qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 GFS is a crusher for the Dacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Lucy I'm home?, exactly why we wait for 12Z today before sounding the whistles. I think NWS and local mets are doing a great job with this laying low until its time to pull a trigger for amounts good or bad. The rush to put numbers out there can bite ya in the arse I'm fine with my first call ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 LOL GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 What a weird ass thermal profile on the GFS. A warm tongue at 850 that tickle's MPM's fanny but MMK is 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 GFS is feet in the higher elevations of the Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Goofus not backing down in NCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I think we are seeing dynamics play around with the temps. Look how temps cool again as thicknesses drop on 12z saturday. I wonder if this is a lesson in placement of 850-700 lows and maintaining precip rates vs model noise of bouncing around temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: RGEM really cut back on total snow QPF from the 6z run...also on QPF in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The dynamics turn to meh after about midnight. I think the GFS has a few screws loose yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Ginx snewx said: NE MA special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think we are seeing dynamics play around with the temps. Look how temps cool again as thicknesses drop on 12z saturday. I wonder if this is a lesson in placement of 850-700 lows and maintaining precip rates vs model noise of bounding around temps. I thought about that a lot. I still think BL is affected by strong inflow near the NE Mass coast, tough call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 21 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Hey, the NAM has 1.4" of freezing rain for ORH. That would do some damage. Wondering if after 2-4" of sleet we just turn this into icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I thought about that a lot. I still think BL is affected by strong inflow near the NE Mass coast, tough call That is a track that normally would have me nude right now. Classic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: not for the nw hills on the backside if it goes nuts there. I was looking at it through 84, it was rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yeah that's a huge drop pretty much everywhere except NE Mass from 00z and 06z. The RGEM was widespread like 30+mm prior to that. Maybe we are narrowing in on a smaller region of big snows....with more widespread 3-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Wondering if after 2-4" of sleet we just turn this into icestorm I think it's possible for you. For me, I'm sticking with slush to heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's a huge drop pretty much everywhere except NE Mass from 00z and 06z. The RGEM was widespread like 30+mm prior to that. Maybe we are narrowing in on a smaller region of big snows....with more widespread 3-8". thats pretty ugly, very NAMish in the adriondacks with sleet driving into NNE. On the other hand the GFS drops 20+ at Gore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That is a track that normally would have me nude right now. Classic look. Yeah that's what I was saying earlier. If I was looking just at the mid-level low placement without any thermal guidance I wouldn't have any worries about a ML warmth push to the NH/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That is a track that normally would have me nude right now. Classic look. Having such a weak sauce high to the north doesn't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I thought about that a lot. I still think BL is affected by strong inflow near the NE Mass coast, tough call Its all about the mid levels....I'm not worried about the surface, outside of maybe the tarmac at Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I just don't think the GFS has a clue. As much as I'd like it to work out . I don't ever recall a scenario where it's thermals are colder than the Euro and the Mesos. Can anyone else.. and if so.. was it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Somebody wanted a GFS Koochie in their Choochie? I am on board for I ain't seeing 12 inches of snow James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its all about the mid levels....I'm not worried about the surface, outside of maybe the tarmac at Logan. I have to disagree on that with strong easterly flow without a northern component , fat melting flakes and slop 10 to 15 miles inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Having such a weak sauce high to the north doesn't help. I mean the placement maintaining itself is good. It's just what happens near 6z as warmer air tries to move in before winds turn erly and cuts off the warming near 12z. I'm still being conservative unless euro tells me otherwise. At least for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Somebody wanted a GFS Koochie in their Choochie? I am on board for I ain't seeing 12 inches of snow James Aint' happening James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I have to disagree on that with strong easterly flow without a northern component , fat melting flakes and slop 10 to 15 miles inland Yea and that's showing up on all guidance right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I was looking at it through 84, it was rain. Not happening up there, for you and I...yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Not happening up there, for you and I...yes. NW hills of CT? There was no snow from 48-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 So we 70/30 euro mix and its hide the chickens and little Hunchbacks as well as the Mini MPMS, the NE Mass crew will have a great fight on their hands, some winners some losers, one of those drive 5 miles and go oh wow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: I'm surprised at how conservative the NWS is going as well... I'd think ALY and GYX would've gone slam dunk Warnings already for their SNH/SVT zones. It seems some storms you look at the forecasts and its widespread 12-18" and you are scratching your head and then there are ones like this where models are throwing some huge moisture out there and places are worried about going more than 7-12". I was surprised there wasn't more impact hit by the NWS in what has always looked like a high impact zone of RT 2 up into central VT/NH. I'm also surprised ALY has nothing in the Catskills...even if its not going to be snow that looks like 1"+ of QPF as sleet and freezing rain. Especially for those 2,000ft towns. I think there are a lot of red flags on this one. First, it's a fairly long duration, light precipitation event in the late season. I'm not seeing those 6hr frames of .5-.75" QPF that make me want to think huge dynamics overpowering a mediocre, late March airmass. Second, due to the long duration and slow movement of the storm, there is an extended period of east winds at the coast. This is especially true with the H5 track. Maritime air could easily make it into Boston and then you're left with a 35F rain or non accumulating catpaws. Finally, the surface low is fairly weak. This isn't a 980mb bomb. Nothing in common with 4/1/97 or 4/15/07. A weaker surface low will result in less dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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