ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Holy crap on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Congrats Ray on the weenie extended RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 That is a healthy ccb gfs is trying to depict. nct into ma pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Hey Everyone!! I JUST ARRIVED BACK HOME!! (From Finland & Iceland Airport's Evacuation, which was fun) So I can Now guarantee - NO SNOW in Northern RI! No questions about it. I didn't pay anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Big dynamic cooling on the 00z Canadian...would hit CT pretty good and get them in on the action finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 What's up with the little pocket of snow that kind of dips down into SE Mass on some guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 hours ago, jbenedet said: Fair enough. But to clarify i never thought all of NE MA would be out of the game--all day my concerned areas have been pretty much in-line with the wsw areas (or lack thereof) already issued by the nws. I do, however think this is a non-event for Boston metro. Disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Congrats Ray on the weenie extended RGEM: That right there is the classic signature of a spring snow event manifesting itself in the snowfall algorithm output....that little appendage of heavier snows from ORH into ne MA. Check out May 1977... Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Best GFS run yet today... Colder, ticked southeast vs. 18z GFS, but with heavier rates... that run would bring warning to most of MA outside of southeast Soundings for KBOS remain below freezing above 1000 or 975mb the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Best GFS run yet today... Colder, ticked southeast vs. 18z GFS, but with heavier rates... that run would bring warning to most of MA outside of southeast Soundings for KBOS remain below freezing above 1000 or 975mb the entire event All guidance at 00z (including the clown range RGEM and RPM) sans the NAM is giving Boston pretty major snowfall. I think it definitely needs to be considered a little more seriously...obviously it is good remain quite cautious until maybe 24h out, but I no longer think it is like a 1 in 5 shot type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That right there is the classic signature of a spring snow event manifesting itself in the snowfall algorithm output....that little appendage of heavier snows from ORH into ne MA. Check out May 1977... Classic. The more dynamic look on this as we get closer has me definitely more optimistic for something pretty good...the slight colder/south tick so far at 00z is really solidifying your location. Always good to have a little wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I am cautious of a last minute tick north....like Steve said. I am gung-ho as it relates to current guidance. Should it shift north, all bets are off....I am not locking anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 We often see things tick one way or another in this time frame only to go the other way in the end. Hopefully it stays colder but still red flags for a location like BOS now. I'd feel pretty good near Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: All guidance at 00z (including the clown range RGEM and RPM) sans the NAM is giving Boston pretty major snowfall. I think it definitely needs to be considered a little more seriously...obviously it is good remain quite cautious until maybe 24h out, but I no longer think it is like a 1 in 5 shot type deal. I'd say more like a 2/3 in 5 deal. I'd put the over/under at 6" downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Another sign that confidence is increasing is that disparity between the 10:1 and Kuchera maps is decreasing. ...better handle on thermal fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Hazey said: The Nam better be off its rocker or I'm going to snap my shovel over my knee. Grr. It's keeps god darn snowing here. Added another 5" onto the tally today. Weren't you complaining about not enough snow a couple of months back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Yeah maybe I'm wrong, but the synoptics and trajectory of this system have me a little less wary than the March 14 storm from the perspective of guidance shifts in the last 48 hours... We had better antecedent cold then, but that track emerging from the south was more susceptible to intense convection shifting the track northwest in the last 48 hours, and indeed guidance went from BM to elbow to PYM track or thereabouts... the mesos did better in that setup This time the flow is more zonal with a bowling ball of a mid-level low just rolling across... the main risk this time is influence of northern stream tugging that zonal track north, but trends today have been reassuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 GEFS match the OP very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Euro op was a hair warmer at 850 between 6z and 12z but a tad cooler at 925. Man what a tough call. I'm not s fan of that 850 warmth though. At least in SNE. It's tucking the low near KFOK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 EPS is a hair cooler at 850 through 12z Saturday. Man what a tough call near pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 My fingers remained cross for both temps and qpf. I guess the biggest crossing of them is for temp profile. Remember how the last one shifted during the final 24 hours..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Definitely going to want to keep an eye on this being really tucked in and a late north trend--over LI or even a bit north of there. The mesos likely have an upper hand here...Upper level jet dynamics are virtually non-existent and we have an early cut-off low at 500, so I have concern that the best surface pressure falls will be collocated with the deepest convection rather than where they should be based on the longwave depiction, further southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Definitely going to want to keep an eye on this being really tucked in and a late north trend--over LI or even a bit north of there. The mesos likely have an upper hand here...Upper level jet dynamics are virtually non-existent and we have an early cut-off low at 500, so I have concern that the best surface pressure falls will be collocated with the deepest convection rather than where they should be based on the longwave depiction, further southeast. boooooo!! Actually, a wet solution wouldn't be bad for my personal plan for Saturday which is driving my daughter to Anime Boston. Get excited. (?). 30.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Even if we dont get hit here im taking a weenie drive saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6z gfs is a blue bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just now, ineedsnow said: 6z gfs is a blue bomb It is. Tick colder than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Pretty fascinating model mayhem right now. Neither side has blinked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Don't have much use for any more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 6z RGEM snowfall Right into Boston with 1.2-1.4" QPF as snow if I did the math right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Euro op was a hair warmer at 850 between 6z and 12z but a tad cooler at 925. Man what a tough call. I'm not s fan of that 850 warmth though. At least in SNE. It's tucking the low near KFOK. It was also colder at 00z and 12z. Only the 06z panel was a smidge warmer. Looks like massive dynamic cooling though between 06z and 12z. What an interesting forecast. Look at when the qpf falls. The big stuff is later than previously. Almost more toward Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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