La Niña Winter of 2017-18

[snowman19]

Some (very) early factors as of now going into this winter:  1. ENSO - An almost guaranteed  La Nada/neutral following an established La Niña last winter. Right now I'm favoring "cool-neutral", models continue to cool region 3.4 with every run. 2. PDO - steadily dropping toward negative since early April, now clearly negative and rather robustly negative from an SST configuration standpoint. 3. AMO - negative and continuing to grow even more strongly negative as North Atlantic SSTs continue to cool. Pretty good evidence it has entered its long term negative phase. 4. QBO - negative (easterly) and looks to remain so for winter. 5. Solar - low solar activity/low solar cycle. Obviously way too early to look at snowcover and icecover and even come October, there are very, very serious doubts about using them to predict the winter AO state. Huge, monumental fails with that the last several winters.  

[snowman19]

A very, very early stab at some possible analogs for this upcoming winter (assuming La Nada/cool-neutral, negative PDO, and negative QBO), all following a La Niña the previous winter: 1956-1957, 1989-1990, and 2012-2013

[nzucker]

On 8/4/2017 at 0:09 PM, snowman19 said:

A very, very early stab at some possible analogs for this upcoming winter (assuming La Nada/cool-neutral, negative PDO, and negative QBO), all following a La Niña the previous winter: 1956-1957, 1989-1990, and 2012-2013

You could throw 08-09 in there as well. Had 45" in Dobbs Ferry with a very cold January. 

[uncle W]

January 1957 had a cold January despite a very positive ao...it hit zero in NY with 5" of snow when the ao was near +5...January 2009 was quite cold too...Dec. 1989 was very cold...no cold months in 2012-13 but it did have the heaviest snowfall...three of the four had 20 or more inches of snow and a 6" snowfall...two had significant snow in November...1989-2012...

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, uncle W said:

January 1957 had a cold January despite a very positive ao...it hit zero in NY with 5" of snow when the ao was near +5...January 2009 was quite cold too...Dec. 1989 was very cold...no cold months in 2012-13 but it did have the heaviest snowfall...three of the four had 20 or more inches of snow and a 6" snowfall...two had significant snow in November...1989-2012...

March 2013 was quite cold, not part of meteorological winter but still important to note. 

The -QBO/low solar combo is usually favorable for blocking. I'd definitely expect more periods of -NAO/-AO than last year. 

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, nzucker said:

You could throw 08-09 in there as well. Had 45" in Dobbs Ferry with a very cold January. 

Still early but I think we can count on a few things. -QBO, low solar, La Nada (coolish-neutral) and -PDO, the PDO has been dropping very consistently and deliberately since early April and we now have a pronounced, robust -PDO configuration in the Pacific.  I made sure my preliminary analog list were all years with a La Niña the previous winter; due to the influence of residual lag effects, which I believe we are seeing now with the continued cooling of ENSO region 3.4 in the long range and rather healthy easterly trade winds

[nzucker]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Still early but I think we can count on a few things. -QBO, low solar, La Nada (coolish-neutral) and -PDO, the PDO has been dropping very consistently and deliberately since early April and we now have a pronounced, robust -PDO configuration in the Pacific.  I made sure my preliminary analog list were all years with a La Niña the previous winter; due to the influence of residual lag effects, which I believe we are seeing now with the continued cooling of ENSO region 3.4 in the long range and rather healthy easterly trade winds

Neutral after La Nina has seen some real ratters (01-02 and 11-12 following Ninas in 00-01 and 10-11). 

However, the -QBO/low solar should yield more blocking than those years. 

Not a lot of super clear signals early. NAO/AO has been pretty positive this summer but not sure how much that means.

[SnowGoose69]

9 hours ago, nzucker said:

Neutral after La Nina has seen some real ratters (01-02 and 11-12 following Ninas in 00-01 and 10-11). 

However, the -QBO/low solar should yield more blocking than those years. 

Not a lot of super clear signals early. NAO/AO has been pretty positive this summer but not sure how much that means.

Saw on twitter this morning that 60-61 62-63 81-82 and 00-01 would be the current QBO analogs.  

