DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I know you did I recall the obs , you had good snow growth and rates way longer than i did in LWM and my radar echoes were stronger Yeah. Just think snow growth is my last concern for this one. It's going to be 7-8:1 aggies. Lift will eff it up more than anything. As long as we have good lift I think we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, I mean take it with a grain of salt for now...its still running out to 47 hours, but this is what it looks like Not that the RPM swayed me, but I think we may need to entertain the idea of a daytime paster on Saturday. Everything is slower and it seems temps aloft start to drop substantially during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 It's also back to condo collapsing NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wonder what King james thinks. Looks a lot like '78. 31 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Just ride whatever model and forecast gives MPM the least amount of snow. That logic has worked out every winter since Oct 2011. Lol. LOL--I like the RPM will just posted. 22 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't have the temp issues like most are dreading, I'm going to pull a MPM and go with qpf for this one. Welcome to the dark side. It's cold, dry place. Beautiful day--just strolled through Public Garden. That's so much nicer than the Common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not that the RPM swayed me, but I think we may need to entertain the idea of a daytime paster on Saturday. Everything is slower and it seems temps aloft start to drop substantially during the day. Yeah I can almost imagine the snow coming in late Friday but it is not that heavy...it flips to sleet/rain (depending on location) for many...everyone yells bust...and then around 4-7am on Saturday morning, there's a lot of flashing over to heavy snow and it ends up ripping for 8-10 more hours in the CCB. Obviously I wouldn't want to forecast this exact scenario yet, but it's something that is showing up on some guidance. RGEM kind of hinted at this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, I mean take it with a grain of salt for now...its still running out to 47 hours, but this is what it looks like Im at work on cell What does rpm show for rates say 4z to 12z or snow/mix line getting to (rte 2?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I can almost imagine the snow coming in late Friday but it is not that heavy...it flips to sleet/rain (depending on location) for many...everyone yells bust...and then around 4-7am on Saturday morning, there's a lot of flashing over to heavy snow and it ends up ripping for 8-10 more hours in the CCB. Obviously I wouldn't want to forecast this exact scenario yet, but it's something that is showing up on some guidance. RGEM kind of hinted at this too. My Box forecast has 50% chance of snow after midnight tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes. Even though the mid-level center trended south...lol. It was a bit obnoxious on the front end...so we'll see. I'm not totally buying that yet, though it's certainly in the back of my mind. Must be more n stream involvement initially flooding mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Im at work on cell What does rpm show for rates say 4z to 12z Mostly moderate rates for NE MA during that time but it starts to get heavy around 10z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: No thanks. You always manage to resort to personal attacks though. people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw boulders..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Euro still not shy about bringing in precip tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Yeah this run is def gonna be a bit warmer than 00z. 500mb is solidly southeast of 00z run...still kind of puzzling to me though why it would trend a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: people who live in glass houses shouldn't throw boulders..... I don't know anyone who lives in a glass house. Or can throw boulders. Your comment seems silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Euro is going to be north and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Oof - also really stingy on the precip 6z-12z. That's ugly outside of far northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Now at 48 its actually east of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 GFS tossed into the scrap heap yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Oof - also really stingy on the precip 6z-12z. That's ugly outside of far northern areas. Closed upper levels and mid-levels south of SNE and qpf goes from like 0.8" in 6 hours to 0.1" for a place like BDL...lol. QPF Tossed on that panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Closed upper levels and mid-levels south of SNE and qpf goes from like 0.8" in 6 hours to 0.1" for a place like BDL...lol. QPF Tossed on that panel. I think it maybe be a WSI grid spacing/coarse resolution issue on that QPF. I'll wait and see what the higher res stuff has. Has a nice QPF max for eastern Mass with easterly low level flow and convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Good dynamic cooling though Sat morning. That's probably pretty good for E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Storm going down the ****ter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I think it maybe be a WSI grid spacing/coarse resolution issue on that QPF. I'll wait and see what the higher res stuff has. Has a nice QPF max for eastern Mass with easterly low level flow and convergence. It just looks really odd...I mean, if you saw that upper level, you wouldn't expect a sucker hole over N/C CT and W/C MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I can only see through 36hr but H5 looks to be further south imo... from this I'd anticipate less northern stream interaction, a more progressive solution and hopefully better development late... changes that could help eastern SNE but we'll see shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, moneypitmike said: Storm going down the ****ter? No QPF for you! 7 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, wxsniss said: I can only see through 36hr but H5 looks to be further south imo... from this I'd anticipate less northern stream interaction, a more progressive solution and hopefully better development late... changes that could help eastern SNE but we'll see shortly It looks good for E MA on Sat morning (and for E MA north of the pike prior to 06z Sat)...but it has this big sucker hole in precip tot he west which I think is probably affecting the rest of the processes ont hat run, kind of hard to tell. You have a closed 500mb and mid-level centers south of LI on that run. It's pretty ideal for precip production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It looks good for E MA on Sat morning (and for E MA north of the pike prior to 06z Sat)...but it has this big sucker hole in precip tot he west which I think is probably affecting the rest of the processes ont hat run, kind of hard to tell. You have a closed 500mb and mid-level centers south of LI on that run. It's pretty ideal for precip production. 12z sat 850 mb 0c up to Gloucester. That's rain for most of E MA. -- no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Thats a great look at 850 at 48hr on my freebie map, no surface on TT. That would crush the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: 12z sat 850 mb 0c up to Gloucester. That's rain for most of E MA. -- no? It crashes to southeast of the Cape by 18z..so it would be snowing very shortly after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 What the hell just happened? Its got like 2"+ QPF for a large area of Vermont now. This is like 3x the amount the GFS has...and like 4 times the amount the GGEM has up here, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Euro also has a funky 700 hpa dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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