At least this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, powderfreak said: Throws up a 20"-spot at MPV... lol I mean that's like ARW territory from what I saw on the SREFS. Just saw that. If that happens I believe that my birthday dinner at the Alchemist may not happen tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It crashes to southeast of the Cape by 18z..so it would be snowing very shortly after 12z. But what about the BL? That's a flood of warmth. Going to take a lot to cool 850 to the surface, for good accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What the hell just happened? Its got like 2"+ QPF for a large area of Vermont now. This is like 3x the amount the GFS has...and like 4 times the amount the GGEM has up here, lol. is that snow for the dacks??? thats a huge area of 2+! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 #clownmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: is that snow for the dacks??? thats a huge area of 2+! P-type algorithm says it is but I haven't looked that closely at the layers. It just rolled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: is that snow for the dacks??? thats a huge area of 2+! There's def a good amount of sleet in there I think...once you get into VT it's mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There's def a good amount of sleet in there I think...once you get into VT it's mostly snow. I'm not even convinced here on that look... if its that moist and juiced I bet we sleet for a time. The warm layer seems to be centered around 800mb on the NAM and unfortunately can't see that on the EURO...I only have 850mb and 700mb. But honestly I haven't seen anything else nearly that wet up here... I mean the difference in that between the RGEM/GFS/GGEM and the Euro is crazy. Its like there's some mid-level deformation rotting in C.VT or something that I'm skeptical of. I think that would be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 From the freebies, it doesn't look like a whole lot of difference at 850mb wrt temps from what was posted here for the 00z. So at least that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 This is a pretty big win for the NAM so far, based on the 850 mb track and warmer mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: This is a pretty big win for the NAM so far, based on the 850 mb track and warmer mid levels. Dude the NAM went like 50 miles south with the 850mb low track at 12z from its previous runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, DomNH said: Dude the NAM went like 50 miles south with the 850mb low track at 12z from its previous runs lol. He is trying real hard to be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I'm not even convinced here on that look... if its that moist and juiced I bet we sleet for a time. The warm layer seems to be centered around 800mb on the NAM and unfortunately can't see that on the EURO...I only have 850mb and 700mb. But honestly I haven't seen anything else nearly that wet up here... I mean the difference in that between the RGEM/GFS/GGEM and the Euro is crazy. Its like there's some mid-level deformation rotting in C.VT or something that I'm skeptical of. I think that would be further south. Well it's def not as torched as the NAM...but there is a pretty good tongue of mid-level warmth into NY State...it kind of hits a brick wall though near the VT border...so there would prob be some brief mixing into VT but not a lot. Meanwhile on the same panel it's probably still snowing around Ray. The QPF on the Euro def looks quirky to me...if anything H5 trended south this run, so I wouldn't have expected a big qpf bomb up in VT with a big sucker hole in CT. But who knows what it was doing this run...I get kind of annoyed when runs don't synoptically make sense. I remember there was a single run of the Euro before the March 2013 firehose that had a very similar sucker hole for precip covering almost all of SNE...except the convergence zone right on the coast of MA...and everyone freaked out and I was saying how it basically didn't look any different aloft, so there was no real reason to take it verbatim. Its def a good run for NNe, but I'd prob sell the 2" qpf amounts and buy the 0.5" amounts in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Oh sure Will, buy the 0.5" qpf of rain and resell it for 1.5"....gee thanks, nice guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'm not even convinced here on that look... if its that moist and juiced I bet we sleet for a time. The warm layer seems to be centered around 800mb on the NAM and unfortunately can't see that on the EURO...I only have 850mb and 700mb. But honestly I haven't seen anything else nearly that wet up here... I mean the difference in that between the RGEM/GFS/GGEM and the Euro is crazy. Its like there's some mid-level deformation rotting in C.VT or something that I'm skeptical of. I think that would be further south. GFS is also 2 inches QPF in the southern dacks...GGEM and RGEM are very dry and odd looking. NAM is pretty wet and warm in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Ha, you guys are addicted to clown maps. Dryslot or powderfreak prob have one to post...I don't use that site though so can't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ha, you guys are addicted to clown maps. Dryslot or powderfreak prob have one to post...I don't use that site though so can't help. Well, all the comments are conflicting and nebulous....those are how I can definitely determine trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 For the clowns............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The changes I'm seeing 12z vs. 0z Euro: H5 definitely ticked further south / southeast H7 maybe a tick north 850Ts a tick colder in Boston area 6z-18z Saturday Kuchera definitely is BETTER than 0z for northeast MA into Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Approve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: For the clowns............ Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, dryslot said: For the clowns............ Can you post Kuchera, should do better than 10:1 which is probably too high in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Wouldn't buy the Kuchera in ORH unless the midlevels are going considerably colder along with heavy precip rates and maybe elevation playing into the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx37 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 How much of that is sleet in the area just northwest of BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Can you post Kuchera, should do better than 10:1 which is probably too high in this storm. Kuchie Kue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said: Wouldn't buy the Kuchera in ORH unless the midlevels are going considerably colder along with heavy precip rates and maybe elevation playing into the game. What? Kuchera will be less snow it prob spit out 8:1 ratios or something like that for orh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Post Kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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