WhiteoutWX Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Pronounced clearing on satellite north of the warm front. Should allow it to start lifting northward towards or north of the red river over the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Looks like spc stays close to same in their update. Major hail threats and early narrow window for TOR development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 More than a narrow window imo. Narrow for discrete/semi-discrete, but could see embeddded tors once upscale growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Just now, CGChaser said: More than a narrow window imo. Narrow for discrete/semi-discrete, but could see embeddded tors once upscale growth. Agreed. Even the latest SPC outlook bumped the 5% tor probability all the way down to S TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 14 minutes ago, CGChaser said: More than a narrow window imo. Narrow for discrete/semi-discrete, but could see embeddded tors once upscale growth. I should've been more clear, was referring to clean, discrete cells. The threat for signups and imbedded rotations goes well into late afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Great lapse rates and relatively low LCL's over the targeted moderate risk area for Tuesday. Will have to see if other parameters come together and the WF lifts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Storm firing south of Midland at present on dryline with 82/42 readings. Dryline bulge becoming apparent on Midland radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 I get that it's elevated, but that's a hell of a lot of strong low level rotation on that cell near Lubbock. It's right next to the radar site and has lots of pretty colors in its velocity scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Hail up to 3 1/2" with tops to 55,000 feet expected in upcoming new svr watch in TX. This is still March, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Yeah, I was gonna mention that. Latest warning states tornado possible but that's a heck of a lot of rotation to not be t warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Damn, some of these storms have ridiculous top levels, and the event is just getting started! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Aside from any discrete/semi-discrete cells, concerned for embedded tors with initial line through midnight in central OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Storms in West Texas appear to look somewhat lined up already, though that may change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 I'm thinking we may need a tor warning on some of these cells. Those rotation signatures are getting pretty tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, pbrussell said: I'm thinking we may need a tor warning on some of these cells. Those rotation signatures are getting pretty tight. Some rotation SW of Spur, but seems to be elevated for the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: Some pretty good rotation SW of Spur, but seems to be elevated for the moment. Tops are pretty big on that storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 7 minutes ago, CGChaser said: Aside from any discrete/semi-discrete cells, concerned for embedded tors with initial line through midnight in central OK. Last few HRRR runs have definitely looked a bit concerning along and east of 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 NNE anvils that I've been around haven't seemed to do too well for creating decent tornaoes... Or am I making that up? Seems storms do better with a more Northeasterly direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Just now, WhiteoutWX said: Last few HRRR runs have definitely looked a bit concerning along and east of 44 I can't see much of a reason there wouldn't be some rotation, especially on tail-end of line as HRRR is showing. winds are easterly ahead of front with impressive low-level curvature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Guess folks at NWS decided a Tor warning needed to be issued after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 warm front making good progress north OKC metro may have the warm front in the area when storms arive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Very strong helicity values presently in the panhandles of OK and TX per SPC meso page edging southward with successive runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 This... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Confirmed TOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Tight rotation near Spur, TX. No warning yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 I'm curious to see what this lone supercell will do north of San Angelo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Seems like the line is breaking up some. The result is that these storms are becoming more cellular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Reports of a tornado west of Spur, TX a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 12 minutes ago, pbrussell said: I'm curious to see what this lone supercell will do north of San Angelo. Left split....often indicative of large hail to come in the left split cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted March 28, 2017 Share Posted March 28, 2017 Looks like a left split is happening with the storm south of Abilene. If we get a right mover and it continues to track toward Abilene, we could have trouble. HRRR shows a pretty gnarly environment there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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