snowman19 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 36 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: I'm thinking that some form of a La Nina is likely this winter. The ECMWF/JAMSTEC have been struggling. My thoughts on the upcoming ENSO event: https://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/2017/08/is-2017-18-la-nina-on-table.html Good read, but I honestly don't see us getting an official La Niña this winter, even a weak one. Not that it would matter much because cold-neutral can mimic weak La Niña patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 If it's a weak niña, hopefully its east based Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 The AMO is solidly positive as per the official ESRL NOAA values. I do not concur with any of these unofficial homespun indices suggestive of negative AMO right now. The Atlantic very ostensibly has and continues to be in a warm cycle; I don't see that altering for another few years at minimum. ENSO wise, given subsurface and Pacific pressure trends, I am fairly confident we are looking at a cold neutral or weak Nina event. I agree with blizzard of 96 that the JAMSTEC has been off base and overestimated with its ENSO prognostications lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: If it's a weak niña, hopefully its east based It's probably going to be too weak to really matter. If this winter ends up extremely mild it would probably be either due to a strongly positive AO or the La Niña becoming much stronger than expected. The QBO definitely as of now would seem to argue against a strongly positive AO or NAO this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It's probably going to be too weak to really matter. If this winter ends up extremely mild it would probably be either due to a strongly positive AO or the La Niña becoming much stronger than expected. The QBO definitely as of now would seem to argue against a strongly positive AO or NAO this winter The thing I don't understand right now is these calls by some for a moderate La Niña, not happening IMO, I don't think even a weak La Niña is happening either, but that's more reasonable than calling for a moderate event. This is a cold-neutral/La Nada event all the way in my view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: IMO it's overplaying the cooling trends. I'm on board for cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 14 hours ago, snowman19 said: IMO it's overplaying the cooling trends. I'm on board for cold-neutral/borderline weak La Niña. We shall see Just to add, as I've said before, we don't have many analogs to our current setup as of now. Cold-neutral/La Nada following a previous La Niña, -PDO, -QBO, low solar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Wasn't 95-96 one of those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 8 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Wasn't 95-96 one of those? No. 95-96 was a 1st year weak La Niña coming off an El Niño the winter before, +PDO, different solar cycle, weak -QBO. 89-90 actually is a decent match for this upcoming winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 using enso alone (sounds like a guy I knew) I'd take 1967-68 as a top analog...it was a cool start to fall like this year...a second year weak nina/weak negative...67-68 was very cold during January and February...A dry February contributed to below average snowfall...January 1968 had one of the coldest weeks on record only to have a rainstorm as it departed...near misses and marginal temperatures during major storms were other reasons snowfall was lacking...I'll take my chances with a year like that in todays climate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 This is the 1st time in over 5 years (2012) that I can remember seeing such a -PDO configuration: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 All climate models are predicting a weak to mod la niña now. Impressive turn around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 hours ago, dmillz25 said: All climate models are predicting a weak to mod la niña now. Impressive turn around And to think, back in April, some folks were convinced that we were going to see a moderate to strong west-based/Modoki El Niño. What a difference 5 months makes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mason Dixon Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 18 hours ago, snowman19 said: And to think, back in April, some folks were convinced that we were going to see a moderate to strong west-based/Modoki El Niño. What a difference 5 months makes.... And to think you have been saying no La Niña so you are just as wrong as the El Niño crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 I'm going to give it another month, but in light of the new climate model runs, namely the EURO seasonal being the latest one, I may have been wrong with my cold-neutral ENSO call. Every model is now showing a healthy weak La Niña in place for this winter (would be the 2nd La Niña winter in a row if it happens) with some models even going moderate. We also continue to decend into a more robustly negative PDO, as I have said this is the most -PDO look that we have seen in years. It may be time to look at 2nd year weak La Niña/-PDO/-QBO/low solar analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I'm going to give it another month, but in light of the new climate model runs, namely the EURO seasonal being the latest one, I may have been wrong with my cold-neutral ENSO call. Every model is now showing a healthy weak La Niña in place for this winter (would be the 2nd La Niña