40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 9 hours ago, dmillz25 said: I've heard something about if the qbo is very strongly negative it's not good for blocking All joking aside, I have, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 1962-63 had so much blocking the south had above average snowfall along with the very cold temperatures...2000-01 had periods of strong blocking too...the enso for both years were near la nina's...both of those years had a cold Fall leading into the winter...this year is different but the qbo is the same... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 5 hours ago, uncle W said: the QBO is on the same level as 1962 and 2000...both years remained at that level throughout the winter...62-63 was a very cold winter and 2000-01 was snowy... Yup. We are closely aligned with 2000 right now. In terms of QBO progression. I think anything below -20 will be bad for blocking. Basically there will be tons of suppression and very little room for amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Very healthy La Niña in place. And unlike last year’s Niña, we have classic La Niña tropical convective forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 Here is the 7 day change in the Pacific, the PDO is continuing its negative decent. Classic cold horseshoe configuration taking shape along the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska, warming waters in the western Pacific. A solid -PDO winter looking more and more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 On 11/5/2017 at 2:05 PM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Yup. We are closely aligned with 2000 right now. In terms of QBO progression. I think anything below -20 will be bad for blocking. Basically there will be tons of suppression and very little room for amplification. I'm seeing people talk about major bookend winters as analogs like 1959-60, 1992-93, 1996-97, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2012-13. - EPO too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2017 Share Posted November 11, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: I'm seeing people talk about major bookend winters as analogs like 1959-60, 1992-93, 1996-97, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2012-13. - EPO too. Not sure why 00-01 is being used as an analog. Yes it was part of a multi year La Niña and had a -QBO but it had +PDO and the tropical convective forcing resembled an El Niño. The PDO was becoming positive at this time in 2000 and by January it went positive and gained strength through the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 On 11/11/2017 at 11:23 AM, snowman19 said: Not sure why 00-01 is being used as an analog. Yes it was part of a multi year La Niña and had a -QBO but it had +PDO and the tropical convective forcing resembled an El Niño. The PDO was becoming positive at this time in 2000 and by January it went positive and gained strength through the winter I would take 2008 2009 in a heartbeat. Snow cover from mid December through mid March. 133% of average snowfall, albeit from mostly ice changeover events save the March 1 storm. Sw coastal ct. How close was that set up to this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2017 Share Posted November 12, 2017 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I would take 2008 2009 in a heartbeat. Snow cover from mid December through mid March. 133% of average snowfall, albeit from mostly ice changeover events save the March 1 storm. Sw coastal ct. How close was that set up to this year? I’m not a fan of 08-09 as an analog, 05-06 is a good match to the global pattern IMO. 00-01 had El Niño like tropical forcing and was a strengthening +PDO going into and through that winter, which are the 2 main reasons why I don’t like it, as I mentioned earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 11 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m not a fan of 08-09 as an analog, 05-06 is a good match to the global pattern IMO. 00-01 had El Niño like tropical forcing and was a strengthening +PDO going into and through that winter, which are the 2 main reasons why I don’t like it, as I mentioned earlier Agree....2005-2006 is my number one analog, but I think it will be a bit colder than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted November 13, 2017 Share Posted November 13, 2017 21 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’m not a fan of 08-09 as an analog, 05-06 is a good match to the global pattern IMO. 00-01 had El Niño like tropical forcing and was a strengthening +PDO going into and through that winter, which are the 2 main reasons why I don’t like it, as I mentioned earlier 10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree....2005-2006 is my number one analog, but I think it will be a bit colder than that. 2005-06 fits my bookend winter analog list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 i wouldn't call this a negative pdo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2017 Share Posted November 14, 2017 05 looks like a poor analog at this point in the pacific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 On 11/13/2017 at 9:10 PM, forkyfork said: 05 looks like a poor analog at this point in the pacific The Nina was more west-based in 05-06, and there was also a much more classic -PDO with the cold Gulf of Alaska and warmer waters towards the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 22 minutes ago, nzucker said: The Nina was more west-based in 05-06, and there was also a much more classic -PDO with the cold Gulf of Alaska and warmer waters towards the Aleutians. We are continuing with a PDO drop. As classic a -PDO as 2005? No, not yet. But we are on the way. Here is the 7 day change: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 The PDO value for October 2017 is +0.05. It's not quite negative yet. Although the PDO values may go up. Due to the unusual anomaly that surfaced next to Western Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 17, 2017 Share Posted November 17, 2017 13 hours ago, snowman19 said: We are continuing with a PDO drop. As classic a -PDO as 2005? No, not yet. But we are on the way. Here is the 7 day change: doesn't look like that huge area of warm water between hawaii and mexico is going anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 21, 2017 Share Posted November 21, 2017 Region 3.4 is still below -1.0C. It’s been a really, really long time since region 4 has been this cold (also below -1.0C). Thinking we may see a high-end weak La Niña this winter after all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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