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Saw on twitter this morning that 60-61 62-63 81-82 and 00-01 would be the current QBO analogs.  

if next winter is anything like those analogs it will be very cold...1960-61 and 1981-82 had an oni of zero for the DJF tri monthly period...2001 was still a weak la nina with a DJF oni of -0.7...62-63 was -0.4...1962-63 was the most negative on the mei scale...1962-63 was very cold around here but dry...if it wasn't for an April blizzard 1981-82 would be a dud...60-61 is an all time great winter and 2000-01 was a very good year...nino 3.4 was +0.2 last week...all these years saw ample blocking...62-63 had a negative nao most of the winter...it had to much blocking if there is such a thing...

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, nzucker said:

Neutral after La Nina has seen some real ratters (01-02 and 11-12 following Ninas in 00-01 and 10-11). 

However, the -QBO/low solar should yield more blocking than those years. 

Not a lot of super clear signals early. NAO/AO has been pretty positive this summer but not sure how much that means.

Honestly, I think this winter is going to be very hard to predict, oscillation wise. -QBO with low solar does typically favor more blocking. I guess consideration also has to be given to the long term -AMO phase we have entered. One thing is for sure, the ENSO region 3.4 warm pool has completely and totally collapsed, as has any hope for even a very weak El Niño this winter. In fact, a cold pool has now appeared in the subsurface through that region. Going to be a tough winter forecast I think...

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Honestly, I think this winter is going to be very hard to predict, oscillation wise. -QBO with low solar does typically favor more blocking. I guess consideration also has to be given to the long term -AMO phase we have entered. One thing is for sure, the ENSO region 3.4 warm pool has completely and totally collapsed, as has any hope for even a very weak El Niño this winter. In fact, a cold pool has now appeared in the subsurface through that region. Going to be a tough winter forecast I think...

Just to add, besides the continued enhanced easterly trade winds, here is why I am favoring a cool-neutral ENSO this winter, look at the subsurface cold pool that has formed beneath region 3.4 and will upwell with the persistent strong trades: 

[snowman19]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ccdeditor/status/897070893922430977   Don't know what they are looking at, but we are not going into another La Niña. Cold-neutral? Yes. But La Niña? Nope, not in my opinion. The only model showing a weak La Niña is the CFSV2. All the other models are cold-neutral

[Paragon]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/ccdeditor/status/897070893922430977   Don't know what they are looking at, but we are not going into another La Niña. Cold-neutral? Yes. But La Niña? Nope, not in my opinion. The only model showing a weak La Niña is the CFSV2. All the other models are cold-neutral

How similar is cold neutral to weak la nina for our area?

[snowman19]

8 hours ago, Paragon said:

How similar is cold neutral to weak la nina for our area?

Cold-neutral (La Nada) can have some very similar effects as a weak La Niña would. Speaking just from an ENSO standpoint, I think an official weak La Niña, even a very weak La Niña is not happening this winter. I've been touting cold-neutral for a couple of months now, and other than the CFS, all the other models are in agreement with that 

[uncle W]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The trades this summer were actually stronger than last summer resulting in the recent Nino 3.4 decline. 

 

 

 

good bye el nino and hello la nina...there are not many years that had a failed el nino like this year...2012 did but it was a little later in the year...the other years with a rise in enso on the mei scale only to reverse back were 2000...1984...1981...1948...1944...1932...

[dmillz25]

26 minutes ago, uncle W said:

good bye el nino and hello la nina...there are not many years that had a failed el nino like this year...2012 did but it was a little later in the year...the other years with a rise in enso on the mei scale only to reverse back were 2000...1984...1981...1948...1944...1932...

Well hopefully it's an east based one

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The trades this summer were actually stronger than last summer resulting in the recent Nino 3.4 decline. 

 

 

 

I still think cold-neutral this winter but if this keeps up, we may go into a very weak La Niña in region 3.4. The ocean, atmosphere and feedbacks are very clearly in cold La Niña mode. We have had a flip to a rather robust -PDO since April. Will be interesting to see how the next few months play out...

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The stronger trades this summer caught all the the forecast models off guard. I think it may be related to the very strong WPAC warm pool. Another strong trade wind surge coming up.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/898599820364922880?p=p

Yes, very clear La Niña circulation in place, both atmosphere and ocean. Dare I say even more so than last year when we had an official weak La Niña. It took awhile but we have finally seen the PDO flip to negative. All models are now at least cold-neutral for this winter, a couple of them flip us into a La Niña now

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, very clear La Niña circulation in place, both atmosphere and ocean. Dare I say even more so than last year when we had an official weak La Niña. It took awhile but we have finally seen the PDO flip to negative. All models are now at least cold-neutral for this winter, a couple of them flip us into a La Niña now

While the PDO has declined since July, the NPM switched from negative back to positive. So we still see the lingering warmth from the super El Nino.

