Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

2017 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 336
  • Created
  • Last Reply

92L is the one to watch. Harvey is a yucatan/ Mexico deal. No way 92L is going ots, very high chance it affects Florida GOM then winds up in the SE so says Larry and guidance up until this point. Not set in stone but overwhelming evidence at  this point in time. Big question is will or how much it can get its act together. 

One at the tail end,futherest East looks highly likely to stay OTS or no threat to the conus. But as always take everything with a grain of salt forecasting 7+ days out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/14/2017 at 8:42 PM, pcbjr said:

Utterly sick thought ...

Yes, I cringe every time I see a tropical system show up on the NHC map that might hit land.  I have seen what these things can do even in the mountains; devastating, I hate hurricane season with a passion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well 0z goes opposite of my post last night. Euro wants to head Harvey much futher North into Texas, that should get alot of folks attn. See what the Euro and ukmet say today at 12z.

92L biggest fight is the enviroment its gonna encounter Fri and Sat. It actually was sitting on pin point precision location yesterday in relation to the Tutt that worked in its favor, which is rare and you usually get the oppossite. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

92L is still struggling and should for the next couple days as it gets sheared. The only model still holding out hope for it is the CMC. It did pretty good picking up on Gert while that wave was looking bad about where 92L is now. The CMC was consistent with development NE of the Bahamas with Gert and its doing the same with 92L.

The future looks bleak on all other models though so its the CMC vs all the rest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CMC/GFS/Euro all have some kind of low in various location off the SE coast, track and strength are all over the place though.....still starting to seem more likely there will be something named just offshore the SE early next week

CMC and GFS actually pretty close together....obviously differences in strength, the GOM low placement also different the CMC location is more inline with a NC/SC border hit and probably why it takes it further west....and the GFS is typically a OTS placement.

599b8efa17e30_CMC1.thumb.png.462e0bf14c4845ae8dfa61d875f71acb.png

599b8f03cc4fb_GFS1.thumb.png.b4e44bf3ed2fc10ff6f4bd8fc24d2415.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Solak said:

Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 9m9 minutes ago

If nothing else S/E Texas and La, need to prepare for heavy rain. GFS slowly moves #Harvey east across E Tx/La. 25+ inches of rain.DH2NkXsUQAEF3Kl.jpg

I'm sure none of that rain in TX or Carolina coast, will make it to the parched, drought stricken areas of the western Carolinas, specifically the GSP area. Hasn't rained here in 2 weeks, and less than 1" in the past month!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

For you and Shettley Mack: per Euro

Thumbnail

Yay! I get an inch total in 10 days!? :(

better than the 1" I've gotten in the past 5 weeks, but nothing to get excited about! If I have a tropical system brush by to my East, one come in through TX /LA, and I don't score drought busting rains, I'm going to be pissed! Shetley said the only way I can get my soil moisture back , is with a tropical system!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

I wish there was some way I could have taken that thunderstorm that blocke somebodies totality or whole event and parked it over my house! Screw the eclipse, I need rain desperately!

LOl. it was staright sunshine here today with broken cu. Only way I can get it to rain is wash the car or schedule a solar eclipse. Sad thing is I was at work. In the ole Backyard nada yesterday, which is where I needed it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Harvey is getting Ready to make Katrina style headlines all next week with epic flooding. This thing Is intesyfing at alarming rate now this a.m.  I was doubting the RI some models where showing but Im beleiver now after seeing how fast it got its act together over night.

Sad thing is , we may not see a drop of rain from it ! As its modeled to meander to the west and probably rain itself out! :(

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...