CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Wonder what King james thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: Wonder what King james thinks. He's busy writing his next novel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 UKIE looks warmish at the surface but pretty cold at 850. That would really crush places from Ray up to PSH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is a valid concern. Yeah I'm worried about rates tomorrow night...I could see like a marginal warm layer not being overcome because rates are too light...or the heavier rates are delayed too long so the WAA has time to penetrate further north. We'd probably get a dynamic crashing later on, but we'd "waste" a chunk of the heavier rates waiting for that to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Morch Madness said: UKIE looks warmish at the surface but pretty cold at 850. That would really crush places from Ray up to PSH I'll take the warm 2m....just keep the H85 cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 4-18" swing here Just ride whatever model and forecast gives MPM the least amount of snow. That logic has worked out every winter since Oct 2011. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Morch Madness said: UKIE looks warmish at the surface but pretty cold at 850. That would really crush places from Ray up to PSH It looks like a furnace to me at 850mb...until late in the game when it does crash and it looks like a period of heavy snow to end it. But the middle of the storm is warmer than the NAM even...it's been on the warmer envelope so far, but it hasn't trended cooler like I want to see. Which is weird, because once again, it is following the trend of early mid-level redevelopment...the track looks good. Maybe hair north of ideal, but still one that you'd like to see in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm worried about rates tomorrow night...I could see like a marginal warm layer not being overcome because rates are too light...or the heavier rates are delayed too long so the WAA has time to penetrate further north. We'd probably get a dynamic crashing later on, but we'd "waste" a chunk of the heavier rates waiting for that to occur. That's my big concern. We ooze in warmer air during lighter rates and then the meat comes and waste some or a lot of it (depending on where you live) trying to cool those temps and waiting for winds to back around and cool off. I'm thinking the areas that flip to mix or rain near BOS may end as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Based on Uki.. Euro will come in quite a bit warmer aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It looks like a furnace to me at 850mb...until late in the game when it does crash and it looks like a period of heavy snow to end it. But the middle of the storm is warmer than the NAM even...it's been on the warmer envelope so far, but it hasn't trended cooler like I want to see. Which is weird, because once again, it is following the trend of early mid-level redevelopment...the track looks good. Maybe hair north of ideal, but still one that you'd like to see in SNE. This is driving me nuts. Does not make sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Based on Uki.. Euro will come in quite a bit warmer aloft Lol... you're on the fringe so now we start trying to make this a mess everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 45 minutes ago, DomNH said: Zucker, that GFS panel is 1 hr QPF now, not 6 hr. Whoops, here is what I should have posted...Sat AM precip still looks rather light. Hard to see .10-.25" QPF as marginal snow really accumulating on April 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Lol... you're on the fringe so now we start trying to make this a mess everywhere I've never been in the game for snow. I do think an icestorm is now becoming a distinct possibility. I just wouldn't be throwing big snow totals out unless you're HUnch on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I don't have the temp issues like most are dreading, I'm going to pull a MPM and go with qpf for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It looks like a furnace to me at 850mb...until late in the game when it does crash and it looks like a period of heavy snow to end it. But the middle of the storm is warmer than the NAM even...it's been on the warmer envelope so far, but it hasn't trended cooler like I want to see. Which is weird, because once again, it is following the trend of early mid-level redevelopment...the track looks good. Maybe hair north of ideal, but still one that you'd like to see in SNE. Yeah my bad, cleared my cache and now I'm looking at the right thing. I was wondering why 850 and 2m temps were so different. Quite a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates. And funky snow growth once things warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: I don't have the temp issues like most are dreading, I'm going to pull a MPM and go with qpf for this one. You too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 If the Euro significantly warms aloft, its time to reevaluate my range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: And funky snow growth once things warm We saw this nicely when visibility went way up under 30+ DBZ echoes last storm around 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I'm half-expecting the Euro not to help us at all at 12z...prob a similar solution to 00z, maybe a bit slower, so it's warmer at some intervals and colder at others. Maybe slightly less snow which will convince some that this is definitely trending to crap...then 18z and 00z stuff comes in better and the 12z run is forgotten. Kind of a maddening storm. We've had a lot of marginal systems this year and of course this one decides to be another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You too! Nah, 850's looked ok here, Even on the toasty nam, We were -2.0°F at its warmest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 that's sort of what I mean too ... but, more at what I mentioned before. Folks seem like they are assuming big QPF is going to verify and I'm seeing: 1 ... QPF is not a particularly well performing metric in the models. We all know this, so.. just be cautious not to elide that factor in our rush to pile up snow totals here. 2 ... the mechanics of this are midland in strength? that doesn't lend well to to the NAM's 3" liq. equiv. out at Logan. Not sure where all this is coming from given to all. I'm looking up stream at rad and obs and so forth and I'm not seeing that verifying anywhere outside of a thunderstorm cluster(s). I'd probably go with the models and consensus here as a sackless whisper in a loud din of people engineering history ... (just kidding - relax) and let the chips fall where they may. I'm not excited on this until I see blue tinted foggy dawn Saturday actually happening. Of course... what if it rains hard anyway but the guidance flubbed the temperature handling ...there's that too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: We saw this nicely when visibility went way up under 30+ DBZ echoes last storm around 3pm Idk I had 3.5''/hr snow under 30 dBZ echoes. I wouldn't worry so much about funky snow growth for this one. We're saturated all the way through the column and don't have an H7 low driving through ALB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If the Euro significantly warms aloft, its time to reevaluate my range. I think it will, given UKIE but hoping its minimal/ noise for our latitude The other big thing is what it does with rates overnite friday, we cant afford that backing down much I like 4-8 for 495 as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Did the UK trend warmer in mid levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Big dynamic cooling on the latest RPM run...it is getting heavy snow into CT early Saturday morning as things crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Did the UK trend warmer in mid levels? Yes. Even though the mid-level center trended south...lol. It was a bit obnoxious on the front end...so we'll see. I'm not totally buying that yet, though it's certainly in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Big dynamic cooling on the latest RPM run...it is getting heavy snow into CT early Saturday morning as things crash. Teepees pitched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, DomNH said: Idk I had 3.5''/hr snow under 30 dBZ echoes. I wouldn't worry so much about funky snow growth for this one. We're saturated all the way through the column and don't have an H7 low driving through ALB. I know you did I recall the obs , you had good snow growth and rates way longer than i did in LWM and my radar echoes were stronger I was not sure what the culprit was but being about 20 miles wnw of me i figured i had crap snow growth while you were pounding dentrites under worse echoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Teepees pitched Yeah, I mean take it with a grain of salt for now...its still running out to 47 hours, but this is what it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.