NCSNOW Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Should be getting Harvey at 5:00pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 24 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Should be getting Harvey at 5:00pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 92L is the one to watch. Harvey is a yucatan/ Mexico deal. No way 92L is going ots, very high chance it affects Florida GOM then winds up in the SE so says Larry and guidance up until this point. Not set in stone but overwhelming evidence at this point in time. Big question is will or how much it can get its act together. One at the tail end,futherest East looks highly likely to stay OTS or no threat to the conus. But as always take everything with a grain of salt forecasting 7+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 On 8/14/2017 at 8:42 PM, pcbjr said: Utterly sick thought ... Yes, I cringe every time I see a tropical system show up on the NHC map that might hit land. I have seen what these things can do even in the mountains; devastating, I hate hurricane season with a passion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Well 0z goes opposite of my post last night. Euro wants to head Harvey much futher North into Texas, that should get alot of folks attn. See what the Euro and ukmet say today at 12z. 92L biggest fight is the enviroment its gonna encounter Fri and Sat. It actually was sitting on pin point precision location yesterday in relation to the Tutt that worked in its favor, which is rare and you usually get the oppossite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 92L is still struggling and should for the next couple days as it gets sheared. The only model still holding out hope for it is the CMC. It did pretty good picking up on Gert while that wave was looking bad about where 92L is now. The CMC was consistent with development NE of the Bahamas with Gert and its doing the same with 92L. The future looks bleak on all other models though so its the CMC vs all the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Down to 40% in the 5 day period for 92L per NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Nice little flare up starting up and it almost looked like a low was trying to form on the last couple visible images of the day. Still doesn't have much model support other than the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 12z CMC is lulz... check out 192-198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Gfs is closer to the coast in regards to 92L than the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 CMC/GFS/Euro all have some kind of low in various location off the SE coast, track and strength are all over the place though.....still starting to seem more likely there will be something named just offshore the SE early next week CMC and GFS actually pretty close together....obviously differences in strength, the GOM low placement also different the CMC location is more inline with a NC/SC border hit and probably why it takes it further west....and the GFS is typically a OTS placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 If CFS is any indication, September may be on the troughier side in the east, so if we do get some actual storms going, they'll probably not make it to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 22, 2017 Author Share Posted August 22, 2017 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 9m9 minutes ago If nothing else S/E Texas and La, need to prepare for heavy rain. GFS slowly moves #Harvey east across E Tx/La. 25+ inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 31 minutes ago, Solak said: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 9m9 minutes ago If nothing else S/E Texas and La, need to prepare for heavy rain. GFS slowly moves #Harvey east across E Tx/La. 25+ inches of rain. Rip Huston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 2 hours ago, Solak said: Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 9m9 minutes ago If nothing else S/E Texas and La, need to prepare for heavy rain. GFS slowly moves #Harvey east across E Tx/La. 25+ inches of rain. I'm sure none of that rain in TX or Carolina coast, will make it to the parched, drought stricken areas of the western Carolinas, specifically the GSP area. Hasn't rained here in 2 weeks, and less than 1" in the past month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 For you and Shettley Mack: per Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: For you and Shettley Mack: per Euro Yay! I get an inch total in 10 days!? better than the 1" I've gotten in the past 5 weeks, but nothing to get excited about! If I have a tropical system brush by to my East, one come in through TX /LA, and I don't score drought busting rains, I'm going to be pissed! Shetley said the only way I can get my soil moisture back , is with a tropical system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 1 hour ago, NCSNOW said: For you and Shettley Mack: per Euro I wish there was some way I could have taken that thunderstorm that blocke somebodies totality or whole event and parked it over my house! Screw the eclipse, I need rain desperately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 22, 2017 Share Posted August 22, 2017 37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I wish there was some way I could have taken that thunderstorm that blocke somebodies totality or whole event and parked it over my house! Screw the eclipse, I need rain desperately! LOl. it was staright sunshine here today with broken cu. Only way I can get it to rain is wash the car or schedule a solar eclipse. Sad thing is I was at work. In the ole Backyard nada yesterday, which is where I needed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 GFS is disturbing. Houston is basically a giant parking lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 If you have family/friends on Texas Coast, Houston seeing some catastrophic insane flooding being spit out on models. Really a dire situation being picture painted for this area with Harvey just sitting on top of them for multiple days. Seen maps with 30-40 inches of rain on them lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Harvey is getting Ready to make Katrina style headlines all next week with epic flooding. This thing Is intesyfing at alarming rate now this a.m. I was doubting the RI some models where showing but Im beleiver now after seeing how fast it got its act together over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Harvey is getting Ready to make Katrina style headlines all next week with epic flooding. This thing Is intesyfing at alarming rate now this a.m. I was doubting the RI some models where showing but Im beleiver now after seeing how fast it got its act together over night. Sad thing is , we may not see a drop of rain from it ! As its modeled to meander to the west and probably rain itself out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Yeah, this thing could be a cat 2-3 by landfall tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Sad thing is , we may not see a drop of rain from it ! As its modeled to meander to the west and probably rain itself out! But well pay for it at the pump. Then get enlightened wheres fema, why they didnt do more blah blah etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 24, 2017 Author Share Posted August 24, 2017 Meanwhile... Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago we have been saying Irma will form and be very close to the Carolinas next week. current idea. Bullish because OF PATTERN not models \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 What a beautiful picture. (GOES 16 Satellite) link is copied over from the main board tropical page. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-48-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Scary how rapid Harvey is now forecasted to strengthen. It could be a cat 3 when it hits, and they only have two days to prepare for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 RI is amazing right now. Tonight will be something to see on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Check out the Euro 12z. Whew double landfalls as a major Hurricane. Texas, then 4 days latter Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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