Solak Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 Ryan MaueVerified account @RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago Low pressure center w/Invest 93L continues west in ECMWF 12z forecast model toward South Texas. Asymmetric tropical system -- wide impacts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 HurricaneTracker App @hurrtrackerapp 1h1 hour ago 12Z CMC has shifted west and joins the EURO & UKMET. GFS Is now the eastern outlier. Lower to middle Texas coast is coming into focus. #93L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 18, 2017 Share Posted June 18, 2017 The western track gives moisture more of a chance to get pushed east into our area! Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 18, 2017 Author Share Posted June 18, 2017 I guess this is true? Mark SudduthVerified account @hurricanetrack For first time ever, NHC will issue advisories on a system that has not developed yet. "Potential tropical cyclone two" coming up at 5pm ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 19, 2017 Author Share Posted June 19, 2017 James SpannVerified account @spann 1m1 minute ago 12Z model set for 93L. Flooding and rough surf the main threat along and well east of the circulation center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 Flash flood watch for parts of GA. The front stalled out over this area is interacting with the tropical disturbance. Lots of rain incoming . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 PTC#3 is one big circulation that plus shear should keep this thing in check, that said its got a huge wind field to the east so a lot of real estate is going to see minimum tropical storm force winds and the duration could be pretty long...its a wet system with a deep moisture plume to the east side.....where exactly this thing goes and how much of that moisture gets slammed into the SE is hard to say but its looking really wet for sure in LA and the deep south of MS and AL....but there could be high rain totals well away from the center as the shear continues to push the moisture NE into the SE.... GFS para rainfall totals for the 06Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 I wish they would name this thing so I could cuss at it. We have a family wedding at Lake Lure this weekend with tons of outdoor events planned. Instead of getting ready for boating and hiking I am sitting here searching for analogs to figure out how bad the flooding might be. Ugh!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said: I wish they would name this thing so I could cuss at it. We have a family wedding at Lake Lure this weekend with tons of outdoor events planned. Instead of getting ready for boating and hiking I am sitting here searching for analogs to figure out how bad the flooding might be. Ugh!! Probably gonna get your wish, ( * ) Denotes suspect data Time: 15:52:30Z Coordinates: 27.783N 89.067W Acft. Static Air Press: 769.9 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,304 m (7,559 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.6 mb (29.70 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 153° at 53 kts (From the SSE at 61.0 mph) Air Temp: 12.9°C (55.2°F) Dew Pt: 12.8°C (55.0°F) Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 57 kts (65.6 mph) SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 49 kts (56.4 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 9 mm/hr (0.35 in/hr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 Absolute torrential downpour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said: I wish they would name this thing so I could cuss at it. We have a family wedding at Lake Lure this weekend with tons of outdoor events planned. Instead of getting ready for boating and hiking I am sitting here searching for analogs to figure out how bad the flooding might be. Ugh!! #$%^& Cindy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 The fact that Cindy is pretty disorganized and is all east side means all of the SE needs to worry about rainfall especially given how wet its been the last few weeks....the interaction between Cindy and the trough moving in over the weekend and the S/W riding along it is going to spell a lot of rain for some if not most of us.....the timing and location of the front and the S/W on it and exact track of the rems of Cindy all make that a very hard thing to forecast I don't envy the local NWS offices in the SE the next week or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The fact that Cindy is pretty disorganized and is all east side means all of the SE needs to worry about rainfall especially given how wet its been the last few weeks....the interaction between Cindy and the trough moving in over the weekend and the S/W riding along it is going to spell a lot of rain for some if not most of us.....the timing and location of the front and the S/W on it and exact track of the rems of Cindy all make that a very hard thing to forecast I don't envy the local NWS offices in the SE the next week or so.... ATL is getting hammered already. Lots of rain and round two incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 Shetley Special currently going on at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 20, 2017 Share Posted June 20, 2017 45 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: ATL is getting hammered already. Lots of rain and round two incoming. Well SC flooded two years ago with Joaquin and NC flooded last year with Matthew, guess its GA turn.....4-8 inches over N GA seems likely over the next 5 days or so.....so the part of the state most prone to flash flooding is about to get hammered. Of course I suspect if anything the models are underdoing the rainfall potential, this loop of the GOM show a ass ton of moisture available if the trough gets down fast enough to tap into it then yikes..