OUGrad05 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: On a localized level, yes. Should be temporary though assuming no additional development in the near term. We're not talking about a well organized MCS throwing down a significant cold pool. I definitely agree with you on that. My point is on days like today it doesn't take a lot to shift the balance...South of OKC looks pretty good still, and I suspect you and Stebo are right that things will be ok, but I'm skeptical because I've seen similar play out so many times where SPC keeps saying its coming and then the look back the next day the convection stabilized things just enough to keep a lid on things. I'm a bit of a debbie downer after last year I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: I definitely agree with you on that. My point is on days like today it doesn't take a lot to shift the balance...South of OKC looks pretty good still, and I suspect you and Stebo are right that things will be ok, but I'm skeptical because I've seen similar play out so many times where SPC keeps saying its coming and then the look back the next day the convection stabilized things just enough to keep a lid on things. I'm a bit of a debbie downer after last year I guess. Just don't think it will be difficult to recover from this, given the small scale and decent S/SE low level flow on the larger scale. If anything, I'd be a little more concerned about getting sufficient dews into OKC but models seem to be in agreement on a substantial increase with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Moisture return starting to look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 DFW plans to monitor Gainesville TX area for svr initiation between 4-5 p.m. CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 T/Td spreads are definitely increasing with the diurnal heating (into the 80s S of the Red) mixing the relatively shallow BL moisture. At least there is actually some richer 850 mb moisture closer to the dryline, but probably going to need a secondary surge later on with the LLJ intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0335 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017 Areas affected...Central/Northeast OK...North-Central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 261949Z - 262115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes and very large hail, are expected across portions of central OK and north-central TX this afternoon and evening. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 21Z. DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows a low centered just northwest of GAG with a dryline arcing southeastward to just west of CSM and then southwestward through FDR (in southwest OK) and ABI (in the low rolling plains of TX). A warm front also extends from this low eastward/southeastward from GAG to END to CUH and on into southeast OK. Low-level moisture continues to advect northward in the warm sector between the dryline and warm front, with 60 degree F dewpoints as far north as Love, Carter, and Marshall counties in far south-central OK. Mid-50 degree F dewpoints extend as far north as Caddo, Grady, and McClain counties. Given the filtered sun across the region, some modest mixing is possible but dewpoints are still expected to range from the mid-50s to low 60s from central OK southward into north-central TX. This low-level moisture coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate instability (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by 21Z ahead of the approaching dryline. Visible satellite imagery continues to show agitated cumulus beneath the mid/high-level cloud band with some towering cumulus also noted near the western edge of the cloud band, close to current position of the dryline. The western edge of the cloud band also likely represents the leading edge of strong forcing for ascent associated with the approaching shortwave trough. As such, the current thinking is that convective initiation will occur as the dryline and stronger forcing for ascent interacts with the destabilizing airmass across central OK around 21Z. Favorable kinematic profiles characterized by 0-6 km bulk shear near 50 kt will support quick storm organization, resulting in supercells capable of all severe hazards including tornadoes. Additionally, low-level jet increase around 00Z will lengthen hodographs in the presence of ongoing storms, resulting in a locally higher threat for tornadoes from south-central OK into northern portions of north-central TX. Somewhat different scenario will lead to the chance of a few tornadoes farther north within the marginally moist environment across north-central OK and possibly into far south-central KS. Here, some severe threat, including tornadoes, is possible as storms interact with the warm front draped across the region. ..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/26/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 hoooo boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 1 minute ago, Upper Level LOL said: hoooo boy Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Was just about to say that the KTLX VAD was highly impressive given that its only 20Z... Definitely is much better looking than what 18Z HRRR is showing in soundings for KOUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 SPC expanded 10% TOR and MDT risk a tad further south into Texas with the 20Z update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 hoooo boy WowSent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Looking like today may over preform with tornadoes, especially in Red River region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Looking like the tornado watch forthcoming will be on the higher end of the scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Special 19Z OUN sounding was also pretty impressive, with its wind field at least, moisture axis obviously isn't that far east yet. 0-3KM SRH of 426 m2/s2 with 45kts of 0-3km shear and 0-6KM shear of 55kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roy Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Dew point after dropping a bit is back up to 60 IMBY north DFW. Decent wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Special 19Z OUN sounding was also pretty impressive, with its wind field at least, moisture axis obviously isn't that far east yet. 0-3KM SRH of 426 m2/s2 with 45kts of 0-3km shear and 0-6KM shear of 55kts. Shear looks good, lapse rates maybe on the weaker sideSent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, OUGrad05 said: Shear looks good, lapse rates maybe on the weaker side Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Those will improve with eastward extent with height falls through late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Those will improve with eastward extent with height falls through late afternoon. What app are you using or are you just using browser to access SPC?Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 There's kind of an odd east-west oriented severe thunderstorm watch for Kansas, but there's not much east-west extent to the sub-severe storms right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Current dryline setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 OUN, TSA, and FWD are currently in a conference call with SPC coordinating the tornado watch... expected to be out until 11. Interested to see what the probs end up being, going to be a struggle between meh moisture and impressive low-level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Here's (some of) the 20Z FWD sounding. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 FWIW, windshift is still displaced from the dryline, currently sitting in the TX PH... No convergence really along DL, all divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 50/30 tor watch out for the I-35 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, 1900hurricane said: Here's (some of) the 20Z FWD sounding. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1900Hurricane, not to be annoying or anything, but that image is not showing up in my browser. You may want to check that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, Chinook said: 1900Hurricane, not to be annoying or anything, but that image is not showing up in my browser. You may want to check that. No worries, mobile was acting goofy for me. I had to pull out the laptop to fix it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 looks like we have initiation just SW of velma. ET of 38kft attm with a couple of other cells trying to pop near it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 Current radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted March 26, 2017 Share Posted March 26, 2017 17 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: looks like we have initiation just SW of velma. ET of 38kft attm with a couple of other cells trying to pop near it. And now it's dropping half dollar-sized hail and has 60 mph winds. That was fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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