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2017 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

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We got TD 6 just off the coast of Tampa. 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
520 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Updated:  Radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with the small area of low pressure located about 75
miles west of Tampa, Florida, have continued to become better
organized, and a tropical depression has formed.  Advisories will be
initiated on this system as Tropical Depression Six within the next
hour.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
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It seems that the tropical wave from the post above means business. Both GFS and Euro have something developing. GFS is, of course, more bullish.

Interestingly, both models also see tropical development in the Bay of Campeche mid-late next week.

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12 hours ago, SteveVa said:

It seems that the tropical wave from the post above means business. Both GFS and Euro have something developing. GFS is, of course, more bullish.

Interestingly, both models also see tropical development in the Bay of Campeche mid-late next week.

CMC is onboard now as well.

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During bigger impact storms/events, Winter or other seasons, has there ever been thought to sub-forums within the S.E. States section?  Or is that taken on thread by thread basis...

Back in DC area and especially during snow events, there was so much variability - people commenting from the mountains, to the city, to the eastern shore.  Way, way different conditions separated by 40-50 miles or a couple hundred feet elevation.  Even completely opposite P-type.  Lots of people wanted a way to converse with folks near there backyard, etc.

This S.E. section seems like could have even wilder differences, stretching from NC to Florida.  LOL.

Thanks for the thoughts/comments!

 

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1 hour ago, CARDC79 said:

During bigger impact storms/events, Winter or other seasons, has there ever been thought to sub-forums within the S.E. States section?  Or is that taken on thread by thread basis...

Back in DC area and especially during snow events, there was so much variability - people commenting from the mountains, to the city, to the eastern shore.  Way, way different conditions separated by 40-50 miles or a couple hundred feet elevation.  Even completely opposite P-type.  Lots of people wanted a way to converse with folks near there backyard, etc.

This S.E. section seems like could have even wilder differences, stretching from NC to Florida.  LOL.

Thanks for the thoughts/comments!

 

I don't really see a need. The NC people take over when something is going there and the rest of us show up the other times :P

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Glad someone is taking this seriously  :D:D

I usually don't go out on a limb... but with Invest 90 and Invest 99 on everyone's minds I wanted to share who I believe could be in the impact zone the next couple weeks. I tried to narrow it down. Please share. Please be prepared! www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP

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On 8/4/2017 at 4:04 PM, NCSNOW said:

Need to be watching the western GOM. It has a better shot at affecting land (US/Mex) atm compared to our 10+ day OTS journeyman way out in the Atlantic.

 

nhc-5day-15Z-8.4.17-835px.jpg

Right on que, we have Tropical storm Franklin . Probably  gets some RI once it gets across the yucatan. 

Very early to be at the F storm in the alphabet already.

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RAH this morning...

While the tropical disturbance centered about 900 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles this morning is not currently expected to
significantly strengthen during at least the next several days, it
will bear watching as it migrates around the srn periphery of a sub-
tropical ridge over the swrn N. Atlantic through early next week.
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1 hour ago, Solak said:

RAH this morning...


While the tropical disturbance centered about 900 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles this morning is not currently expected to
significantly strengthen during at least the next several days, it
will bear watching as it migrates around the srn periphery of a sub-
tropical ridge over the swrn N. Atlantic through early next week.

strange for them to mention this. 

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55 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Time for reality check on Invest 99.

 

Barely any convection, shear double allowable limit, pocket of dry air to the West. Time to part ways from this and move on. 

I hope you aren’t serious? We have the Euro and it’s ensembles developing this, convection is increasing tonight, environment will begin improving tomorrow, warmer sea surface temperatures, pocket of dry air is moving west away from it, and plenty of time to see gradual development. 

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Looks like the same dead season we have had the  last number  of years. Nothing can do anything  in the MDR and the  only  place  in the whole basin marginally favorable is the BOC. You have to wonder how  in the heck storms  like  Isabel in 2003, Hugo in 1989 ever formed.

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