snowman19 Posted October 12, 2017 Share Posted October 12, 2017 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: notice the warming north atlantic waters, that's a good sign for potential blocking. The last few years have featured cold water there and a lack of blocking overall True about the current AMO look. My post only dealt with the PDO progression, which has been consistently dropping to negative since April and now appears to be on an accelerated course for negative, for the reasons I stated above. I don’t remember seeing a Pacific that’s looked like this since 2012: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 48 minutes ago, snowman19 said: True about the current AMO look. My post only dealt with the PDO progression, which has been consistently dropping to negative since April and now appears to be on an accelerated course for negative, for the reasons I stated above. I don’t remember seeing a Pacific that’s looked like this since 2012: Thats not how the pacific looks. Thats the previous 7 days change. You have to post the current sst anomaly if you want to discuss how it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Thats not how the pacific looks. Thats the previous 7 days change. You have to post the current sst anomaly if you want to discuss how it looks. 7 day change yes, I should have stated that, the progression is important though because it shows where we are heading. Here is the current look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoveSN+ Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 Latest PDO comes in more positive than last month. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 14 hours ago, snowman19 said: This is very true. I posted the link for HM’s article on the role the QBO plays during La Nina’s above. Basically, positive vs negative QBO during a La Niña winter makes a huge difference Don't get me wrong. I'm *not* saying we are cooked. But it does seem like the Pacific side makes or breaks us this year. No reasons to be overly optimistic or pessimistic at this point. Next few weeks will paint a clearer picture, I think. Also, if the last few winters teach us anything, it's that long-range forecasting has a long long way to go... Out of curiosity (please don't bombard me with weenie icons :-P), how did worldwide ocean temps compare in 1995 at this time of year? Was the (weak) Niña waxing or waning at this point and what did the PDO look like? From what I understand, that was a -QBO winter (correct me if I'm wrong, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 the qbo in 1995 was going negative at the end of the year and getting stronger during that winter... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 18 hours ago, Brian5671 said: notice the warming north atlantic waters, that's a good sign for potential blocking. The last few years have featured cold water there and a lack of blocking overall Evidently the SST anomalies off Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are the warmest above normal as of this point in the season since October 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 6 hours ago, LoveSN+ said: Latest PDO comes in more positive than last month. http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt Based on the latest SST plots, it’s dropping fast. Note all the ongoing cooling all along the west coast and GOA and the warming in the western/central Pacific. https://a.scpr.org/i/a948c17921abed55af27309db2eb900c/110103-full.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 5 hours ago, Eduardo said: Don't get me wrong. I'm *not* saying we are cooked. But it does seem like the Pacific side makes or breaks us this year. No reasons to be overly optimistic or pessimistic at this point. Next few weeks will paint a clearer picture, I think. Also, if the last few winters teach us anything, it's that long-range forecasting has a long long way to go... Out of curiosity (please don't bombard me with weenie icons :-P), how did worldwide ocean temps compare in 1995 at this time of year? Was the (weak) Niña waxing or waning at this point and what did the PDO look like? From what I understand, that was a -QBO winter (correct me if I'm wrong, of course). The PDO was strongly positive at this time back in 1995, the QBO was also positive at this time and it turned weakly negative during that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 13, 2017 Share Posted October 13, 2017 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The PDO was strongly positive at this time back in 1995, the QBO was also positive at this time and it turned weakly negative during that winter To add, 95-96 was a first year La Niña, coming off an El Niño the previous winter, so you were dealing with some lag effects/El Niño hangover. This year, we have a 2nd year, strengthening La Niña that some models now even push toward moderate territory come December, we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 20, 2017 Share Posted October 20, 2017 Major cooling/strengthening of the La Niña ongoing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: Major cooling/strengthening of the La Niña ongoing Better enjoy it now because the latest MJO forecast says that the trades peter out and the westerlies take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Better enjoy it now because the latest MJO forecast says that the trades peter out and the westerlies take over. Wax and wane as is the case with any ENSO event, Niña or Niño. My earlier call for cold-neutral was wrong. We are, without any doubt, very clearly deep in La Niña mode in the atmospheric sense, and will be until spring. The wheels are already in motion and have been despite any waxing and waning of weekly SSTs. This is destined to be at the very least a weak La Niña winter and possibly low end moderate, we have model consensus now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 21, 2017 Share Posted October 21, 2017 10 hours ago, mitchnick said: Better enjoy it now because the latest MJO forecast says that the trades peter out and the westerlies take over. ^Stormchaser Chuck is thinking this event may actually go moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 On 10/21/2017 at 7:17 AM, snowman19 said: ^Stormchaser Chuck is thinking this event may actually go moderate And