40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I have to say....the euro op concerns me more regarding that 850ish later down to 925 or so vs low level temps. Winds will gradually back to NE, but warming aloft occurs. If I knew it would be solidly below freezing in those layers, I would feel better. I know the waters in 2015 were a bit colder, but I remember when we had the 3/28 surprise snow here...pretty sure SSTs helped me with the wind off the coder water vs inland by TAN where they warmed. That cold wind helping to offset insolation was impressive. Not saying we have the same here, but I'm not that concerned with the lower 1000ft like I am with sneaky warm 850 temps. YES. #allaboutthosemidlevels. I am more worried about the H85 level growing marginal mid-event. Those go, its raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I'm excited for my area south of Pike. Expecting 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm excited for my area south of Pike. Expecting 3-6 More reality testing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I agree with ORH and 40/70...no true concerns for NE Mass except if the lift doesn't develope as modeled. These late season events can often bring the moisture. PWATS have to be up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Let's put it this way, I feel less confident for accumulating snows along the coast for this event than I did for the blizzard. I just don't think the dynamics and rates are there to overcome marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'm excited for my area south of Pike. Expecting 3-6 If this doesn't tick a bit colder or south...3 might be high for your area. If we continue to cool on guidance a bit more..or this goes a tad south..then game on. Gotta hope those mid levels don't warm..if they do your toast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I agree with ORH and 40/70...no true concerns for NE Mass except if the lift doesn't develope as modeled. These late season events can often bring the moisture. PWATS have to be up there. Ray's hood got about 9 inches on April 28-29, 1987 and roughly the same from the May 1977 storm...it will snow there in late season events. It's typically right along the immediate shore that struggles a lot more very late...though of course, this isn't nearly as late as those events. I'd stay conservative until we get a better handle on the 850mb temps. Those are basically the total ballgame from ORH to Ray assuming the heavy precip is there which it looks like it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: More reality testing You've got that on your map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 This is definitely a situation where living here your whole life gives you a leg up with the forecasting. Anywhere that's like -2 to -4 C at 925 and is ripping high VVs is going to paste. That's just the way it is. The BL is only a concern if the omega isn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 16 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I agree with ORH and 40/70...no true concerns for NE Mass except if the lift doesn't develope as modeled. These late season events can often bring the moisture. PWATS have to be up there. Fair enough. But to clarify i never thought all of NE MA would be out of the game--all day my concerned areas have been pretty much in-line with the wsw areas (or lack thereof) already issued by the nws. I do, however think this is a non-event for Boston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ray's hood got about 9 inches on April 28-29, 1987 and roughly the same from the May 1977 storm...it will snow there in late season events. It's typically right along the immediate shore that struggles a lot more very late...though of course, this isn't nearly as late as those events. I'd stay conservative until we get a better handle on the 850mb temps. Those are basically the total ballgame from ORH to Ray assuming the heavy precip is there which it looks like it will be. Hell even Logan had snow in both events. Granted not much in the May 77 event, but several inches in the west Roxbury and Hyde park areas. Anyways hope 850 temps cool a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 11 minutes ago, MarkO said: Let's put it this way, I feel less confident for accumulating snows along the coast for this event than I did for the blizzard. I just don't think the dynamics and rates are there to overcome marginal temps. Well obviously, it's 2 weeks later...big difference between 3/14 and 3/31. No one thinks the airmass is as cold as the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 21z RPM for entertainment during dead time....really not that different than a lot of other guidance: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: FIRST CALL: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2017/03/little-bit-of-history-repeating.html FINAL CALL tmw night- Love the writing style you've developed Ray. Accessible and informative with a certain economy with words. It is understandable by the layman without being dumbed down. Well done and thanks for sharing your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Not much more wiggle room left, now it's all about micro analyzing mid level temps and precip rates next 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I had to laugh at Hunchies subtitle about nothing south of 90 and thought back to the Blizzard subtitle with the NNE crew jumping off bridges. Interesting GFS run, actually what a total weenie run to the end. Anyways let's see what shakes out. I certainly hope Lucy doesn't pull the football on some overzealous thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I had to laugh at Hunchies subtitle about nothing south of 90 and thought back to the Blizzard subtitle with the NNE crew jumping off bridges. Interesting GFS run, actually what a total weenie run to the end. Anyways let's see what shakes out. I certainly hope Lucy doesn't pull the football on some overzealous thoughts. Yeah... those are my thoughts exactly at this point. Little margin for error this time of year, and this is far from a slam dunk. Could end up as a lot of slop outside of the favored NNE area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2017 Author Share Posted March 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I had to laugh at Hunchies subtitle about nothing south of 90 and thought back to the Blizzard subtitle with the NNE crew jumping off bridges. Interesting GFS run, actually what a total weenie run to the end. Anyways let's see what shakes out. I certainly hope Lucy doesn't pull the football on some overzealous thoughts. ''Twas in jest....primarily at the Rev. I do think get gets a net gain. BOX seems to be underplaying this one on their maps and products. Probably wise for now, especially after going big earlier in the month and getting burned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: ''Twas in jest....primarily at the Rev. I do think get gets a net gain. BOX seems to be underplaying this one on their maps and products. Probably wise for now, especially after going big earlier in the month and getting burned That's the way it should be, Easier then backpedaling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Oh, and the pope vs the anti christ debates are a good laugh. Very informative and backed by anger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I expect to get the 0.1 I need to get to 57". Whether I actually get it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Expecting more mud in these parts. Mangled flakes and ice pellets looks promising for south of the Pike. Grass and tops of cars may accumulate an inch or two, but hard to see much else unless things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 8 minutes ago, White Rain said: The latest NAM run is a torch at 850. Still worried about mid level warmth shifting north and screwing the area last minute. Hopefully the cold wins out. That's def the concern at our general latitude...though the NAM itself is really irrelevant...it went torch/warmer at 12z and all the big boy guidance then promptly went colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Wagons north?. High is precarious might be too far NE. Powerful gulf inflow. Don't like what I see tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 I could see NE MA doing decent but I just have a bad feeling about the lower elevations otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Lol at 00z RPM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Nice cold tick and sag south of the goods into the ct hills on the rpm. I thought places like N Granby and Barkhamsted should do really well but some guidance seemed too warm there for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 The Nam better be off its rocker or I'm going to snap my shovel over my knee. Grr. It's keeps god darn snowing here. Added another 5" onto the tally today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 It's kinda wierd the warm thermal bias of the gfs is not biting from being the coldest solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 woah gfs goes nuts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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