downeastnc Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 35 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Looks like the same dead season we have had the last number of years. Nothing can do anything in the MDR and the only place in the whole basin marginally favorable is the BOC. You have to wonder how in the heck storms like Isabel in 2003, Hugo in 1989 ever formed. We are actually ahead of schedule so to speak on named storms, on average we get the 6th named storm by Sept 8th, and the average date for the first hurricane is Aug 10th ( and it looks like Franklin is gonna be a cane today sooooooo), last season was kinda meh up till Matthew which ended up being one of the worst hits the SE has seen in a long time, not to mention the deepest lowest pressure recorded that far south.....I guess my point is its way way to early to be making calls like this, especially with the most active 6-8 weeks of the season to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 And all it takes is one big one to blow up in September to cause a mess. That's how it usually is around here when we have any hurricanes that have a significant impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: We are actually ahead of schedule so to speak on named storms, on average we get the 6th named storm by Sept 8th, and the average date for the first hurricane is Aug 10th ( and it looks like Franklin is gonna be a cane today sooooooo), last season was kinda meh up till Matthew which ended up being one of the worst hits the SE has seen in a long time, not to mention the deepest lowest pressure recorded that far south.....I guess my point is its way way to early to be making calls like this, especially with the most active 6-8 weeks of the season to go. The first 5 had a combined ACE of 4, so it wasnt much of a start to the season. We will have to wait and watch if anything can develop of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: We are actually ahead of schedule so to speak on named storms, on average we get the 6th named storm by Sept 8th, and the average date for the first hurricane is Aug 10th ( and it looks like Franklin is gonna be a cane today sooooooo), last season was kinda meh up till Matthew which ended up being one of the worst hits the SE has seen in a long time, not to mention the deepest lowest pressure recorded that far south.....I guess my point is its way way to early to be making calls like this, especially with the most active 6-8 weeks of the season to go. Good Post as always. Your experience in this area is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 4 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: And all it takes is one big one to blow up in September to cause a mess. That's how it usually is around here when we have any hurricanes that have a significant impact. Sounds like Raleigh just can't handle any type of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 46 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Sounds like Raleigh just can't handle any type of weather. I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Nice tight swirl was Ejected moments a go before being covered up again by a little convective blob maybe 99L isn't dead after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 The 3k Nam has a interesting little low riding up the SE coast over the next several days on the 18Z run, it forms off the south coast of Florida and crawls up the coast a few hundred miles offshore, none of the other models support it though. The 06Z run kinda had it only much broader and the 12Z run didnt have it but here is the 18Z, this is the kinda scenario we look for with washed out cold fronts that hang off the SE coast. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017080918&fh=3&xpos=0&ypos=100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 4 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: Nice tight swirl was Ejected moments a go before being covered up again by a little convective blob maybe 99L isn't dead after all That sums up the MDR for many years now. Dried up pitiful waves that die miserable deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: That sums up the MDR for many years now. Dried up pitiful waves that die miserable deaths. It isn't suppose to have good conditions right now. Nothing that is happening is a surprise. The models do in fact develop it later but also show a nice recurve. Thats about as normal as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 NHC added that area off the coast of Florida near the Bahamas to the TWO, but give it little chance to develop and considering the lack of model support that's not surprising... 2. A trough of low pressure over the Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Although development appears unlikely, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of the Bahamas and Florida during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Pretty dried up as always in the atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 looks as good right now as it ever has. If it maintains this organization then it has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 As it gets totally out of the dry tropics it might become another very weak brief TS but even the subtropics arent too hot this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 13, 2017 Author Share Posted August 13, 2017 8/13 06z GFS for Aug 24 (my birthday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 Basically a Hugo track Cape Verde storm, might even be the one that NHC highlighted this morning. All the majors have it in that time frame and general location off the SE coast with no looks of a recurve......could be the first real scare of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 13, 2017 Share Posted August 13, 2017 91L has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Hope all this wet soggy ground re establishing itself across the SE, espeacilly eastern NC doesn't turn into a bad omen in 8 to 10 days. Foreign guidance is all aboard with the GFS not to mention we are officially ente ring the teeth of Cane season over the next 8 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Euro and GFS got a decent storm this go around. Invest is battling shear ATM, but should subside. I got a "better" feeling about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Latest GFS shows a desert of dry air and shear. No real storms for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Latest GFS shows a desert of dry air and shear. No real storms for some time. The same GFS that showed nothing for Gert until the storm formed a couple days ago? So far I've not been impressed with the new GFS and the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Gert looking pretty good this afternoon, should be a solid Cat1/2 well off the NC coast by tomorrow...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 On 8/13/2017 at 10:08 AM, downeastnc said: Basically a Hugo track Cape Verde storm, might even be the one that NHC highlighted this morning. All the majors have it in that time frame and general location off the SE coast with no looks of a recurve......could be the first real scare of the season. I want a chaseable storm this season. Looking for a low grade cat 3 hitting between destin and then I bend and Jacksonville to Charleston. Over the weekend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 6 hours ago, shaggy said: The same GFS that showed nothing for Gert until the storm formed a couple days ago? So far I've not been impressed with the new GFS and the tropics. take a look at the 18z for a good laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 1 hour ago, LithiaWx said: I want a chaseable storm this season. Looking for a low grade cat 3 hitting between destin and then I bend and Jacksonville to Charleston. Over the weekend lol dunno low grade Cat 3 kinda getting into scary land.....the worst part of most canes I have been in is they have hit at night, only Bertha, Floyd and Irene where day hits or partial day hits. Isabel was a day hit too but even though we got into the sw eyewall was 50 mph gust tops....Bertha,Floyd and Irene all had gust well into the 80's....Fran hit at night and is the only time I was ever actually scared in a cane, it was very dark, very loud with stuff banging and trees crashing and you couldnt see anything, the winds were sustained in the 60-70 mph range with gust to 110 and even though I am a wind junkie watching the carport lift up and down for several hrs was pretty sobering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 hours ago, LithiaWx said: I want a chaseable storm this season. Looking for a low grade cat 3 hitting between destin and then I bend and Jacksonville to Charleston. Over the weekend lol Utterly sick thought ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Shocked it's so quiet here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 92L looking pretty legit right now.....Gert really got a classic look today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Wake Up Call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 That first disturbance has gone Red in the latest update. They're sending the Hurricane Hunters in this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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