NNE Spring Thread

[Hitman]

I don't know from stats, but felt like a b+/a- winter for me.  I got my 12 powder days (I know that may pale in comparison to some of you, but no small feat for living 30 miles from NYC while fully employed).  The weather was active so there was some good events to track making it interesting.  It was a long duration season with good snow in early December through late march/early April.  Only negatives were the 2 thaw periods, but in my mind that's almost inevitable in the northeast.  2 seasons ago avoided the thaws but saw much lower snowfall.  Plus, eyewall finally got off the schneid, so that's worth a extra notch!

 

[adk]

Winter? Schminter....yesterday in the CPV was   ...sun came out and temps were near 80F in BTV.  

 

 

[adk]

12 hours ago, Hitman said:

I don't know from stats, but felt like a b+/a- winter for me.  I got my 12 powder days (I know that may pale in comparison to some of you, but no small feat for living 30 miles from NYC while fully employed).  The weather was active so there was some good events to track making it interesting.  It was a long duration season with good snow in early December through late march/early April.  Only negatives were the 2 thaw periods, but in my mind that's almost inevitable in the northeast.  2 seasons ago avoided the thaws but saw much lower snowfall.  Plus, eyewall finally got off the schneid, so that's worth a extra notch!

 

2014-2015 was a better winter for skiing IMO.  

Depths didn't get as high but the 3" refresher storms were pretty much non-stop from mid jan to the end of feb.  The arctic temps kept the snow great and the crowds down too....

 

[mreaves]

10 minutes ago, adk said:

Winter? Schminter....yesterday in the CPV was   ...sun came out and temps were near 80F in BTV.  

 

 

I saw 84° on the car thermo somewhere between Littleton and Woodsville, NH

[Hitman]

35 minutes ago, adk said:

2014-2015 was a better winter for skiing IMO.  

Depths didn't get as high but the 3" refresher storms were pretty much non-stop from mid jan to the end of feb.  The arctic temps kept the snow great and the crowds down too....

 

maybe better skiing, but what I was trying to get at was that it was less interesting/exciting weather tracking.  This season kept the audience.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, adk said:

2014-2015 was a better winter for skiing IMO.  

Depths didn't get as high but the 3" refresher storms were pretty much non-stop from mid jan to the end of feb.  The arctic temps kept the snow great and the crowds down too....

 

I'm a snow snob... I want flakes to fall and I want a lot of them.

We had over 100" less in 2014-2015... there were so many more powder days this season, and so many REAL deep days.  Like western powder deep days.

Forget 3" refresher storms, this winter had 109" of refreshes fall every day from mid-January through mid-February.  Maybe it was the fact that you had to be there every day to really get the full effect?  And we didn't have to deal with -30F for a whole month either. 

This winter the 3" refreshes were 6", lol. 

Edit: I'm looking back through the snow tally and the refresher storms weren't really that non-stop.  It was pretty darn dry and cold in February and March.  Not compared to some of the runs we had this winter.  And it seems like every comment I have in my daily comments is "-50 wind chills" or "frigid" or "brutal" "wind scoured at -30F".  When this season's comments are "epic powder day" "more snow" "keeps snowing", lol.  I could probably come up with a seasonal index based on the terms I put in the comments section of my tally's/notes.

 

 

[powderfreak]

I know we've been locally snowy but also have preserved it quite well.

I was shocked when someone showed me the west side of RT 108 was down to pavement on the Smuggs side.

Here I've still got 12" at the stake not far from the closure gate and the Stowe side of the road is solidly covered.

Photo from yesterday after we lost a ton in the thunderstorms.

 

This was two days ago from Smuggs side at the same elevation (their gate is at 1,600ft, about 100ft higher than ours).

 

[dendrite]

Had a bear rip the feeder pole down this past weekend. Ironically that night I was talking about bringing the feeders in again. Oops. One night too late. I think this is my earliest bear destruction. Next year the feeders come in when the depth reaches 0".