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 2 hours ago, downeastnc said: Well SC flooded two years ago with Joaquin and NC flooded last year with Matthew, guess its GA turn.....4-8 inches over N GA seems likely over the next 5 days or so.....so the part of the state most prone to flash flooding is about to get hammered. Of course I suspect if anything the models are underdoing the rainfall potential, this loop of the GOM show a ass ton of moisture available if the trough gets down fast enough to tap into it then yikes..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html Looks like it. 3-6" expected through Friday night in my area along I-20. Usually these totals end up busting high but perhaps the tropical nature will cause a bust the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 The worlds best local met KK on our local fox affiliate, says no heavy rain from this for our area! 1-2" at most and that's the biggest totals on the most aggressive models. Just scattered showers according to her!? Same one who calls for snow only when the grounds white ! SMDH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Radar image from earlier this evening of the multiple areas of rotation on radar tonight with the rainbands from Tropical Storm Cindy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 As usual, very juicy dewpoint temperatures coming north too tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 20 hours ago, downeastnc said: PTC#3 is one big circulation that plus shear should keep this thing in check, that said its got a huge wind field to the east so a lot of real estate is going to see minimum tropical storm force winds and the duration could be pretty long...its a wet system with a deep moisture plume to the east side.....where exactly this thing goes and how much of that moisture gets slammed into the SE is hard to say but its looking really wet for sure in LA and the deep south of MS and AL....but there could be high rain totals well away from the center as the shear continues to push the moisture NE into the SE.... GFS para rainfall totals for the 06Z run Not sure where all the moisture went, but looks a lot dryer for the Carolinas from Cindys moisture! I guess a front is coming through this weekend , so there is still hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Not sure where all the moisture went, but looks a lot dryer for the Carolinas from Cindys moisture! I guess a front is coming through this weekend , so there is still hope! Yeah she looks like hell today, and this is considering she has never looked organized at all, if she cant keep it together then the moisture transport wont be as strong etc.....models keep lowering totals which given the last few months isnt a bad thing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 10 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: The worlds best local met KK on our local fox affiliate, says no heavy rain from this for our area! 1-2" at most and that's the biggest totals on the most aggressive models. Just scattered showers according to her!? Same one who calls for snow only when the grounds white ! SMDH remember 2 years ago with the floods in Columbia she was calling for a 20% chance of rain 2 days before even though every model was showing 8-12 inches of rain. Good ole KK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 1 hour ago, No snow for you said: remember 2 years ago with the floods in Columbia she was calling for a 20% chance of rain 2 days before even though every model was showing 8-12 inches of rain. Good ole KK. I remember that! Looks like she may be right this time ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Just got back to Navarre from a Disney trip. Breezy, soupy, & wet conditions (6+") imby. Multiple tornado warnings today with one confirmed touch down in Ft Walton Beach. Some minor damage reported. Here is a pic from this morning at approximately 6:30 local time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Awesome pic Don!! Were you actively hunting or was this a lucky encounter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 7 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: I remember that! Looks like she may be right this time ! Almost certainly going to be right. Some parts of our area will not see 1 drop of rain from this system. Any rain up to now has not really been from the tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Awesome pic Don!! Were you actively hunting or was this a lucky encounter?Wish I could take credit but I was in Orlando. Just got back from the beach and it's a typical storm kinda day!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted June 21, 2017 Share Posted June 21, 2017 Tornado damage from Fort Walton Beach FL. TS Cindy 6/21/17Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 22, 2017 Share Posted June 22, 2017 More rain today with dew points between 75-80. Humid as can be and like the fourth day in a row with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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