OceanStWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 On 3/31/2017 at 11:50 PM, ryanjn said: Last storm the HRRR went pretty wild with a lot of 12-18in snow accum and a few higher spots just like it's doing now. So it was overdone and I think it's because ratios were so low from the wet compact nature of the snow. With this storm I don't think HRRR is going to take into account melting on contact and any wash away from rain or sleet mix. Expand Online they do have the variable density accumulation product that tries to mitigate that some. Pay attention near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 29.9F light snow, some blowing snow. 1.5" poor snow growth. Pretty meh so far up here. Nothing much under 1 mile vis. Temp has slowly been falling. Accumulating on all surfaces but just not much to show for 6 hours of snow.. It's got to pick up big time to see some of the totals the models have been showing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 3/31/2017 at 11:52 PM, OceanStWx said: Online they do have the variable density accumulation product that tries to mitigate that some. Pay attention near BOS. Expand Ahh I see. Never used that product. So instead of assuming 10:1 it takes into account the vertical profile and whatnot and adjusts accordingly. Looks like a general 4-8in for Bos on north through Merrimack Valley. Makes more sense than the 12-18in for the same area. I think 6-10 seems reasonable though for NE MA. (based on the var density from 15z through the full cycle) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:03 AM, ryanjn said: Ahh I see. Never used that product. So instead of assuming 10:1 it takes into account the vertical profile and whatnot and adjusts accordingly. Looks like a general 4-8in for Bos on north through Merrimack Valley. Makes more sense than the 12-18in for the same area. I think 6-10 seems reasonable though for NE MA. Expand I don't know the exact physics package, but there is an hourly snow ratio "grid" that it uses to accumulate snow. And it's not a Kuchera type ratio either, it uses vertical motion, RH, etc. That's also just a comparison of 07z storm totals, that's as far as the most recent HRRRX was out to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 3/31/2017 at 9:44 PM, CoastalWx said: GFS goes apesh*t in ern ma tomorrow morning. Expand I'm upping to 3-6" at BOS. originally 2". The prolonged sleet event gives me confidence. always rare. and if a ccb develops look out for april fools 2. (Likely jackpot interior) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:06 AM, sbos_wx said: I'm upping to 3-6" at BOS. originally 2". The prolonged sleet event gives me confidence. always rare. and if a ccb develops look out for april fools 2. (Likely jackpot interior) Expand This is an alcohol induced forecast. equivalent of me licking my finger and feeling the conditions, forecasting after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:05 AM, OceanStWx said: I don't know the exact physics package, but there is an hourly snow ratio "grid" that it uses to accumulate snow. And it's not a Kuchera type ratio either, it uses vertical motion, RH, etc. That's also just a comparison of 07z storm totals, that's as far as the most recent HRRRX was out to. Expand It says snow depth. Is it taking into account compaction..things like that? I always was curious if they read a little low because it says depth. Maybe it's just poor wording...I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:10 AM, CoastalWx said: It says snow depth. Is it taking into account compaction..things like that? I always was curious if they read a little low because it says depth. Maybe it's just poor wording...I dunno. Expand I always thought that too, but I just recently discovered it was an experimental snowfall accumulation product. But it does include some compaction of what has fallen too I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:07 AM, sbos_wx said: This is an alcohol induced forecast. equivalent of me licking my finger and feeling the conditions, forecasting after that. Expand In alcohol's defense, it can certainly allow one to make a forecast without overthinking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:05 AM, OceanStWx said: I don't know the exact physics package, but there is an hourly snow ratio "grid" that it uses to accumulate snow. And it's not a Kuchera type ratio either, it uses vertical motion, RH, etc. That's also just a comparison of 07z storm totals, that's as far as the most recent HRRRX was out to. Expand Interesting to watch the hrrr over the next couple of hours. it washes out a good deal of ema and has snow falling in these areas. we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:10 AM, CoastalWx said: It says snow depth. Is it taking into account compaction..things like that? I always was curious if they read a little low because it says depth. Maybe it's just poor wording...I dunno. Expand It never decreases throughout a cycle. I believe it's snow that has fallen, but if it all melts on the last few frames it won't decrease it. So I'm assuming compaction isn't taken into account either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:11 AM, OceanStWx said: I always thought that too, but I just recently discovered it was an experimental snowfall accumulation product. But it does include some compaction of what has fallen too I believe. Expand Are you talking about the HRRR still? The variable density product or all their snow accumulation products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:17 AM, ryanjn said: It never decreases throughout a cycle. I believe it's snow that has fallen, but if it all melts on the last few frames it won't decrease it. So I'm assuming compaction isn't taken into account either. Expand Checking the website it doesn't say anything about compaction, but does say it can vary from 5:1 to 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Hey guys, Lurker here since Eastern wx. First time posting, primarily because my obs might be helpful in this event. I have an admittedly cheap weather station so I won't be getting into tenths of degrees. Anyways wanted to say 'Hi' to Will, Scott, Ray, Tip, and of course Kevin. Jay, I lived in Southie till recently been wanting to say hello for awhile as well- keep up the writing. 