[powderfreak]

Just now, dendrite said:

Had a bear rip the feeder pole down this past weekend. Ironically that night I was talking about bringing the feeders in again. Oops. One night too late. I think this is my earliest bear destruction. Next year the feeders come in when the depth reaches 0".

Ha funny, my buddy just sent me a picture of his feeder that was destroyed last night.  Bear bent it in two and also destroyed his compost bin which sounds like quite the mess, lol.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Ha funny, my buddy just sent me a picture of his feeder that was destroyed last night.  Bear bent it in two and also destroyed his compost bin which sounds like quite the mess, lol.

Last year I was able to bend the pole back up and get another season out of it. This year, no luck. I had t break off the bottom 2ft that was in the ground. Now it's an 8ft pole wih 6ft out of the ground. Hopefully the baffle is still high enough to keep the pesky red squirrels off. As long as it stays away from the coop I'm okay with it. I've been leaving feed in there at night which is probably a no-no.

Last year we had a bear take our trash down into the back woods. We found some of the bags months later. That was n-a-s-t-y.

[powderfreak]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Last year I was able to bend the pole back up and get another season out of it. This year, no luck. I had t break off the bottom 2ft that was in the ground. Now it's an 8ft pole wih 6ft out of the ground. Hopefully the baffle is still high enough to keep the pesky red squirrels off. As long as it stays away from the coop I'm okay with it. I've been leaving feed in there at night which is probably a no-no.

Last year we had a bear take our trash down into the back woods. We found some of the bags months later. That was n-a-s-t-y.

Would the bears eat the chickens or just go after the feed?  Or would they be opportunistic in a confined space?

I know my marketing colleague up here lost a bunch of chickens last summer (only two of like 8 survived) from either a bear or coyote attack...though I want to say it was a bear.  I just know they aren't big meat eaters.

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Would the bears eat the chickens or just go after the feed?  Or would they be opportunistic in a confined space?

I know my marketing colleague up here lost a bunch of chickens last summer (only two of like 8 survived) from either a bear or coyote attack...though I want to say it was a bear.  I just know they aren't big meat eaters.

I think they're more attracted to the feed, but like you said, they're opportunistic. They'll eat/kill some birds for the heck of it too. I keep them locked up at night and the coop is elevated 2.5-3ft off the ground so that keeps most predators and rodents out. I doubt a bear could climb up and in through my coop windows. I probably need a more secure door than what I have now. It's just a swiveling piece of 2x4 that locks the door in place right now. A standing bear could probably fumble around with the opening, knock it loose, and get the door open.

[Skivt2]

Yesterday afternoon there was a large Black Bear on Royal Flush in the canyon at killington feeding while everyone was skiing by 50 yards away from it.  K lost a lot of snow and the natural trails are on their way out but the glacier is huge.  We will be skiing on Memorial Day I think.

[powderfreak]

Yeah we had two bear sitings on ski terrain in the past week (possibly the same bear moving through the resort).  They are starting to move around again.  

[J.Spin]

On ‎4‎/‎15‎/‎2017 at 5:40 PM, powderfreak said:

Outside of the Maine synoptic snow and the N VT upslope, it was still pretty darn good for snowfall.  Looking at CoCoRAHS and general climo, I'd say most look to be decently above normal for snowfall this season.  I mean, J.Spin still had 186" of snowfall so far this season and is only 17" away from his 2007-08 total.  Cabot, VT east of here and north of Montpelier had over 200" this winter based on CoCoRAHS.  That's pretty damn big for outside the upslope zone.  The northeast Kingdom did really well too, Lyndonville event jacked a couple times.  It was a big winter for Burke Mountain, one of their bests since 2000 as well and they aren't an upslope mountain.

I would agree the temperatures played the role of making it maybe seem less snowy?  1,500ft and higher can survive and keep snow at +8 in the winter...but below 1,000ft not so much I guess.  It snowed a lot though in most areas looking at the end of the season totals.

