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2017 General Tropical Discussion


Solak

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Central Alabama is getting some kidney beans on radar (12:00-12:15 pm Central Time) with occasional weak rotation. I had been watching the dry slot in Mississippi, which still may go in spite of warm mid-levels. However, Alabama also has stiff low level winds, esp right off the ground. Bama has lower CAPE but skies are trying to break up a bit just east of the line. Looks like some low 80s temps have made it into east-central Alabama. 

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17 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

Possible tornado in the Metro Birmingham, Alabama area currently. Movement is northeast.

kbmx_20170622_1727_BR_0.4.png

they had it on live webcam bit it was hard to discern if it was on ground but at one point it looked like a stovepipe 

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Ft. Walton Beach Tornado…

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 75-80 mph
Path Length /statute/: 2.5 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 75 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: Jun 21 2017
Start Time: 6:18 AM CDT
Start Location: Ft. Walton Beach
Start Lat/Lon: 30.41216 / -86.5920

End Date: Jun 21 2017
End Time: 6:20 AM CDT
End Location: Ft. Walton Beach
End Lat/Lon: 30.4410 / -86.6178

Survey summary: The tornado touched down near Hollywood Blvd NE and tracked two and a half miles northeast, ending near the Falcon House Apartments. The path was non continuous and at times the only visible damage was at tree top level. The tornado produced roof damage to a couple of homes, along with damage to oak and pine trees. The tornado was near its strongest point as it moved over Ferry Park and produced damage at a baseball field.

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories.

EF0…Weak……65 to 85 mph
EF1…Weak……86 to 110 mph
EF2…Strong….111 to 135 mph
EF3…Strong….136 to 165 mph
EF4…Violent…166 to 200 mph
EF5…Violent…>200 mph

Note:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS Storm Data.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Latest GFS runs wicked track for a strong cane at the end of the run, smacks the lesser's then right sides PR then runs up the entire length of the Bahamas before slamming into the Treasure Coast area of Florida.....then it tracks inland up Florida into GA with flooding rains.....never fear though we are talking 200+ to the Lesser's and 300+ for the US hit so its just fantasy at this point.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017070612&fh=288

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

7/9 06z GFS. 324 hours.

Interesting, the wave off of Africa looks pretty healthy. Low shear, SAL looks good, and convection flaring up on the secondary like the GFS is indicating. For sure keeping a eye on this one. 

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