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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2017 OBS Thread


Birds~69

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Got just over an inch (1.05") yesterday and hit 87F as a high today (so far).  Currently 85F w/74F dp, with the sun popping in and out of some dark clouds that have been dropping some splats.  Looks like a few miles NE of me is getting hit with some isolated pop-ups, all the way up to around Willow Grove.

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best severe threat we be had all year. even with early initiation likely we should see multiple rounds of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. almost all the convective models have a strong squall line rip through this afternoon with broken cells after that through the evening. timing and shear are just about perfect for this area. spc with an enh risk right now but we may see a mod upgrade at noon depending on how much instability we have by then and if storms have initiated by then. the later we can hold off initiation the stronger the severe threat becomes but with a weak cap holding that off until 1pm would be a success. should be a great day of storms.

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10 minutes ago, Newman said:

Some individual cells look to be popping up ahead of the main line. Hopefully we get some nice storms haven't had any in a while

Severe thunderstorm watch just lofted.  I got a new weather radio about a month ago and finally got to be near it when it activated with a tone, LED lit for "watch", and an audio broadcast & text scroll of the watch (don't have the siren feature on).

Currently 84F here and mostly cloudy.

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looking at the visible satellite it looks like some cells want to pop in s jersey/n Delaware out ahead of the main line and move along the delware river. will be interesting to see if any get their act together. the main line out to the west looks to really be ramping up. with ml cape above 1500 and approaching 2000 in spots along with the enhanced shear coming in the next few hours, it should continue to intensify. could be a nasty commute home.

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I'm pretty surprised that south jersey was left out of the watch despite many areas remaining in the enhanced risk area. maybe just waiting to see how the squall line holds together before pulling the trigger. 

 

cell in York county needs a tornado warning imo. has a couplet that has been getting more organized with each frame and looks to be right moving.

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I'm pretty surprised that south jersey was left out of the watch despite many areas remaining in the enhanced risk area. maybe just waiting to see how the squall line holds together before pulling the trigger. 

 

cell in York county needs a tornado warning imo. has a couplet that has been getting more organized with each frame and looks to be right moving.

You've been answered lol

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look for the line to continue to intensify..

 

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rain, frequent cloud to
   ground lightning and increasing (potentially damaging) strong wind
   gusts may impact much of the Northeast urban corridor (DC to New
   York) by 3-5 PM EDT.

   DISCUSSION...Continuing insolation has warmed surface temperatures
   to around 90F through much of the urban corridor from Washington
   D.C./Baltimore through Philadelphia and New York City.  This is
   contributing to sizable CAPE on the order of 2000 J/kg, ahead of
   evolving upstream thunderstorm activity which continues to gradually
   organize and intensify.

   Through 20-21Z, a consolidating and strengthening cold pool
   associated with the evolving convective system seems likely to surge
   northeastward and eastward into the urban corridor, accompanied by
   increasingly widespread (and potentially damaging) surface gusts on
   its leading edge.  This may be enhanced as convection encounters
   stronger southerly ambient low-level wind fields, as suggested by
   the latest Rapid Refresh, on the order of 40+ kt.
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