it's possible that it "may" snow next week. That statement of SC is simply thowing out one of many possibilities. The trades are still ready to die; see updated prog below. Personally, though a weak Nina is favored at this time, it may not make it. In 2 months whatever cold state Enso is in will be weakening. Since a weak Nina requires 5 consecutive tri-monthlies -.5c or colder, it better get much colder fast. In any event, no way in he!! we get a tri-monthly number colder than -1c imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 Massive negative AAM drop coming for the tail end of this month and into November. Classic La Niña forcing, atmospheric response. We have a very coupled Nina atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 23, 2017 Share Posted October 23, 2017 12 hours ago, mitchnick said: And it's possible that it "may" snow next week. That statement of SC is simply thowing out one of many possibilities. The trades are still ready to die; see updated prog below. Personally, though a weak Nina is favored at this time, it may not make it. In 2 months whatever cold state Enso is in will be weakening. Since a weak Nina requires 5 consecutive tri-monthlies -.5c or colder, it better get much colder fast. In any event, no way in he!! we get a tri-monthly number colder than -1c imho. The new CPC weekly update has region 3.4 down to -0.8C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 24, 2017 Share Posted October 24, 2017 PDO drop continuing, classic -PDO configuration setting up and a rather robust one at that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 9:53 AM, snowman19 said: The new CPC weekly update has region 3.4 down to -0.8C Considering the last ONI monthly was -.1C, it's going to take a whole lot more to get it to -.5C for a tri-monthly ONI reading. And considering the westerlies are back by tomorrow (see pic below), the weekly temp will rise in the next week or two. The only chance since NINA has is an 05/06 style weak NINA....late bloomer and minimum of 5 months ONI reading of less than -.5C (link below.) Again, the models all show a Nina is favored, but will it be too little too late to have a "typical Nina" effect on our weather? That's what I question. And considering current seasonal/monthly models all show a warm east with AN heights for December, contrary to a typical Nina, I think not. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2017 Share Posted October 25, 2017 On 10/23/2017 at 7:22 AM, snowman19 said: Massive negative AAM drop coming for the tail end of this month and into November. Classic La Niña forcing, atmospheric response. We have a very coupled Nina atmosphere Word of caution; the GFS based AAM guidance - statistically - has a tendency to overestimate AAM decreases in the medium to long range. In other words, the AAM usually verifies more positive than the guidance D7+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 On 10/25/2017 at 10:01 AM, mitchnick said: Considering the last ONI monthly was -.1C, it's going to take a whole lot more to get it to -.5C for a tri-monthly ONI reading. And considering the westerlies are back by tomorrow (see pic below), the weekly temp will rise in the next week or two. The only chance since NINA has is an 05/06 style weak NINA....late bloomer and minimum of 5 months ONI reading of less than -.5C (link below.) Again, the models all show a Nina is favored, but will it be too little too late to have a "typical Nina" effect on our weather? That's what I question. And considering current seasonal/monthly models all show a warm east with AN heights for December, contrary to a typical Nina, I think not. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Not disagreeing with you, however, the subsurface cold pool has grown substantially stronger and larger and once the strong easterly trade winds come back, the SSTs will drop like a rock and very quickly. The POAMA has the trades coming back with a vengeance in November, we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 monthly oni was -0.5 in September...October and November must average at least -0.5 for the SON tri monthly oni to be at least a -0.5... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Now that we are less than a week away from November, I think we have a much better idea of how the major circulations are setting up for this winter; weak La Niña, -QBO, low solar, -PDO, very strong tendency the last 2 months for persistent WAR and SE ridging, WELL above normal SSTs along the east coast positively feeding back into them (WAR, SE ridge). Not even going to touch on the arctic sea ice and the Siberian snowcover growth/coverage theory (SAI), it has had major, epic fails the last several years and is not well understood at all right now. As far as how the -QBO and La Niña may interact this winter, here is the link to Anthony Masiello’s (HM) article from a few years back, describing it in depth: http://ionlyusethegfs.blogspot.com/2012/04/qbo-aleutian-high-relationship.html?m=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 3, 2017 Author Share Posted November 3, 2017 QBO down to -16.79 according to @Isotherm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 4 hours ago, dmillz25 said: QBO down to -16.79 according to @Isotherm This -QBO event is becoming very strong, still strengthening obviously. I read a couple of discussions from the QBO gurus and they are expecting it to drop alot further negative during the upcoming months (Winter). Someone suggested we may see it exceed -30 this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 4, 2017 Share Posted November 4, 2017 Possible record strong -QBO coming up this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 15 hours ago, snowman19 said: Possible record strong -QBO coming up this winter Let me guess....not good for blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 5, 2017 Author Share Posted November 5, 2017 I've heard something about if the qbo is very strongly negative it's not good for blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 the QBO is on the same level as 1962 and 2000...both years remained at that level throughout the winter...62-63 was a very cold winter and 2000-01 was snowy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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