Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Well I am pretty baffled by a model with a known warm thermal bias being colder than anything else. Guess we now cast this biatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I'm counting on climo to turn it into a miserable cold rain in ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:11 PM, nzucker said: I think there are a lot of red flags on this one. First, it's a fairly long duration, light precipitation event in the late season. I'm not seeing those 6hr frames of .5-.75" QPF that make me want to think huge dynamics overpowering a mediocre, late March airmass. Expand Say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:07 PM, JC-CT said: NW hills of CT? There was no snow from 48-60. Expand Verbatim on rgem with its surface maps, ok yes that is what it shows. Thought past 48 it would go nuts on the backside. Anyway, I have seen guidnace struggle with spring systems in my career here at dxrweenie.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 3:58 PM, Ginx snewx said: I have to disagree on that with strong easterly flow without a northern component , fat melting flakes and slop 10 to 15 miles inland Expand Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 3:58 PM, Ginx snewx said: I have to disagree on that with strong easterly flow without a northern component , fat melting flakes and slop 10 to 15 miles inland Expand Wrong, as currently depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 It's not the erly flow. Not at all. It's literally 850-800, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates. Expand Then can you explain the nws WSW logic that clearly does not follow the mid level thermal gradient? The coast all the way from Boston to Portland ME is not under wsw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates. Expand I am annoyed by this lazy approach to just generalize the impact of easterly winds on the coastal plane....requires a bit more critical thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:23 PM, CoastalWx said: It's not the erly flow. Not at all. It's literally 850-800, Expand Every single model is really cold in that 950mb range...esp up in NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:24 PM, jbenedet said: Then can you explain the nws WSW logic that clearly does not follow the mid level thermal gradient? Expand Sure. They refuse to heavy unless they see the whites ofits eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:24 PM, jbenedet said: Then can you explain the nws WSW logic that clearly does not follow the mid level thermal gradient? Expand It does...it's basically a latitude gradient. The exception is right near the shore...but the zones aren't divided fine enough to draw the lines right on the coast, so they extend maybe 10 miles inland. It probably would only be an issue within 5 miles of the shore and even I have my doubts about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Every single model is really cold in that 950mb range...esp up in NE MA. Expand This is why I don t care about easterly winds....its H85 and H8 that is of concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:27 PM, ORH_wxman said: It does...it's basically a latitude gradient. The exception is right near the shore...but the zones aren't divided fine enough to draw the lines right on the coast, so they extend maybe 10 miles inland. It probably would only be an issue within 5 miles of the shore. Expand We are talking about the shore to 10 miles inland. It's not a latitude gradient at all along the coast. That's a big deal when most of the population lives there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is wht U don t care about easterly winds....its H85 and H8 that is of concern. Expand Yeah if you were advecting +2 air at 950mb off the ocean like December 1996, then I'd be afraid of easterly flow there, but that is not the case. The high is in a pretty good spot for NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:28 PM, jbenedet said: We are talking about the shore to 10 miles inland. That's a big deal when most of the population lives there... Expand I'm never quite sure with you...sometimes you mention issues all the way out to ORH (like yesterday) which is like 40 miles inland and then you agree with Steve who was directly addressing Ray about how he should worry about easterly flow. Ray is further than 10 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:28 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if you were advecting +2 air at 950mb off the ocean like December 1996, then I'd be afraid of easterly flow there, but that is not the case. The high is in a pretty good spot for NE MA. Expand There is a reason that there is a larger precedent for major March snows on the cp, than there is December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Hell, Im not at all concinced that Gloucester and Lynn shore drive aren't buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:30 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'm never quite sure with you...sometimes you mention issues all the way out to ORH (like yesterday) which is like 40 miles inland and then you agree with Steve who was directly addressing Ray about how he should worry about easterly flow. Ray is further than 10 miles inland. Expand I believe the concern was surrounding his forecast, not his backyard. KORH is a midlevel issue. Temps are marginal but winds are not strong enough to matter there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:24 PM, jbenedet said: Then can you explain the nws WSW logic that clearly does not follow the mid level thermal gradient? The coast all the way from Boston to Portland ME is not under wsw. Expand It can be a confidence thing too. Offices can be more confident that it will snow in the interior than on the coast. It doesn't mean they don't think it will snow on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I agree that I wouldn't even bother looking at any levels below 850mb. Anyone N of the Pike and not directly on the water is going to pound mashed potatoes unless the mid-level temps say otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:32 PM, jbenedet said: I believe the concern was surrounding his forecast, not his backyard. KORH is a midlevel issue. Temps are marginal but winds are not strong enough to matter there. Expand It would not shock me if ORH is like 28F tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:32 PM, OceanStWx said: It can be a confidence thing too. Offices can be more confident that it will snow in the interior than on the coast. It doesn't mean they don't think it will snow on the coast. Expand Ugh. We are talking past each other here. That's my point. Why the lower confidence if it's all about the mid levels, as will and 40/70 are saying? The mid levels are ice cold north of Boston, yet no watches all the way to Portland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hell, Im not at all concinced that Gloucester and Lynn shore drive aren't buried. Expand Get to a keyboard, fast. You are struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:32 PM, jbenedet said: I believe the concern was surrounding his forecast, not his backyard. KORH is a midlevel issue. Temps are marginal but winds are not strong enough to matter there. Expand your logic is all over the place over the past 2 days. Whats your forecast for BOS and ORH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Hell, the lower level soundings are cold enough that I might forecast a sleet bomb for some folks before I'd forecast rain if the mid-levels end up too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: Lol...its like -3 to -4C at 950mb over Ray's fanny...I def wouldn't be worrying about easterly flow there screwing me. I'd worry about two things where Ray is...mid-level temps and precip rates. Expand Who said anything about Ray? He said Tarmac I said 10 to 15 miles inland. Those 950 numbers came from which model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:34 PM, CoastalWx said: It would not shock me if ORH is like 28F tomorrow night. Expand I can see that. Tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:34 PM, CoastalWx said: It would not shock me if ORH is like 28F tomorrow night. Expand only concern for ORH is temps from 700 to 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 On 3/30/2017 at 4:16 PM, Ginx snewx said: Say what? Expand You also have a lot of frames like this on the GFS with 0.01-0.1" scattered QPF. The low is rapidly occluding to the south which prevents the typical stacking of the thickness gradient and development of powerful CCB. We had a storm like this around 3/25/14 when there was a 980mb low like 100 miles south of NYC and all we got was a rain/sleet mix. It was occluding fast and the diurnal heating of this time of year makes it harder to rip a CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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