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Son of April Fool's Birch Bender


HoarfrostHubb

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

We just need it a tad more south for a Region wide pasting in SNE.  

It would have been nice to get a storm like this during the winter. Did you see the long range? A few noreasters possible. Lets hope we all cash in on some snow moving forward.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What about those of us well inland in the west(not extremely West, but say 15 miles West of the CT River in CT, at 200 ft elevation)?

Tough forecast. Right now my best guess looks like snow to plain rain for you.  The earlier start time is a benefit, however. The issue for you isn't the surface winds, it's the mid levels that get cooked. 

All snow areas looks like VT, interior NH and MA north/west of KORH.

 

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15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea BL is toast up to portsmouth NH with those low level easterly winds. Flakes forming puddles on the coastal plain. Looks like an issue in MA all the way out to KORH.

You think ORH is gonna have a boundary layer problem if aloft is cold enough? Not a chance. If they have issues, it will be because it is too warm aloft.

 

I could see some issues right near the coast...but even back to 128 will get pasted if it is cold enough aloft...it is actually quite cold at 900-925mb.

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7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It would have been nice to get a storm like this during the winter. Did you see the long range? A few noreasters possible. Lets hope we all cash in on some snow moving forward.

I agree Anthony...Even a month ago this would have been great for a lot more folks.  Each day that goes by now though...it gets that much more difficult for snow...not impossible of course, but you know what I mean.  If this pans out for SNE...I feel this will be it.  This is a bonus for sure if it happens.

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Tough forecast. Right now my best guess looks like snow to plain rain for you.  The earlier start time is a benefit, however. The issue for you isn't the surface winds, it's the mid levels that get cooked. 

All snow areas looks like VT, interior NH and MA north/west of KORH.

 

Thanks for the response J.   Let's see if the 12z runs look good for SNE???

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You think ORH is gonna have a boundary layer problem if aloft is cold enough? Not a chance. If they have issues, it will be because it is too warm aloft.

 

I could see some issues right near the coast...but even back to 128 will get pasted if it is cold enough aloft...it is actually quite cold at 900-925mb.

KORH is tough forecast, probably right near that line, which dilineates significant impact to little/no impact. It's going to snow, but at what surface temperature? Do paved surfaces see much of anything? Tough call. Don't like the timing of this either in terms of ISR. If this was happening mostly overnight and highs leading up to this weren't in the mid 50's I'd feel more optimistic as well.

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The models are probably underestimating the CAD, and I'm surprised there's not a more northerly isallobaric component to the sfc flow with that deepening secondary low S of LI. I wouldn't be worried about the sfc at ORH unless this goes way north (waa) or way south (meh omega).

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5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

KORH is tough forecast, probably right near that line, which dilineates significant impact to little/no impact. It's going to snow, but at what surface temperature? Do paved surfaces see much of anything? Tough call. Don't like the timing of this either in terms of ISR. If this was happening mostly overnight and highs leading up to this weren't in the mid 50's I'd feel more optimistic as well.

If there's significant QPF and aloft is cold enough, it should be a high impact almost all the way to the coast. If precip rates remain mostly light, then it will be an issue for many folks.

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Oh man, ORH and those hills are the last place I worry about for low level temps in this setup. You got E-NE flow pushing up and cooling in an already cold sub 850mb layer. Not a chance. I agree with Will...if they rain..it is because of temps off the deck simply getting too warm, or extremely meager precip rates. I respect those hills.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Oh man, ORH and those hills are the last place I worry about for low level temps in this setup. You got E-NE flow pushing up and cooling in an already cold sub 850mb layer. Not a chance. I agree with Will...if they rain..it is because of temps off the deck simply getting too warm. 

I'm not expecting rain at ORH either. It's going to snow lol. I'm questioning impact at ORH.  

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The models are probably underestimating the CAD, and I'm surprised there's not a more northerly isallobaric component to the sfc flow with that deepening secondary low S of LI. I wouldn't be worried about the sfc at ORH unless this goes way north (waa) or way south (meh omega).

Seems like the models often under-estimate the CAD and also under-estimate the mid-level warm layers. 

Sort of like take the under on SFC temps and maybe take the over at H8 or something.

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3 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It's hard to get a powder storm this time of year.  But April 2016 proved the exception 

It can happen.   I still remember April 8 1982 in Boston.  Powder blizzard even in Boston.  Boston made it down to 16F.   You can find lots of info on the web.  This certainly is a very different storm and airmass!

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2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not that anyone cares but tomorrow is not guaranteed for any of us. Youll be around in 2037, physically or in spirit anyways ;) 

May 77 must of been crazy. How did the on air mets, they had tv back then right?, deal with it? did they call it in advance or did it sneak up on them and the public?

I was not here from 1976-91 so I missed '77 and '82.  I was here for '97 though and that makes up for it...

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

ORH is magic. I'll never underestimate that 1k elevation. Maybe if precip rates are crappy downtown at lower elevation or something like that.

The only thing that matters in a place like ORH for this system is mid-level temps and precip....boundary layer is a non-starter there for me. If it's heavy precip and cold enough aloft, it's gonna be 29-31F pasting easy.

 

Only way you get 32-34F non-accumulating snow is if the storm got shredded with cruddy precip rates.

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