But I wouldn't say the above normal snowfall was pretty localized over here.  It was widespread when you plot it. 

 

On your final question there, I certainly think it was a substantial component.  Snow-depth days are one of the best objective ways to assess the effect of temperatures on the snowpack, and when the stats say SDD are only 60-70% of average and in the bottom 30% of seasons, that’s notable.  It’s even more striking to think that such numbers were achieved in a solidly above average snowfall season.  To get that weird combination tells you that there must have been some serious melting going on at times.

 

Nice work assessing the more widespread snowfall numbers around here – I wouldn’t have necessarily guessed that so much of the area did so well.

 

I also hadn’t though too much about how close this season was getting to 2007-2008 with respect to snowfall at our site.  But, that gap is actually pretty notable when one looks at the stats – it means passing the +1 S.D. mark.  With respect to snowfall and “seasonal grades”, 2007-2008, at +1.33 S.D., has to sit at a solid A, and I think 2010-2011 at +1.17 S.D. is probably an A-/A.  But I’m still going B+/A- for this season (+0.90 S.D.) unless it breaks that +1 S.D. 190” barrier, at which point I’d be willing to lock in the A-.

 

There’s no doubt that 2016-2017 now sits among the “top dogs” of the past decade with respect to snowfall; here’s how things stand in the hierarchy as of today:

 

1.  2007-2008:  203.2” (+1.33 S.D.)

2.  2010-2011:  197.0” (+1.17 S.D.)

3.  2016-2017:  186.5” (+0.90 S.D.)

4.  2008-2009:  179.4” (+0.72 S.D.)

 

But, those certainly can’t all be “A” seasons with respect to snowfall.  With only a decade worth of observations, there should really only be a couple of “A” years, not 3 or 4, unless the data are extremely skewed, bimodal or there’s something else going on.

 

Anyway, I’d say this season’s snow total is a nod to the fact that we had to make up for last season’s -2.04 S.D. (as well as the four below average seasons prior to that) at some point.  Let’s hope we’re moving past that lull and can head into another good stretch like we had last decade.

[powderfreak]

Moose walking down the sidewalk in Morrisville today, ha.  Wildlife is on the move again with bear and moose sightings.

[powderfreak]

Other animals, aka skiers and riders, are also still on the move in the woods.

Today was so much fun.  Mansfield still holding some snow. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Moose walking down the sidewalk in Morrisville today, ha.  Wildlife is on the move again with bear and moose sightings.

Saw a dead bear next to 89 NB between exits 6 & 7 this morning. 

[eyewall]

Strong southerlies today have pushed the lake above flood stage at Rouses Point NY. We will have to see if Burlington reaches flood levels after the coming rain and once the winds die off and water returns southward. 

[powderfreak]

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Strong southerlies today have pushed the lake above flood stage at Rouses Point NY. We will have to see if Burlington reaches flood levels after the coming rain and once the winds die off and water returns southward. 

I'm doing another snow survey for NWS today on Mansfield to get a handle on what's still left after this week of melting.  Even without any significant rainfall the rivers have been very high and the lake is rising rapidly.

[eyewall]

50 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm doing another snow survey for NWS today on Mansfield to get a handle on what's still left after this week of melting.  Even without any significant rainfall the rivers have been very high and the lake is rising rapidly.

The Burlington Gauge has been falling a bit this morning but that may be more due to the push of water northward for now on the southerlies. I suspect it should hit flood stage after this week's rain and snowmelt runoff. The winds now are gusting pretty hard but still below advisory level.

[tamarack]

Stereo gobblers at 5:30 dog-walking time this morning.  One bird in full strut for 7-8 hens in the field across the street from our place, and a more enthusiastic though distant one (or more) on the farm that abuts our back line.  Also a barred owl sounding off.  During yesterday's early walk, a deer bounded across the road 50 yards ahead of us, and it's amazing how hard a 40-45 lb dog can pull on the leash.  The minute-old tracks had lots of aromatic appeal to her as well.