 

[SnowGoose69]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

While the PDO has declined since July, the NPM switched from negative back to positive. So we still see the lingering warmth from the super El Nino.

 

I'm assuming the lingering Nino effects are somewhat why the first part of last winter was so insanely warm.  It's rare to see a mild November and December when you have any La Niña, never mind one that is weak. 

[uncle W]

the last time temperatures were below normal from September to December was in 2000...other years had at least one month above normal...it was a weak la nina year...the last time we had a cold November and December was in 2000...1989 and 1980 before that year...1976, 1969, 1962 were some other years with a cold Nov-Dec...76 and 69 were el nino years...

the warmest Nov-Dec combos since 1960 are...

1979...el nino...

1982...el nino...

1990...neutral+

1994...el nino...

1999...la nina...

2001...neutral-

2006...el nino...

2011...la nina...

2015...el nino...

five of the very warm Novembers and December combo's were el nino years...one neutral+ and one neutral-...two la nina's...

[KEITH L.I]

39 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the last time temperatures were below normal from September to December was in 2000...other years had at least one month above normal...it was a weak la nina year...the last time we had a cold November and December was in 2000...1989 and 1980 before that year...1976, 1969, 1962 were some other years with a cold Nov-Dec...76 and 69 were el nino years...

the warmest Nov-Dec combos since 1960 are...

1979...el nino...

1982...el nino...

1990...neutral+

1994...el nino...

1999...la nina...

2001...neutral-

2006...el nino...

2011...la nina...

2015...el nino...

five of the very warm Novembers and December combo's were el nino years...one neutral+ and one neutral-...two la nina's...

usually if you get a moderate to strong Nino..November and December,especially December are warm..65,72,82,86,91,94,97,15.Usually La Nina's have cold Decembers 64,66,70,75,83,88,95,00,05,10 

[snowman19]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I was mostly referring to how much SST warmth is left across the North Pacific over a year after the end of the super El Nino. This last event was unique in how much warming occurred across the whole basin. The record warming actually developed before the El Nino during the summer of 2013 when the North Pacific blob emerged. Notice that the same time period after the last 2 super events in 97-98 and 82-83  had much cooler NP SST's compared to now.

 

 

 

 

The record long +PDO streak appears to have finally ended. Since early April, we have seen a steady decline in the PDO, which is now in a pronounced negative configuration for the first time in years. Beginnings of a long term change (-PDO) in the Pacific possibly? Time will tell I guess, but definitely quite a marked change from the past several years at this point in time 

[uncle W]

looking at old mei numbers shows 1932 to be an interesting match...1930-31 was a strong el nino...the winter was warm...1931-32 was a neutral year and it was warm too...1932-33 was another warm winter but it did have above normal snowfall...1932 had a failed el nino and the winter was a neutral negative year...

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, uncle W said:

looking at old mei numbers shows 1932 to be an interesting match...1930-31 was a strong el nino...the winter was warm...1931-32 was a neutral year and it was warm too...1932-33 was another warm winter but it did have above normal snowfall...1932 had a failed el nino and the winter was a neutral negative year...

Assuming we don't go into a 2nd year weak La Niña, what we have to work with now is a cold-neutral ENSO following a previous Niña, -PDO, -QBO and low solar. Not a big analog pool there for sure....

[snowman19]

Here is a good article regarding the AMO and NAO. Take a look. There is pretty good evidence that the NAO follows the long term AMO state, not every winter obviously but the majority of the time, exceptions of course. The book states that during a long-term positive AMO, the NAO is negative the majority of the winters, on the other hand during a long-term negative AMO (which we have now), the NAO is positive the majority of winters during that phase. This may explain the predominant +NAO that we have seen the last few winters; it fits with the -AMO state we are in. The record negative NAO run during the 1960's was during a long term +AMO cycle. This AMO relationship is regardless of QBO and solar variations for the most part, it seems to be a very important driver. Here is the link: https://books.google.com/books?id=fs44CgAAQBAJ&pg=PA200&lpg=PA200&dq=nao+negative+amo+atlantic&source=bl&ots=jvYEvFaZ8a&sig=1lO1viODh72DlCuSt7XF8ySBZ2U&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiKu5bTievVAhUM2IMKHdO0Dtk4ChDoAQg8MAg#v=onepage&q=nao negative amo atlantic&f=false

