klw Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, sankaty said: We're headed to Plymouth (between Okemo and Killington). It will be well after onset, but still optimistic for mostly wet roads on 91 south of Brattleboro during the day. Plymouth could be one of the hardest hit spots up here, it always seems to do well: Location At least Likely Potential for >=0.1" >=1" >=2" >=4" >=6" >=8" >=12" >=18" Plymouth, VT 3 11 21 95% 93% 91% 86% 79% 71% 51% 24% I assume 91 will be okay most of the way but those miles from 91 to Plymouth could be poor as they are not main roads. I assume they keep them okay to let people get to Okemo however. Don't forget to use 511 page to look at the road cameras on 91. http://newengland511.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Even the NAM is cold from srfc to 950. It's got U20s late tomorrow aftn in nrn ORH. LOL. The warm layer has gotten a lot thinner on the NAM...so we'll see if that translates further at 12z. It's still a bit obnoxious verbatim, but not nearly like 00z or even yesterday's other runs. It's funny, the 06z model has BOS at +4.5 at 850mb at 06z Sat morning, but it is -2.5C at 950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Gross Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Another key to watch is going to be that huge ocean storm southeast of Newfoundland. If that goes any further west, you're probably talking about an even colder solution here with the Quebec High further west / more entrenched. In many ways, the ocean storm is driving / setting the table for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The warm layer has gotten a lot thinner on the NAM...so we'll see if that translates further at 12z. It's still a bit obnoxious verbatim, but not nearly like 00z or even yesterday's other runs. It's funny, the 06z model has BOS at +4.5 at 850mb at 06z Sat morning, but it is -2.5C at 950mb. What happens when it goes warm/out of the dgz and slants back in at 950 before falling at surface at +0c. Looks mad complicated lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, Matthew Gross said: Another key to watch is going to be that huge ocean storm southeast of Newfoundland. If that goes any further west, you're probably talking about an even colder solution here with the Quebec High further west / more entrenched. In many ways, the ocean storm is driving / setting the table for this event. In many ways, Big Boy never left, sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skivt2 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, sankaty said: Drive carefully! Especially because we'll be behind you . Years of experience says between exit 3 and exit 6 on 91 and the Proctorsville Gulf between Chester and Ludlow are the worst spots. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Doesn't sound like a lot of local mets are hitting the power outage aspect of this hard enough. I've barely heard anything about it. I don't see a Oct '11 level of outages, but something significant like Thanksgiving 2014 wouldn't surprise me. 1''+ QPF worth of blue snow is going to bring down wires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The warm layer has gotten a lot thinner on the NAM...so we'll see if that translates further at 12z. It's still a bit obnoxious verbatim, but not nearly like 00z or even yesterday's other runs. It's funny, the 06z model has BOS at +4.5 at 850mb at 06z Sat morning, but it is -2.5C at 950mb. It's tracking the 850 low across SNE. Also, look at the NAM on 6z Saturday at 700mb and at 500mb. Does that look strange? How is H7 so far north, and H5 so far south? That is fishy to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 39 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: Just tell me ORH will be spared and that the drive to Wells, Maine will be fine on Saturday morning. At this point in the season its just as sloppy mess with the potential to bring down power lines, etc. And this is from an ardent winter/snow lover. (If I had my way the actual cold wintry weather would extend to the end of April and July would be like May, but if wishes were fishes) lol, Absolutely not, That the worse possible time once you get here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's tracking the 850 low across SNE. Also, look at the NAM on 6z Saturday at 700mb and at 500mb. Does that look strange? How is H7 so far north, and H7 so H5 so far south? That is fishy to me. Yeah it is def an outlier on those mid-level tracks. The big trend last night was redeveloping the mid-level centers to our south...how quickly that occurs will make a big difference in whether a place like Boston gets 12"+ of snow vs 2-3" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Rpm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, weathafella said: Rpm? Only out to 23 hours...09z run was a lot warmer than the 00z KU event, lol. It's been flip flopping between a monster storm for BOS area and a nuisance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Only out to 23 hours...09z run was a lot warmer than the 00z KU event, lol. It's been flip flopping between a monster storm for BOS area and a nuisance event. That 09Z is a bit of a flag to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 We're headed to Plymouth (between Okemo and Killington). It will be well after onset, but still optimistic for mostly wet roads on 91 south of Brattleboro during the day.Maple sundae at the Green Mountain Sugar House ftw. Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Think the new NAM is going to be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, DomNH said: Think the new NAM is going to be better. Pretty clear by 24 hours that it won't be as warm as 06z. Question is by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 H5 never opens up on nam out 24. Quite different than 6z, which was open out to hr 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Pretty big difference through 30 hours in thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 A nod to the EURO and GFS on the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Gross Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Based on what the NAM looks like here, it's Game On north of the Mass Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 To each his/her own ... but, I'm hoping this is so wet and gloppy that it actually just slides off trees and power lines before it can gather enough suspended mass to do that sort of trouble for the grid. I realize there is a contingent of those in here that lack a kind of responsible thinking/perspective on these sort of things, but for those of us who are home owners and are mature, and think about the bigger picture of things in a more pragmatical ...if perhaps "sane" light, losing power is a very bad thing (to put it nicely). Not sure where that wanton motivation finds its seed frankly. I do think of it as a maturity thing though. For those who's realities ...disconnect the consequence from the cause is such matters, they have a sort of compartmentalized, child-like fascination with destruction as adults that they fail to relate to the rest of practical matters of their existence. Heh, and I'm not different - I was a complete hypocritical douche-bag until I owned my own home. That October job a few years back cost me 2,500 $ to relay several roof panels and reshingle a portion of my roof and ...well, it all ended for me pretty f'n fast really when that happened oy vay... what can you do. Part of me will always carry a fascination with the wonders of Nature ... and what it can do and all that. And, duh...we can't explore that if we don't get annihilated once in a while. But one wants the buck to stop sort of just short ... when it is ones own responsibility to wherewithal and edifices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: H5 never opens up on nam out 24. Quite different than 6z, which was open out to hr 24. Yeah way sharper trough. I bet this run is going to cave with the midlevels developing near LI rather than ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Revised snow-out date for the backyard is now April 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 NAM is still warmest of the models but slowly cooling in the mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 It still seems lost at H7, but definitely a shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Gross Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Looks like the precip is also held back by a couple of hours / more consolidated than previous NAM runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Huge shift south with the 850mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Still warmest but H85 is @3C cooler at KBOS 42 hours vs 48 on 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, DomNH said: Huge shift south with the 850mb low. H7 too. Still toasty, but hopefully on the right trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 NAM has been flipping on the thermal incursion aloft ... A couple runs ago, I saw one cycle with an elevated warm layer so high that it became more like a sleet/snow noodle carpet bombing... It was -2 C at 850 mb over Logan, ... but +2 or 3 over top way up like at 750 or something. Those temps aren't enough to flip to solid sleet, particularly in heavy fall rates. That's more like those big noodles that glom mangled aggregates together and then partially refreezes them. Meanwhile, on that same run, ALB was still +4 at 800 ...so meh. But, the next run comes out and the warm layer is all the way down to 850 mb at some 2 C warmer... rain. The GGEM last night was wicked looking. That runs cooling in the closing innings may be telling, because that model basically has no use to me accept for that one little subtle sort of idiosyncrasy about it's behavior - when it cools the closing innings the game tends to verify colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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