Still a couple inches around the stake, but even with today's 40s, I think continuous pack ends with this evening's obs - 136 days, Dec. 5 thru today, 22 above my avg and only 6 days from the longest.

[powderfreak]

I went out this morning and ran a full top-to-bottom snow survey, trying to space them out about every 500 vertical feet.  I’ve estimated the elevations to the nearest 100 feet. This is all on either an East or Northeast aspect, which appears to be very favorable for snow preservation.

One constant I found at all elevations was the SWE generally in the 40-50% range for water.  Also, for every 500ft you go down in elevation the snowpack is 50% of what it was 500ft higher. 

The Mansfield COOP stake was at 75" this morning at 3,800ft.  What's interesting is there isn't too much snow depth gradient in the 3000-4000ft zone but it drops drastically below that...owing to the past couple weeks of temperatures and the time of year when you notice a big snow depth difference between 45F in low elevations and 35F up high which doesn't melt nearly as fast.  Like yesterday, the snow depth up high remained unchanged while we lost a decent amount of snow in the base area.

Started out at 3,000ft in the same zone as last week.

3,000ft

Snow Depth: 65”

Water: Maxed out the scale all three times at 27”.  Those cores are very heavy and heavy dense, wet snow.  Surface froze last night but it’s all wet granular below the frozen surface snow (did not use the scale to pound the tube in this time, ha). 

You can just pick out the top of the tube in one of the holes next to my skis.  Snow level is about 5" above the 60" tube.

Snow-water weight maxed out the scale again at 27" (it won't go past the 2" mark a second time around).

Over 5 feet of high water content snow...with at least 27" of water in it.

I then moved to what I estimate as being 2,500ft and there is a drastic drop-off in snow depth in that area.

2,500ft

Snow Depth: 35”

Water: 13.0”

Next location was estimated at 2,100ft.  Again found about half the depth and half the water as the previous spot.

2,100ft

Snow Depth: 16”

Water: 7.0”

 

Last spot I did was around 1,700ft as that was the lowest elevation that someone could make a case for consistent snow cover on Mansfield's east slope.  Snow cover runs out rapidly below this elevation.  So much so that its 50/50% cover even another 100-200ft lower.

1,700ft

Snow Depth: 8”

Water: 4.5”

Down at 1,500ft Barnes Camp area the snow cover is patchy and below 50% coverage now.  There is some depth there at up to 4-8” where there is snow, but there’s also large areas of bare ground.

Also, across the street at Spruce Peak which faces south and west as it looks at Mansfield, it is completely free of snow up to 2,500ft on those south/west aspects.  So it is extremely elevation and aspect oriented right now.

[Lava Rock]

Cold. 38. Woodstock going

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

Cold. 38. Woodstock going

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk
 

Who's on stage? The Who? Hendrix? 

[Lava Rock]

Who's on stage? The Who? Hendrix? 

Lol, stupid autocorrect. Meant woodstove

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

We had some RN/IP mix here last night in some heavier echoes, Looks like 
Northern Maine had some snow and looks to see some again Friday Night. 


000
NOUS41 KCAR 201238
PNSCAR
MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-030053--210038-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
838 AM EDT THU APR 20 2017

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION
IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...CWOP
OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS...FACEBOOK FANS...AND MEDIA FOR THESE
REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CARIBOU

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

MAINE

...AROOSTOOK COUNTY...
   ORIENT                 3.3   651 AM  4/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   SOUTH AMITY            3.0   614 AM  4/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   CARIBOU                2.3   717 AM  4/20  ASOS/AWOS
   CARIBOU - WFO          2.3   623 AM  4/20  COOP/RIVER
   4 ENE NEW SWEDEN       2.3   350 AM  4/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   WESTFIELD              2.0   826 AM  4/20  NWS EMPLOYEE
   LIMESTONE              1.5   717 AM  4/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   4 S HAMLIN             1.5   620 AM  4/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   VAN BUREN              1.5   837 AM  4/20  NWS EMPLOYEE
   HOULTON                1.5   638 AM  4/20  PUBLIC
   3 E MADAWASKA          1.5   600 AM  4/20  COCORAHS
   2 SW CARY              1.3  1051 PM  4/19  TRAINED SPOTTER
   1 SW FORT KENT         1.0   700 AM  4/20  ME-CAR_MESO
   FORT KENT - COOP       1.0   700 AM  4/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   LILLE                  0.3   700 AM  4/20  CO-OP OBSERVER

