Severe weather risk 3-28 and 3-29 2017

[JoMo]

1 hour ago, Calderon said:

I wouldn't discount it because it very well may've been a spin-up there in the MCV. Couplets were popping for about 2-3 scans several times in the area.

OK Mesonet:

"The 95mph 10-meter gust at El Reno is legitimate. The site also measured 79 mph @ 2 meters as bow & embedded couplet passed over site."

[lookingnorth]

No severe weather here, but a nice thunderstorm is ongoing. I think I heard hail hitting the windows for a minute.

[Chinook]

For tomorrow, the NAM keeps some 2000 J/kg of CAPE into Louisiana at 1:00AM (06z). A small part of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and perhaps a bit of Missouri will have chances for severe weather. There are favorable parameters for tornadoes in Louisiana for over 6 hours, although not a lot of turning winds below 3km.

[Chargers09]

Tornado warning near McLaughlin afb 

[andyhb]

23 minutes ago, Chargers09 said:

Tornado warning near McLaughlin afb 

Debris signature with that.

[Quincy]

Captured a brief tornado about eight miles WSW of Abilene, TX at 4:54 Tuesday afternoon:

After that, the only other thing of interest was finding some tennis ball sized hail, just south of Goree, TX. My car was getting hit by sporadic golf/ping pong balls and I abruptly turned around to avoid anything larger. After getting out of my car, I saw a few widely scattered hailstones that were close to the size of tennis balls.

[monsoonman1]

Day 2 MDT for Mid-South, with strong tornadoes mentioned.

[nwohweather]

Day 2 MDT for Mid-South, with strong tornadoes mentioned.

Damn if this was gonna be on Friday I'd absolutely chase

[1900hurricane]

I think I'll chase locally today. Not sure how exciting things are going to be around SE TX, but I'm already here and get done with everything by 11 am today, so I might as well.

[monsoonman1]

New day 1 outlook has a 10% hatched tornado area for much of AR and S MO.

[Jim Martin]

24 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said:

New day 1 outlook has a 10% hatched tornado area for much of AR and S MO.

 

[WhiteoutWX]

8 hours ago, monsoonman1 said:

Day 2 MDT for Mid-South, with strong tornadoes mentioned.

Finally maybe a target for the Vortex SE field campaign, though the greater threat looks to be displaced a little west of their range. 

[Santa Clause]

Wow, pretty large hatched TOR. 

[Upper Level LOL]

Now I'm not exactly clear on what metrics are used in deciding what category to put on areas in the outlook, but it seems like a hatched tornado and a hatched hail risk for the same area of western AR warrants an upgrade to moderate.

 

 

edit: \/\/\/\/\/ thank you! I learned something today. Appreciate it.

[SmokeEater]

Now I'm not exactly clear on what metrics are used in deciding what category to put on areas in the outlook, but it seems like a hatched tornado and a hatched hail risk for the same area of western AR warrants an upgrade to moderate.

Would have to be 45% hatched hail or 15% hatched tornado. Almost positive about the tor prob, but I know the 45% hail prob is moderate.

[Santa Clause]

Thanks guys, wondered that myself. Guys like you, Chinook, Stebo, Andy, Jim M 1900 and too many others to name make this place very interesting and informative. 

[jojo762]

For anybody wondering about the SPC severe-probabilities and what category of risk they convert too. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_probotlk_info.html Just scroll down some and they have a conversion table.

[jojo762]

12Z NSSL-WRF-ARW seems to like SW MO/NW AR later today to have numerous discrete/semi-discrete supercells and storm/supercell clusters... Would not be too surprised to see the SPC introduce a MDT risk for large hail and/or tornadoes across this region at 1630Z. 14Z HRRR generally likes the same area, albeit with much less convection than the NSSL-WRF.

Already seeing some nice clearing in this area, and everywhere behind the left over convective debris from the line overnight. Should see some solid moisture return into this area and areas northward over the next few hours... Nice pool of mid-upper 60s dewpoints over LA and southeastern TX.

[Calderon]

There was significant damage in Rockwall, TX last night from an extreme downburst, potential brief spin-up.

[jojo762]

SPC is nearly 15 minutes late on their 1630Z outlook. hmm....

[yoda]

1630 OTLK remains with enhanced risk... no mod risk... hatched hail removed from 1630 OTLK

[pbrussell]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

1630 OTLK remains with enhanced risk... no mod risk

Hmm. I still show the 1300. Must need to be special to get the 1630

[yoda]

Just now, pbrussell said:

Hmm. I still show the 1300. Must need to be special to get the 1630

You can get the SPC stuff a bit faster here -- http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/

[JMT417]

1 minute ago, pbrussell said:

Hmm. I still show the 1300. Must need to be special to get the 1630

Maybe they believe in recycling.

 

[Santa Clause]

Probably a good call with so many variables, looking at last few days.

[weatherextreme]

34 minutes ago, Calderon said:

There was significant damage in Rockwall, TX last night from an extreme downburst, potential brief spin-up.

 

This was posted on Steve McCauley facebook from a poster in Rockwall

 

 

 

 

 

[weatherextreme]

Found this one from a different weather site

 

 

[David Reimer]

The Rockwall structure damage, shown in several pictures above, was caused by 90-95 MPH straight-line winds. No tornadic damage signatures located. 

[Zeromus-X]

I'm not sure if anything crazy happened recently near Erick OK but there are three semis way off the side of the road over the course of about a half mile, one which is on its side. Calm right now, just odd to pass. 

[jojo762]

 Mesoscale Discussion 0369
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0251 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...Southwest
   Missouri...Southeast Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 291951Z - 292215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop over the next
   couple of hours across southeast Kansas, far northeast Oklahoma,
   northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri. Initially, wind damage
   and isolated large hail will be possible as cells strengthen but a
   tornado threat could develop by late afternoon. WW issuance will
   likely be needed across the region, potentially by 21Z.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low over
   southeast Kansas with a warm front extending east southeastward from
   the low across southwest Missouri. A corridor of low-level moisture
   exists along the warm front where surface dewpoints are near 60 F.
   Surface warming has been slow today along and south of the front but
   RAP data suggests that instability has started to increase more over
   the last hour or so. MLCAPE values are now estimated to be
   approaching 500 J/kg across the MCD area. In addition, low-level
   convergence has increased over the last couple of hours along the
   warm front which has resulted in convective initiation across
   east-central Kansas. Other storms are expected to initiate along the
   warm front in southern Missouri and further south in northwest
   Arkansas over the next hour or two.

   Concerning the environment, a 70 to 85 kt mid-level jet is analyzed
   across eastern Oklahoma with the exit region into far southeast
   Kansas. This feature was enhancing lift and creating strong
   deep-layer shear which will be favorable for severe storm
   development. Initially, short line segments and discrete cell
   clusters may produce isolated damaging wind gusts and hail. As cells
   mature late this afternoon, supercells with a tornado threat should
   develop especially with storms that can interact with the warm front
   in southwest Missouri. A severe threat is also possible southward
   across far northeastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas
   especially as lift increases due to a strengthening low-level jet.

   ..Broyles.. 03/29/2017