[SnowGoose69]

52 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Here is a good article regarding the AMO and NAO. Take a look. There is pretty good evidence that the NAO follows the long term AMO state, not every winter obviously but the majority of the time, exceptions of course. The book states that during a long-term positive AMO, the NAO is negative the majority of the winters, on the other hand during a long-term negative AMO (which we have now), the NAO is positive the majority of winters during that phase. This may explain the predominant +NAO that we have seen the last few winters; it fits with the -AMO state we are in. The record negative NAO run during the 1960's was during a long term +AMO cycle. This AMO relationship is regardless of QBO and solar variations for the most part, it seems to be a very important driver. Here is the link: https://books.google.com/books?id=fs44CgAAQBAJ&pg=PA200&lpg=PA200&dq=nao+negative+amo+atlantic&source=bl&ots=jvYEvFaZ8a&sig=1lO1viODh72DlCuSt7XF8ySBZ2U&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiKu5bTievVAhUM2IMKHdO0Dtk4ChDoAQg8MAg#v=onepage&q=nao negative amo atlantic&f=false

The AMO has been a poor excuse for negative the last few years.  I'm not sure how they've even classified that thing as negative. It looks nothing like what we had in the 70s and 80s.  I think we may be 5 years away from having a legit full blown -AMO.  People also need to step away from the ledge and realize we probably won't see a snow drought like we saw during the last -AMO or a dominant +NAO like we saw either.  We are entering uncharted territory to an extent because the only other -AMO period we have to go on occurred from 1900-1925.  The one thing I'm most interested in seeing is if we see more sub zero low events in the next 10-15 years which seem to spike during the cold AMO

[blizzardof96]

I'm thinking that some form of a La Nina is likely this winter. The ECMWF/JAMSTEC have been struggling. My thoughts on the upcoming ENSO event: https://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/2017/08/is-2017-18-la-nina-on-table.html

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The AMO has been a poor excuse for negative the last few years.  I'm not sure how they've even classified that thing as negative. It looks nothing like what we had in the 70s and 80s.  I think we may be 5 years away from having a legit full blown -AMO.  People also need to step away from the ledge and realize we probably won't see a snow drought like we saw during the last -AMO or a dominant +NAO like we saw either.  We are entering uncharted territory to an extent because the only other -AMO period we have to go on occurred from 1900-1925.  The one thing I'm most interested in seeing is if we see more sub zero low events in the next 10-15 years which seem to spike during the cold AMO

Agree, no two periods are exactly the same. The AMO index Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray created several years ago has been consistently negative the last few years and quite negative at time. Definitely not negative on the level of the 1980's, but the North Atlantic SSTs have been quite cold the last several years. Klotzbach/Gray AMO index: http://tropical.colostate.edu/colorado-state-university-amo/

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Here is a good article regarding the AMO and NAO. Take a look. There is pretty good evidence that the NAO follows the long term AMO state, not every winter obviously but the majority of the time, exceptions of course. The book states that during a long-term positive AMO, the NAO is negative the majority of the winters, on the other hand during a long-term negative AMO (which we have now), the NAO is positive the majority of winters during that phase. This may explain the predominant +NAO that we have seen the last few winters; it fits with the -AMO state we are in. The record negative NAO run during the 1960's was during a long term +AMO cycle. This AMO relationship is regardless of QBO and solar variations for the most part, it seems to be a very important driver. Here is the link: https://books.google.com/books?id=fs44CgAAQBAJ&pg=PA200&lpg=PA200&dq=nao+negative+amo+atlantic&source=bl&ots=jvYEvFaZ8a&sig=1lO1viODh72DlCuSt7XF8ySBZ2U&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiKu5bTievVAhUM2IMKHdO0Dtk4ChDoAQg8MAg#v=onepage&q=nao negative amo atlantic&f=false

if we're in a negative AMO it's certainly a weak one.   Lots of above normal water showing up basin wide outside of a few cooler areas.  Seems that since the cold pool showed up south of Greenland, we've struggled to get a -NAO.   (-EPO overwhelmed a few years so it didn't really matter)