North Balti Zen Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Figure it's time to start this thread, for those interested in posting on possible set-ups in medium and long-range for interesting spring weather. Or even to track chances at sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 28, 2017 Author Share Posted March 28, 2017 Looking like Opening Day might escape rain, now, which is awesome, but rest of that week looks potentially rainy, which is also awesome because we need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Looks like both the gefs and eps forecasting around 2-5" of precip over the next two weeks. As an avid river fisherman, this forecast sucks. High and muddy all spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 True, but the area sure does need the rain i general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Over/under on 3 pages in this thread at the end of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Over/under on 3 pages in this thread at the end of the month? Depends if there's a threat of wet snow flurries or not. Long range looks pretty typical with nothing anomalous of note. Ups and downs and rains and drys and weeds and pollens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 29, 2017 Author Share Posted March 29, 2017 Maybe we get a set-up for storms that draws some medium range chatter. We can also make this an April/May thread medium-long range thread if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 12 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Maybe we get a set-up for storms that draws some medium range chatter. We can also make this an April/May April-Oct thread medium-long range thread if need be. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 Meh-so-scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 29, 2017 Share Posted March 29, 2017 I'm not expecting much if any hearty severe wx until May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12 hours ago, losetoa6 said: 18z gefs is Uber wet... Eps mean precip is over 3.5" too. Couple 2 week periods like that and swarms of mosquitos are going to show up on lwx radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 This spring has been written on the wall for some time now. If it isn't below normal temps, I'll be stunned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 20 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I'm not expecting much if any hearty severe wx until May. SPC did mention our region Day 7 in their Days 4-8 OTLK fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 1 hour ago, yoda said: SPC did mention our region Day 7 in their Days 4-8 OTLK fwiw Those day 4-8 risks for us tend to bust - Like Eskimo Joe says...I'd rather have a day 2 marginal that evolves into a day 1 1300z moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Eps mean precip is over 3.5" too. Couple 2 week periods like that and swarms of mosquitos are going to show up on lwx radar. what am i suppose to do with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ji said: what am i suppose to do with this? Cut off lows and rain in the 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 There has got to me some mountain snow thereSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 30, 2017 Share Posted March 30, 2017 Just put my first batch of dunkers (larvacide) in my "non tidal protected wetland" (low spot back in the woods). Not much water there now- well drier than normal. Looks like that may change in the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 ↑ is horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Somewhat favorable teleconnections are back! NCEP NAO doesn't quite drop below zero, but the AO crashes in the longer range. Why am I allowed 10kb images? darn! ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Major kick in the groin March pattern, I could have had another January 2014 if it was winter. ^ Tax day storm FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 1, 2017 Share Posted April 1, 2017 10 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Definitely a period to watch from day 7 -15 . Looks like pretty anomalous 500 mb pattern setting up. Looking through similar patterns in April ....April 19, 1983 sticks out looking at 500mb or even April 9, 1996..fwiw ( where's PSU, CHILL , SHOWME hiding Day 7 gefs below I have been keeping a casual eye on this period but more so from habit then of having any real expectations. Though the models have been teasing us on and off with decent lows in our general region with 850's somewhat cooperating the problem is the surface. With the 850's marginal (a few degrees below freezing at the best) any hope of them overcoming the torching surface are very slim. Short of a low bombing and stacking in our general region or temps verifying 10, if not 15, degrees colder then now shown I have very little hope that we see anything of consequence except for maybe some stray flakes in the air. Now if this was a month earlier and we weren't fighting April climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted April 2, 2017 Share Posted April 2, 2017 The mountains in Garrett County look to do well on Friday into Saturday with the storm. And I just put out the deck furniture this morning at the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted April 10, 2017 Share Posted April 10, 2017 Active Atlantic season during nino? MDR sstas are on the rise never stood a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Hi all, Im attending a wedding in VA Beach this Saturday April 22nd. Can someone tell me what the Euro is showing for Friday and Saturday afternoon. Im aware that the GFS looks like mid 60s and possibly wet but at first glance the Euro looks much warmer? Can anyone help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 6 hours ago, ryanconway63 said: Hi all, Im attending a wedding in VA Beach this Saturday April 22nd. Can someone tell me what the Euro is showing for Friday and Saturday afternoon. Im aware that the GFS looks like mid 60s and possibly wet but at first glance the Euro looks much warmer? Can anyone help? 12z has mid 70's, cloudy, and some showers. Heavier precip is just to the west during the afternoon. Probably convective so qpf panels will be jumpy run over run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Wonder when DCA, BWI and IAD hit their first 90 of the season. Figure DCA hits it in mid May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 I'm really bored by this weather. Give me some higher end severe days to track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 44 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I'm really bored by this weather. Give me some higher end severe days to track... Surprise BULLETIN Subtropical Depression One Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012017 1100 AM AST Wed Apr 19 2017 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 40.9W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression One was located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 40.9 West. The subtropical depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A gradual turn to the north is expected tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and the subtropical depression is forecast to become absorbed by a large extratropical low on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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