powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The zone in the box (this is the EURO) has been hammered on pretty much all models for days now. I'm not sure what the reservation is in that area. RT 2 up to RUT-LCI might as well go 12-18" and hoist the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Still easier forecast for BOS than it is pike to C CT. BOS likely all snow..Ct to pike could be all snow, all sleet or a combo of both Ha. I wish it were easy. Maybe right at the terminal you go low, but this is something where I could see Logan getting 2" and West Roxbury 8" or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Ha. I wish it were easy. Maybe right at the terminal you go low, but this is something where I could see Logan getting 2" and West Roxbury 8" or something like that. Well maybe right at the water yeah lower totals.But just inland bang away. You think it turns into 3-5" of sleet pike south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Gross Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Obviously this is not the same setup, but being the same date on the calendar I was brushing up on the 97 event and was surprised to see how badly the totals were underestimated there less than 18 hours before things got underway. That storm just kept trending colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Well maybe right at the water yeah lower totals.But just inland bang away. You think it turns into 3-5" of sleet pike south? For you...maybe a few? I honestly haven't looked hard there. Ryan would definitely be a better person for your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: For you...maybe a few? I honestly haven't looked hard there. Ryan would definitely be a better person for your hood. Lol at you thinking he really cared about the forecast for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Anyone know if the verification scores for the NAM improve in spring months versus winter months? Isn't the NAM's model physics better suited for meteorological spring and summer versus winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Lol at you thinking he really cared about the forecast for BOS He should. We are ern MA centric after all according to him. Honestly, I am swamped with sh*t. Haven't looked there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Anyone know if the verification scores for the NAM improve in spring months versus winter months? Isn't the NAM's model physics better suited for meteorological spring and summer versus winter? Nobody knows this new version of the NAM. I find the 3km snow map output is very good if you are looking for an elevation map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, jbenedet said: Anyone know if the verification scores for the NAM improve in spring months versus winter months? Isn't the NAM's model physics better suited for meteorological spring and summer versus winter? Yes, it's a model made for convection. It's typically too amped up with synoptic events, but sometimes dynamic events can play into its hands. In this case, it's definitely tracking the 850 low north more than any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Max precip time and 850 to 700 max temps, interesting on the Euro so close for some to be isothermal. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2 feet in NORH County SVT Berks SNH SME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: He should. We are ern MA centric after all according to him. Honestly, I am swamped with sh*t. Haven't looked there. I'm sure he's seen what Ryan's station is forecasting. Slush for most of the state, around 2-4 up by him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 For mby I'd like to see the GFS cave a lot at 12z. The other models have been slightly tickling cooler while the GFS has been steadfast or even doubling down. Is the op NAM the 3km version yet? I haven't paid attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: For mby I'd like to see the GFS cave a lot at 12z. The other models have been slightly tickling cooler while the GFS has been steadfast or even doubling down. Is the op NAM the 3km version yet? I haven't paid attention. Yes the parallels are now the OPs. 12km and 3km Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op was a hair warmer at 850 between 6z and 12z but a tad cooler at 925. Man what a tough call. I'm not s fan of that 850 warmth though. At least in SNE. It's tucking the low near KFOK. As a warning - hahaha... "you're FOKKED" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Max precip time and 850 to 700 max temps, interesting on the Euro so close for some to be isothermal. Wouldn't be surprised to see 2 feet in NORH County SVT Berks SNH SME That's warmer than I thought...even for up here. How are the H7 temps? I'd assume those layer max temps are closer to H8 and that H7 is fine for solid nucleation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: For mby I'd like to see the GFS cave a lot at 12z. The other models have been slightly tickling cooler while the GFS has been steadfast or even doubling down. Is the op NAM the 3km version yet? I haven't paid attention. Lol like you have anything to worry about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: That's warmer than I thought...even for up here. How are the H7 temps? I'd assume those layer max temps are closer to H8 and that H7 is fine for solid nucleation. Congrats Dendrite take it to the bank, hide the chickens, send Lisa to Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 One thing about CT though, is the potential is there for some nasty sh*t of wet snow, pellets and freezing rain. Could be a mess for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, dendrite said: That's warmer than I thought...even for up here. How are the H7 temps? I'd assume those layer max temps are closer to H8 and that H7 is fine for solid nucleation. About -4C for you. No fake snow for you. #manstuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: For mby I'd like to see the GFS cave a lot at 12z. The other models have been slightly tickling cooler while the GFS has been steadfast or even doubling down. Is the op NAM the 3km version yet? I haven't paid attention. Nothing to fear, dont ocd it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: That's warmer than I thought...even for up here. How are the H7 temps? I'd assume those layer max temps are closer to H8 and that H7 is fine for solid nucleation. Is that why the map Steve posted has a cad look in the valleys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing to fear, dont ocd it. that's rich - heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, DomNH said: Looks like pretty much everything has held serve. I like a general 5-10'' right now from like Kevin north and west of 95. I bet some of the weenie areas near ORH and in the Monads see over a foot. This is happening. Sell the golf clubs for a genny. Man. What an interesting forecast for us. The Euro has been deadest on printing out 2-2.25" qpf. Even at something as low as 5-1. That's still 10-12" of pure cement. Better go pick up a 30 rack and some candles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Is that why the map Steve posted has a cad look in the valleys? Yep 700 ain't the issue 800 and below , I see that nasty mix for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yes, it's a model made for convection. It's typically too amped up with synoptic events, but sometimes dynamic events can play into its hands. In this case, it's definitely tracking the 850 low north more than any model. Thanks. That's what I figured. So it's wise to give it more respect in this case than we're accustomed to with respect to mid latitude cyclones...The question is -- how much? Should be interesting to see the trends today... I'm thinking a blend of the euro and nam is a good conservative position right now, as we await today's trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skivt2 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: One thing about CT though, is the potential is there for some nasty sh*t of wet snow, pellets and freezing rain. Could be a mess for a bit. When would the highest impact be on travel if that is the case? Friday night? Hate to ask an IMBY question but my grandmothers funeral is at 10am in Bethel Ct. driving there and back from Windsor locks between 8am and 1pm or so. 84? Expecting nothing to be sticking at that point so roads OK. Family is freaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: that's rich - heh Man, off topic but too bad this pattern was a month late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 50 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Agreed all of Warren county has been over a foot on the Euro for the past 5 runs it's been very consistent, I think Gore does very well here only concern is mid level warmth Gore really looks like the place to be in NYS this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Please excuse this mby question but my in laws live just over the ct border in mass in the berks and father in law is in hospital in Springfield for knee replacement. Supposed to be released tomorrow to be driven back to berks. How are driving conditions looking tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.