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2017 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

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Euro keeping with the thoughts of a major cane just north of Haiti in 10 days, the GFS turns it OTS but is bouncing around with when and where quite a bit...the Euro setup could spell trouble for the SE as the trough should lift this north some but if it doesn't turn it all the way OTS then it would turn back NW towards the SE coast.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.thumb.png.2fa5e3093a6e8d7ecf13648e8c72ca3a.png

 

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16 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Curious what happens to that atlantic ridge after day 10 on the EPS...does it weaken or strengthen.  Looks like all the global ensembles have simliar look day 10.

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpa_atl_11.png

Scary would be it moving north into the weakness right along the east coast then having it ridge back in as the high over the MA scoots east......

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3 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The Euro has a mega trough at the end of the run.  That would probably turn it north and harmlessly out to sea.

Actually the setup is potentially really bad for the east coast and the 12Z didn't do much to change that, the 12Z GFS gets confused and drops/weakens the first wave in favor of a second one but that's unlikely given how strong the wave ( 93L) is ( probably a depression already) and the favorable path in front of it. The CMC pretty much caves to the Euro and both it and the Euro at 12Z have a strong cane in position to be a threat...

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4 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The Euro has a mega trough at the end of the run.  That would probably turn it north and harmlessly out to sea.

Looks re-curveish but the atl ridge got stronger/south on this run of the EPS at day 10.  We can wave to it as scoots to the east of us.

 

DIbESWIVYAALbHr.jpg

 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Actually the setup is potentially really bad for the east coast and the 12Z didn't do much to change that, the 12Z GFS gets confused and drops/weakens the first wave in favor of a second one but that's unlikely given how strong the wave ( 93L) is ( probably a depression already) and the favorable path in front of it. The CMC pretty much caves to the Euro and both it and the Euro at 12Z have a strong cane in position to be a threat...

The cane's position is a good one for east coast strikes.  If it turns out to be in that position at that time, it's definitely worth paying attention to.  That ridge in the Atlantic is in a good spot too.  But that is a really deep trough coming in that will beat the ridge back to some degree, if it verifies that strong.  I'm kind of skeptical of the trough being that strong, though.  Anyway, it's definitely something to watch closely....especially since I'll be at the beach the week of 9/10 - 9/16. :o

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9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The cane's position is a good one for east coast strikes.  If it turns out to be in that position at that time, it's definitely worth paying attention to.  That ridge in the Atlantic is in a good spot too.  But that is a really deep trough coming in that will beat the ridge back to some degree, if it verifies that strong.  I'm kind of skeptical of the trough being that strong, though.  Anyway, it's definitely something to watch closely....especially since I'll be at the beach the week of 9/10 - 9/16. :o

Yikes that all but guarantees it huh......the trick is how flat/deep the trough is, the timing etc and these are all things that we wont know for days but if the storm is close to where the Euro/CMC have it with the overall long wave pattern setup they show over the US/west ATL then this one has a chance. Since I know you will be at the beach I will begin my preparations now.

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44 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Yikes that all but guarantees it huh......the trick is how flat/deep the trough is, the timing etc and these are all things that we wont know for days but if the storm is close to where the Euro/CMC have it with the overall long wave pattern setup they show over the US/west ATL then this one has a chance. Since I know you will be at the beach I will begin my preparations now.

Haha yep, and I neglected to purchase the vacation insurance too.  So you know it's a lock!

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50 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

GFS went from nothing last run to monster cane riding up west coast of Florida landfalling in the Bend as a 949 mb cane. Should be some crazy runs between now and when/if this thing ever threatens the US.

I'm gonna need a little more Euro support, when it gets in it's wheelhouse!

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7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I'm gonna need a little more Euro support, when it gets in it's wheelhouse!

Yeah its almost a guarantee that the next GFS run will be different, but the take away is all the globals have a hurricane in the western ATL, and all have similar setups that could allow a landfall somewhere in the SE...

 

this is actually very good consensus for this range here are the major globals

59a5ff66eda90_CMC1.thumb.png.c54b0ac4e7ee142e4ad8beeca9c6e2db.png

59a5ff7296e09_GFS1.thumb.png.1f2e1053fedaa4dc2caa01a8c97b7f2b.png
 

59a5ff7cf3dfb_Euro1.thumb.png.88d3212b3e9cdd954669bf922b1532bc.png

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12z GFS shows another storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico, skimming Texas and Louisiana. Also continues to show what looks to be a major hurricane in the Atlantic hitting Bermuda. I know it can be a crapshoot this far out, but how likely is this scenario looking to play out? What factors influence the track of this potential hurricane? 

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6 hours ago, downeastnc said:

GFS develops the lead wave currently in the east ATL once it gets into the Caribbean then takes it north to a eventual landfall in the SE....in 288 hrs.

Yep posted in Jose thread definetly stays active. GFS has suport and looks like another threat is coming down the barrel. Looks like the islands could be dealing with more headache in a week or so.

 

ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_7.png

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21 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

18z GFS has a system hitting west coast of FL out of the GOM then moving it north over Atlanta.  Looks to be weak hurricane or strong TS. 

Run the entire run :) it doesnt come out of the GOM....nor does it hit the west coast of Florida....it leaves the west coast of Florida, this is the same storm that was hitting SC earlier today....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

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9 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Run the entire run :) it doesnt come out of the GOM....nor does it hit the west coast of Florida....it leaves the west coast of Florida, this is the same storm that was hitting SC earlier today....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Whoops.  You're right and it's a monster cane. 

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