winter in a row if it happens) with some models even going moderate. We also continue to decend into a more robustly negative PDO, as I have said this is the most -PDO look that we have seen in years. It may be time to look at 2nd year weak La Niña/-PDO/-QBO/low solar analogs Could be a pretty blocky winter. Hell the pattern has been blocky since March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Could be a pretty blocky winter. Hell the pattern has been blocky since March. Possibly. I don't have access to the EURO seasonal but from what I've read it's now showing a classic La Niña longwave pattern with a strong, predominate -PNA (RNA) pattern. If that's the case and we also end up with a healthy -PDO, we would absolutely, positively need a negative NAM (-AO, -NAO) to help offset the effects from the SE ridge or we will be in very big trouble if you want a cold and snowy winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 10, 2017 Author Share Posted September 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Possibly. I don't have access to the EURO seasonal but from what I've read it's now showing a classic La Niña longwave pattern with a strong, predominate -PNA (RNA) pattern. If that's the case and we also end up with a healthy -PDO, we would absolutely, positively need a negative NAM (-AO, -NAO) to help offset the effects from the SE ridge or we will be in very big trouble if you want a cold and snowy winter Yeah but I'm also reading that the la niña is actually colder in niño 1.2 including the subsurface. That could lead to colder than average temps in the east coast. Combine that with the low solar and -qbo that could be a pretty good combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 ok Unc...winters with 2 Nina in a row..go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: ok Unc...winters with 2 Nina in a row..go! not pretty...some good ones in there like 1955-56 and 2008-09... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 12, 2017 Author Share Posted September 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, uncle W said: not pretty...some good ones in there like 1955-56 and 2008-09... Did those have a -qbo low solar and a pattern like this past summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 11 hours ago, uncle W said: not pretty...some good ones in there like 1955-56 and 2008-09... Lets see how good I am..71-72,74-75,84-85,99-00..any others I'm missing?..was 62-63 and 67-68 also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said: Lets see how good I am..71-72,74-75,84-85,99-00..any others I'm missing?..was 62-63 and 67-68 also? old mei numbers... 1916-17 1921-22 1933-34 1938-39 1943-44 latest oni numbers... 1950-51 1955-56 1962-63 1967-68 1971-72 1974-75 1984-85 1996-97 1999-00 2008-09 2011-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 36 minutes ago, uncle W said: old mei numbers... 1916-17 1921-22 1933-34 1938-39 1943-44 latest oni numbers... 1950-51 1955-56 1962-63 1967-68 1971-72 1974-75 1984-85 1996-97 1999-00 2008-09 2011-12 out of the 11 latest oni years you used, 5/11 were above average snowfall for the Albany area. The average of those 11 years was 57.5 inches, which is slightly below the average annual snowfall of 60.3 inches for Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 1 hour ago, uncle W said: old mei numbers... 1916-17 1921-22 1933-34 1938-39 1943-44 latest oni numbers... 1950-51 1955-56 1962-63 1967-68 1971-72 1974-75 1984-85 1996-97 1999-00 2008-09 2011-12 I guess I'm pretty good lol..62-63 and 67-68 were cold winters but dry..below snowfall..I thought 96-97 was neutral..71-72,74-75 and 99-00 were horrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 12, 2017 Share Posted September 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, KEITH L.I said: I guess I'm pretty good lol..62-63 and 67-68 were cold winters but dry..below snowfall..I thought 96-97 was neutral..71-72,74-75 and 99-00 were horrid I used weak negative's too...so far I like 1967-68...it got off to an early start and the heart of the winter was very cold but dry...62-63 was similar...I think the upcoming winter will have at least one very cold week...if we get enough cold air we should get enough snow. TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 19, 2017 Share Posted September 19, 2017 the la nina winters and some weak negative winters snowfall and temperature...starting with the strongest by oni for the DJF tri monthly period...the AO numbers are the average monthly for Dec thu Mar...Average temperature is from Dec-Feb...minimum for the season...coldest 30 day period...seasonal snowfall and biggest snowfalls... all snowfalls 4" or more or largest...the stronger la nina got more snow with a more negative ao for the season...some of the weaker years have above average snowfall with a more positive ao...last year was one... la nina winters...DJF ONI...Dec-Mar AO...A.T....min....30 day cold...snowfall...biggest snowfalls... 1973-74..............-1.7.............-0.296........35.5.....6..........32.3..........23.5"..........6.0" 4.3" 1988-89..............-1.6............+2.399........35.9.....5..........32.4............8.1"..........5.0" 1999-00..............-1.6............+0.735........36.2.....3..........26.2..........16.3"..........5.5" 1975-76..............-1.5............+0.892........34.4....-1..........27.1..........17.3"..........4.2" 4.0" 2007-08..............-1.4............+0.531........36.4...10..........35.7..........11.9"..........6.0" 1949-50..............-1.4............+0.190........37.5.....6..........31.6..........13.8"..........3.8" 1998-99..............