32F and heavy sleet currently here in Lowell on a hill near the merrimack prob a couple hundred ft above seal level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:20 AM, OceanStWx said: Checking the website it doesn't say anything about compaction, but does say it can vary from 5:1 to 20:1. Expand Ok so maybe the wording threw me off. That's good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:25 AM, Supernovice said: Hey guys, Lurker here since Eastern wx. First time posting, primarily because my obs might be helpful in this event. I have an admittedly cheap weather station so I won't be getting into tenths of degrees. Anyways wanted to say 'Hi' to Will, Scott, Ray, Tip, and of course Kevin. Jay, I lived in Southie till recently been wanting to say hello for awhile as well- keep up the writing. 32F and heavy sleet currently here in Lowell on a hill near the merrimack prob a couple hundred ft above seal level. Expand Holla! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Pounding sleet. Should be good for retention junkies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:14 AM, ryanjn said: In alcohol's defense, it can certainly allow one to make a forecast without overthinking it. Expand Dr. McGuillicudy has a masters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:30 AM, sbos_wx said: Dr. McGuillicudy has a masters Expand Maybe even a PhD with a title like that lol. I'm not really sure what it's doing in N Andover, kinda a wet snow/IP mix. Just went outside to clear my car off and my footprints turn the snow to an insanely compact slush. If we thought the snow was wet last storm, I think this one's gonna top it in terms of cement quality. Prob have an inch here on the driveway. Maybe a tad more on grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:36 AM, ryanjn said: Maybe even a PhD with a title like that lol. I'm not really sure what it's doing in N Andover, kinda a wet snow/IP mix. Just went outside to clear my car off and my footprints turn the snow to an insanely compact slush. If we thought the snow was wet last storm, I think this one's gonna top it in terms of cement quality. Prob have an inch here on the driveway. Maybe a tad more on grass. Expand I would love to be in that location right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanjn Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:39 AM, sbos_wx said: I would love to be in that location right now Expand Ya if the NAM or RUC know what they're talking about it's gonna be pretty good up this way. It's kind of odd seeing western areas all rain while Essex County still is getting frozen precip. I think most of our snow falls tomorrow late morning and early afternoon though. I don't think we get too much accumulation tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:25 AM, Supernovice said: Hey guys, Lurker here since Eastern wx. First time posting, primarily because my obs might be helpful in this event. I have an admittedly cheap weather station so I won't be getting into tenths of degrees. Anyways wanted to say 'Hi' to Will, Scott, Ray, Tip, and of course Kevin. Jay, I lived in Southie till recently been wanting to say hello for awhile as well- keep up the writing. 32F and heavy sleet currently here in Lowell on a hill near the merrimack prob a couple hundred ft above seal level. Expand Lol. What up dude or ette. Please post more often. Hope you do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supernovice Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Thanks Rev. A dude here, so no need to worry about any "man snow" issues. Ha. sorry if this isn't the place for idle talk. I'll move to the obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 Lol. NsfwSent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:30 AM, sbos_wx said: Dr. McGuillicudy has a masters Expand Wouldn't he have a PhD too? Seems like storm is gonna bust a bit low. Only NAM was predicting this much sleet for this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 3/31/2017 at 11:30 PM, educate said: Yeah, it seems to have come to a full stop 10 miles sw of Lowell. s-/s in andover now. Expand It was primarily sleet with a bit of snow mixed when I left Andover an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:25 AM, Supernovice said: Hey guys, Lurker here since Eastern wx. First time posting, primarily because my obs might be helpful in this event. I have an admittedly cheap weather station so I won't be getting into tenths of degrees. Anyways wanted to say 'Hi' to Will, Scott, Ray, Tip, and of course Kevin. Jay, I lived in Southie till recently been wanting to say hello for awhile as well- keep up the writing. 32F and heavy sleet currently here in Lowell on a hill near the merrimack prob a couple hundred ft above seal level. Expand Welcome! I forget that many people just hang out here w/o posting. Yeah, I dig the posts from all those folks you mentioned too, plus a bunch of others. Although today was pretty boring until the sleet started it is good fun to have late-season weather excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 1:05 AM, Professional Lurker said: Lol. Nsfw Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk I plow snow so i'm lmao at this. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 12:25 AM, Supernovice said: Hey guys, Lurker here since Eastern wx. First time posting, primarily because my obs might be helpful in this event. I have an admittedly cheap weather station so I won't be getting into tenths of degrees. Anyways wanted to say 'Hi' to Will, Scott, Ray, Tip, and of course Kevin. Jay, I lived in Southie till recently been wanting to say hello for awhile as well- keep up the writing. 32F and heavy sleet currently here in Lowell on a hill near the merrimack prob a couple hundred ft above seal level. Expand Hey man, post more...you're right up the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 On 4/1/2017 at 1:51 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Welcome! I forget that many people just hang out here w/o posting. Yeah, I dig the posts from all those folks you mentioned too, plus a bunch of others. Although today was pretty boring until the sleet started it is good fun to have late-season weather excitement. Expand My late dad use to always tell me, people are always watching....even if no one is around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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