...PENOBSCOT COUNTY...
   MILLINOCKET WWTP       0.5   622 AM  4/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   4 NE LINCOLN           0.4   500 AM  4/20  COCORAHS
   BANGOR - CWO           0.4  1200 AM  4/20  CO-OP OBSERVER

...PISCATAQUIS COUNTY...
   DOVER-FOXCROFT - COO     T   700 AM  4/20  CO-OP OBSERVER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
   ROBBINSTON             3.8   711 AM  4/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   TOPSFIELD - COOP       2.5   700 AM  4/20  CO-OP OBSERVER
   1 SE COOPER            2.0   600 AM  4/20  COCORAHS
   WHITING                1.0   220 AM  4/20  PUBLIC
   1 SW JONESBORO         0.7   658 AM  4/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   COLUMBIA FALLS         0.5   712 AM  4/20  TRAINED SPOTTER
   EAST MACHIAS           0.5   828 AM  4/20  PUBLIC

[tamarack]

Had slushy drops around 6 yesterday afternoon as I drove over Mile Hill, and still 2" at the stake for my 9 PM obs, but only trace amounts this morning as temps rose from 34-35 to about 40 overnight.  Still patches with well over a foot in the woods.  GYX dialing back QPF for tomorrow; looks like another (nearly) flood-free snowmelt for western Maine.  Still a couple feet in the woods of northern Maine though fields are mainly bare.  06z GFS has a major rain event for up there out in clown range - we trust that it goes away on future runs.

PF, that 2500' core seems odd, in that it has 37% water while all the others, including 3000', have over 40%.  The 3K, 2.1K, 1.7K progression of (at least) 41-42%/44%/56% looks logical.  Must be something odd in the way that the snow accumulated/settled/melted at 2.5K.

[adk]

On 4/19/2017 at 9:02 AM, powderfreak said:

I'm doing another snow survey for NWS today on Mansfield to get a handle on what's still left after this week of melting.  Even without any significant rainfall the rivers have been very high and the lake is rising rapidly.

By Sat. AM we're going to be down to the real glacial stuff. 

Be interested to see what you find then....nothing below 2500 save for trails?

 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

PF, that 2500' core seems odd, in that it has 37% water while all the others, including 3000', have over 40%.  The 3K, 2.1K, 1.7K progression of (at least) 41-42%/44%/56% looks logical.  Must be something odd in the way that the snow accumulated/settled/melted at 2.5K.

Yeah I don't think that's right but its in the ballpark.  Could just merely be a couple poor samples in there.  It was the only site with a pretty decent coverage of spruce/evergreen cover overhead, but I don't think that would do anything.  More than likely I just lost a little snow at the bottom of the core when I pulled the tube out.

Crazy how much water is in those things though...the BTV Hydrologist and I were commenting on how much water the snow can hold as the snowpack up high in the 3,000-4,000ft layer has been decreasing in depth but the water hasn't really changed.  When you've got over 5 feet of snow, apparently that can soak up a lot of water, even as the top layer exposed to the air continues to melt at a steady rate.  It seems to just get eaten up by snowpack before it reaches the ground and hasn't really resulted in my discharge of water yet. 

Most of the river rises have been from snow that was melting below 2,500ft.  The tipping point has to be getting close to the 3,000ft level though...where its melting AND releasing significant water.  Not just melting and getting absorbed by the bottom several feet of snow.