-1.4............+0.113........38.7.....9..........31.3..........12.7"..........4.5" 1970-71..............-1.3.............-0.644.......32.1.....4..........24.2..........15.5"..........6.4" 2010-11..............-1.3.............-0.329.......32.7.....6..........28.1..........61.9"..........20.0" 19.0" 9.1" 5.0" 1995-96..............-0.9.............-1.162.......32.3.....5..........27.7..........75.6"..........20.2" 10.7" 7.9" 7.5" 4.6" 4.6" 4.1" 1955-56..............-0.9.............-0.512.......32.7.....5..........27.6..........33.5"..........11.6" 6.5" 4.2" 1984-85..............-0.9.............-1.062.......36.4....-2..........27.5..........24.1".........5.7" 4.8" 4.3" 4.1" ................................................................................................................................................................. weak la nina or weak negative years... 1950-51..............-0.8.............-1.084.......35.9.....9..........33.0..........11.6"..........3.0" 1967-68..............-0.7.............-0.342.......31.3....-1..........25.1..........19.5"..........6.6" 2000-01..............-0.7.............-1.406.......33.5...14..........29.9..........35.0"........12.0"....6.0"....5.7" 2005-06..............-0.7.............-1.008.......37.3...14..........33.5..........40.0"........26.9"....5.8" 1971-72..............-0.7............+0.164.......35.1.....5..........28.6..........22.9"..........5.7".....5.2" 2008-09..............-0.7............+0.224.......34.2.....6..........27.9..........27.6"..........8.3".....4.5"....4.3" 2011-12..............-0.7............+0.750.......40.5...13..........37.0............7.4"..........4.2" 1954-55..............-0.6.............-0.930.......34.0.....0..........28.6..........11.5"..........3.9" 1964-65..............-0.5.............-1.070.......33.3.....9..........28.0..........24.4"..........6.3".....4.6" 1983-84..............-0.5.............-0.400.......35.2.....4..........26.1..........25.4"..........6.9".....5.1"....4.6" 1974-75..............-0.5............+0.624.......37.5...15..........33.0..........13.1"..........7.8" 1996-97..............-0.5............+0.201.......37.8.....4..........31.7..........10.0"..........3.5" 2013-14..............-0.5............+0.439.......33.0.....4..........28.5..........57.4"........12.5"...11.5"...8.0"...6.4"...5.0"...4.0" 1962-63..............-0.4.............-1.255.......30.0....-2..........25.9..........16.3"..........4.2" 1966-67..............-0.4............+0.293.......34.1.....4..........28.6..........51.5"........12.5".....9.8"...7.1" 1985-86..............-0.4.............-0.872.......33.4.....8..........31.0..........13.0"..........4.5"....4.5" 2012-13..............-0.4.............-1.838.......36.9...11..........31.5..........26.1"........11.4"....4.7" 2016-17..............-0.4............+1.108.......39.3...14..........35.5..........30.2"..........9.4"....7.6"....5.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 29, 2017 Share Posted September 29, 2017 I’ve busted my call for cold-neutral. Based on the current ssts, pressure and trade wind patterns and the subsurface, a weak La Niña is guaranteed and a moderate La Niña by Christmas looks like a very real possibility, in fact, several models are now showing a moderate Niña. The PDO is continuing its decent negative, in fact the Pacific is taking on a very classic -PDO signature. ENSO (weak or moderate La Niña) aside, I think we can pretty much count on a -PDO, low solar, -QBO Winter. There has been a lot of buzz about Mount Agung erupting and that possibly affecting this winter. From what I’ve read, it seems unlikely that this eruption will surpass the 1963 eruption. Keep this in mind, if it does turn into a major eruption, it may actually affect this winter in a negative way if you want cold and snow. Major tropical volcanic eruptions actually work to strengthen the stratospheric polar vortex tremendously the 1st winter after the eruption by pumping sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, which leads to ++AO. It is the 2nd winter after after an eruption that you tend to see -AO and a colder winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted September 30, 2017 Share Posted September 30, 2017 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: I’ve busted my call for cold-neutral. Based on the current ssts, pressure and trade wind patterns and the subsurface, a weak La Niña is guaranteed and a moderate La Niña by Christmas looks like a very real possibility, in fact, several models are now showing a moderate Niña. The PDO is continuing its decent negative, in fact the Pacific is taking on a very classic -PDO signature. ENSO (weak or moderate La Niña) aside, I think we can pretty much count on a -PDO, low solar, -QBO Winter. There has been a lot of buzz about Mount Agung erupting and that possibly affecting this winter. From what I’ve read, it seems unlikely that this eruption will surpass the 1963 eruption. Keep this in mind, if it does turn into a major eruption, it may actually affect this winter in a negative way if you want cold and snow. Major tropical volcanic eruptions actually work to strengthen the stratospheric polar vortex tremendously the 1st winter after the eruption by pumping sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, which leads to ++AO. It is the 2nd winter after after an eruption that you tend to see -AO and a colder winter. Major tropical volcanic eruptions = cold stratosphere, strong stratospheric PV, ++AO the winter immediately following Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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